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November 2022 temperature forecast contest

Roger Smith
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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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The contest has a very tight leaderboard now with four (provisionally counting October) ahead of Consensus and a few more right behind. Check out the provisional scoring in the October thread, I have posted the annual update a bit ahead of normal schedule for your interest. But both the October and annual scoring is still subject to some variations, as I narrow down the projections towards final outcomes. 

So with that in mind, here's our November contest, the usual nine locations with forecasts of temperature anomalies in F deg relative to the 1991-2020 "normals" ... factoid from our extreme forecast tracking, so far this year, of the 90 forecasts the coldest value predicted won or came second in more cases (38) than the warmest (28). As has been the case in several previous years, about two-thirds of the forecasts see a top score from the extreme ends of the range or close to that, but the frequency of colder months has increased relative to the usual distribution which has tended to favor warmer than average months in the past. (sometimes an extreme cold forecast will still be above normal though, it's a case where the field went too warm, but most of these cases are related to actual cold anomalies like the one being created this month in DCA) ... any month where the third most extreme forecast takes high score is not counted but some of those are close enough to follow the same pattern, with the two more extreme values still scoring above the field average. Some of the cases where second most extreme wins (these count as losses for extreme forecasts) are also cases where the "loss" represents a higher score than most, sometimes the other way round (one person goes far too extreme and scores lower than consensus, but that case is rare so far this year).

For the contest, predict the anomalies for

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

and the deadline is 06z Tuesday November 1st or late on the evening of Oct 31st, trick or treat. 

(will introduce the snowfall contest with the December thread)

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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Table of forecasts for November 2022

 

FORECASTER ________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA

RJay __________________________+5.0 _+7.5 _+7.0 ___ +7.0 _+4.0 _+4.0 __ +1.5 _+2.0 __ 0.0

StormchaserChuck! __________+5.0 _+5.0 _+5.0 ___ +3.5 _+5.0 _+5.0 __+2.0 _+3.0 _+1.0

hudsonvalley21 _______________+4.1 _+3.9 _+3.7 ___ +4.7 _+3.0 _+3.1 __ +2.0 _+1.0 _+0.3

Roger Smith __________________+3.8 _+4.8 _+5.7 ___+4.9 _+3.8 _+2.8 __ -1.1 _ -1.0 _ -0.2

wxallannj _____________________+3.5 _+3.7 _+4.2 ___ +3.0 _+3.7 _+2.6 __ +1.6 _+1.5 _-1.0

Tom __________________________ +3.1 _+3.5 _+3.6 ___ +4.0 _+3.8 _+3.6 __ +1.2 _+1.1 _+0.6

___ Consensus _______________ +3.1 _+3.5 _+3.6 ___ +3.5 _+3.7 _+2.8 __ +1.5 _+1.0 _-0.2

DonSutherland1 ______________+2.9 _+3.0 _+3.1 ___ +4.7 _+2.6 _+2.9 __ +2.5 _+0.1 _ -0.8

BKViking _____________________ +2.3 _+2.4 _+2.4 ___ +1.4 _+2.0 _+1.5 __ +1.2 _+1.0 _ -1.0

wxdude64 ___________________ +2.1 _ +2.6 _+2.7 ___ +3.3 _+2.2 _+2.4 __ +1.9 _-0.5 _ -1.4

RodneyS ______________________+1.3 _+2.3 _+2.2 ___ +2.5 _+1.8 _+1.9 __ +1.4 _-0.9 _ -2.1

Scotty Lightning ______________+1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ +1.0 _ +1.5 _+2.0 __ +1.0 _+1.5 _+0.5

___ Normal ____________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

_________________________________________________________

Forecasts are color coded, and Normal is coldest for DCA, NYC, BOS, ORD, ATL, IAH.

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Roger Smith

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Updated reports on anomalies and projections: 

 

________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

_11th __ (10d anom) ___ +10.2_ +9.7 _+10.2 __+11.9 _+10.5_ +6.3 __ +2.1 _ -5.9 _ -6.2

_21st __ (20d anom) ___ +3.4_ +3.6 _ +5.3 ___+1.4 __+1.5 _  -2.7 __ -5.4 _ -6.2 _ -5.2 

 

_11th __ (p20d anom)___ +4.0_ +4.0 _ +4.0 __ +2.0 _ +4.0 _ +2.0 __ -4.0 _ -3.0 _ -5.0

_11th __ (p27 anom) ____ +3.0_ +3.0 _+3.0 __ +2.0 _ +3.0 _ +2.0 __ -2.0 _ -2.0 _ -3.5

 

