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November 2022


Stormlover74
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Rains associated with Nicole spread into the region today. Through 7 pm, rainfall totals include:

Islip: 0.47"
New York City: 0.81"
Newark: 0.78"
Philadelphia: 0.44"

As expected based on the storm's track, more rain has fallen in eastern Ohio, western Pennsylvania, and western New York. Rainfall totals include:

Buffalo: 1.36" (near the daily record of 1.40")
Youngstown, OH: 2.18" (old record: 1.10", 1898)

There will be additional periods of rain overnight as Nicole moves northward. A general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall with locally higher amounts is likely by tomorrow afternoon. Parts of the region could see strong thunderstorms, as well. In addition, as the system undergoes baroclinic deepening while heading toward upstate New York and northern New England, it could turn very windy late tonight into tomorrow. Parts of the region could see gusts of 50 mph.

With the region's being in the storm's warm sector, the mercury could reach or exceed 70° tomorrow in parts of the area. Currently, Newark has 7 70° days this month. That ties the November record, which was set in 1975 and tied in 2020. JFK Airport has seen 5 70° days, which ties the November record set in 1975.

Following the storm and cold frontal passage, much colder air will pour into the region tomorrow night. Minimum temperatures will dip into the 30s for the first time this season Sunday night or Monday morning at LaGuardia Airport (will be the 5th latest first occurrence) and Central Park (will tie 1946 as the 2nd latest first occurrence). Highs will recover to no higher than the upper 40s and perhaps lower 50s through the middle of next week.

Beyond mid-month, Atlantic blocking could try to develop. Early indications suggest that the blocking won't be strong. Its duration, should it develop, remains uncertain.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around November 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.71°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the winter.

The SOI was +22.46 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.822 today.

On November 9 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.961 (RMM). The November 8-adjusted amplitude was 1.239 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 76% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 50.1° (2.1° above normal).

 

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3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

At midnight, Newark had a temperature of 71 degrees. Newark has now seen its 9th 70-degree or warmer day in November. The old record of 7 days was set in 1975 and tied in 2020. 2022 is the only year that had more 70-degree days in November (9 days) than in October (7 days). Records go back to 1931. 

I'll do you one better, they just tied their record high (at three in the morning)!

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23 minutes ago, bluewave said:

yeah this is why I hate tropical weather, it makes me extremely sick

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Overnight, a surge of warmth east of Nicole's remnants sent the mercury soaring into the upper 60s and lower 70s. Numerous records were tied or broken:

Bridgeport: 69° (old record: 67°, 2021)
Islip: 68° (old record: 67°, 2014)
New Haven: 73° (old record: 68°, 2021)
New York City-JFK: 67° (old record: 66°, 2014 and 2021)
New York City-LGA: 69° (tied record set in 2020 and tied in 2021)
Newark: 74° (tied record set in 1938)
Westhampton: 68° (old record: 66°, 2012)
White Plains: 68° (old record: 65°, 2021)

 

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Morning thoughts…

The sun will return. It will be unseasonably warm. High temperatures will reach the upper 60s and lower 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 69°

Newark: 72°

Philadelphia: 70°

Much colder air will press into the region tonight setting up an extended period with below normal temperatures.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 55.2°; 15-Year: 55.2°

Newark: 30-Year: 56.2°; 15-Year: 56.4°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 57.2°; 15-Year: 57.1°

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14 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Morning thoughts…

The sun will return. It will be unseasonably warm. High temperatures will reach the upper 60s and lower 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 69°

Newark: 72°

Philadelphia: 70°

Much colder air will press into the region tonight setting up an extended period with below normal temperatures.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 55.2°; 15-Year: 55.2°

Newark: 30-Year: 56.2°; 15-Year: 56.4°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 57.2°; 15-Year: 57.1°

Don how close are NYC and JFK to most 70 degree highs in November?

 

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31 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Overnight, a surge of warmth east of Nicole's remnants sent the mercury soaring into the upper 60s and lower 70s. Numerous records were tied or broken:

Bridgeport: 69° (old record: 67°, 2021)
Islip: 68° (old record: 67°, 2014)
New Haven: 73° (old record: 68°, 2021)
New York City-JFK: 67° (old record: 66°, 2014 and 2021)
New York City-LGA: 69° (tied record set in 2020 and tied in 2021)
Newark: 74° (tied record set in 1938)
Westhampton: 68° (old record: 66°, 2012)
White Plains: 68° (old record: 65°, 2021)

 

Wow Newark and New Haven!  How does New Haven get warmer than all the NYC airports and NYC when they are to our north and east and on the Sound?

 

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The next 8 days are averaging   46degs.(42/51) or -2.      To get to Normal for the month need>>> -5.8 average starting today.      To be the warmest Nov. ever>>> +2.1

Month to date is   61.0[+10.0].         Should be 54.7[+5.0] by the 20th.     Still at a record pace if maintained for the full month.

GFSens. is a bore.      The OP goes into the 50's and 60's after the 22nd however.     Realize that the 45 of Monday would need to be 40 on the 27th. to be as BN---but it isn't---ie. the average T drops 5 degrees across the range.

1668211200-g4lsADSrtQM.png

Reached 64 here yesterday.

Today:  67-70 early, wind w. to nw.-breezy, var. clouds, 51 tomorrow AM.

{Low so far was 65* overnight}  67*(95%RH) at 6am.     68* at 9am.       67* at Noon.      Reached  71* at 3pm.        65* 7pm-9pm.       64* at 10pm.

 

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41 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Overnight, a surge of warmth east of Nicole's remnants sent the mercury soaring into the upper 60s and lower 70s. Numerous records were tied or broken:

Bridgeport: 69° (old record: 67°, 2021)
Islip: 68° (old record: 67°, 2014)
New Haven: 73° (old record: 68°, 2021)
New York City-JFK: 67° (old record: 66°, 2014 and 2021)
New York City-LGA: 69° (tied record set in 2020 and tied in 2021)
Newark: 74° (tied record set in 1938)
Westhampton: 68° (old record: 66°, 2012)
White Plains: 68° (old record: 65°, 2021)

 

Are those today or yesterday? I saw JFK broke their record for today already

Nevermind I see ewr was 74 at 3 am. Crazy

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19 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Dont mind the 70s as long as it is dry....just no more of these tropical systems

 

The first 12 days of November are running +10 to +15 for high temperatures across the entire region.This is in par with December 2015 type extremes. But it won’t have the longevity for the entire month.

 

1E21A0C8-18E4-44C6-A0DA-E1DEBDF35EA7.thumb.jpeg.99dee5f2564ca4715d6eeafa8edbb97e.jpeg

 

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21 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Looks like a big turnaround of the pattern....caused by Nicole?

Not really caused by Nicole. But Nicole is helping to pull the trough further east. The record EPO block is related to the EA and Pacific pattern.

 

09EAB94E-DAFC-4245-B107-FA9ECA156197.thumb.png.615e87d562e0fab5bac3adb0f9f3f484.png

 

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