_21st __ (p30 anom) ____ +2.5 _+2.0 _+4.0 __ +1.5 _ +2.0 _ -1.5 ___ -3.0 _ -4.0 _ -3.5

_26th __ (p30 anom) ____+3.0 _+3.0 _+4.0 __ +2.5 _ +2.0 _ -1.5 ___ -3.5 _ -4.5 _ -3.5

 

_ 1st __ anomalies _______+2.6 _+2.9 _+4.3 __ +2.1 _ +2.4 _ -1.6 ___ -3.8 _ -4.9 _ -4.5

 

--------------

(11th) _ After a very warm start in eastern and central regions, much colder air will be arriving within a few days, the impact will be particularly strong for ORD and DEN, somewhat less for the eastern stations. This will push the very large anomalies back into a more typical range. After the 21st the flow appears to return to a modified mild pattern so the values reached by the 20th are held relatively close, with any severe cold in the western regions also flushed out for a time. 

(21st) _ The very cold spell has more or less cancelled out most of the very warm start, while the west stayed cool. The last ten days of the month appear closer to normal or even slightly above in some cases, so the projections are based on averages between zero and +2 for that interval. 

(27th) _ The provisionals have been adjusted in some cases. 

Preliminary scoring has been adjusted also ... 

(1st Dec) _ Final anomalies are being posted, scoring adjusted when these are confirmed. 

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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Final scoring for November 2022

These scores are based on final anomalies as posted in the table above. IAH, DEN, PHX and SEA are scored from minimum progression (60, 54, 48 ... 12, 6, 0) with some values boosted by 2-4 points to account for actual differentials if they were within one or two tenths of the next higher progression value. Normal has raw score for IAH, and scaled adjusted scores for DEN, PHX and SEA. DEN has an odd situation for scoring in that one forecast (mine) was quite close to nullifying minimum progression and all the other forecasts would have scored in the range 00-20 on raw scores alone. However, I determined that the scores derived from the usual minimum progression rules did not impose any significant penalties on any of the higher scoring contenders and I tried to keep the differentials similar to what they had been with the raw scores. Given that I am well outside the scoring range for most forecasters on an annual basis, my own disadvantage in this application has no actual result for the contest outcome.

 

FORECASTER ________________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent _ c/e _DEN_PHX_SEA__west ___ TOTAL

BKViking _____________________ 94 _ 90 _ 62 __ 246 __ 86 _ 92_ 60^__ 238 _484 _ 50^_ 36^_ 48^__134 ____ 618

RodneyS _____________________ 74 _ 88 _ 58 __ 220 __ 92 _ 88 _ 54^__ 234 _ 454 _ 40^_ 58^_ 60^__158 ____ 612

wxdude64 ___________________ 90 _ 94 _ 68 __ 252 __ 76 _ 96 _ 42^__ 214 _ 466 __ 22^_ 48^_ 54^__124 ____590

wxallannj _____________________ 82 _ 84 _ 98 __ 264 __ 82 _ 74 _ 36^__ 192 _ 456 _ 28^_ 18^_ 48^__094 ____550

___ Consensus _______________ 90 _ 88 _ 86 __ 264 __ 72 _ 74 _ 32^__ 178 _ 442 _ 34^_ 36^_ 30^__100 ____ 542

DonSutherland1 ______________ 94 _98 _ 76__ 268 __ 48 _ 96 _ 28^__ 172 _ 440 _ 10^_ 42^_ 40^__ 092 ____ 532

Roger Smith __________________ 76 _ 62 _ 72 __ 210 __ 44 _ 72 _ 32^__ 148 _ 358 _ 60^_60^_ 30^__150 ____ 508

Tom __________________________ 90 _ 88 _ 86 __ 264 __ 62 _ 72 _ 12^__ 146 _ 410 _ 50^_ 28^_ 10^__088 ____ 498

hudsonvalley21 _______________ 70 _ 80 _ 88 __ 238 __ 48 _ 88 _ 22^__ 158 _ 396 _ 16^_ 36^_ 18^__070 ____466

Scotty Lightning ______________68 _ 62 _ 34 __ 164 __ 78 _ 82 _ 52^ __ 212 _ 374 _ 54^_ 18^_ 16^__088 ____ 464

___ Normal ____________________48 _ 42 _ 14 __ 104 __ 58 _ 52 _ 68 __ 178 _ 282 _ 57^ _ 44^_ 26^__ 127 ____409

StormchaserChuck! __________ 52 _ 58 _ 86 ___196 __ 72 _ 48 _ 00 __ 120 _ 316 _ 16^_ 00 _ 04^__020 ____ 336

RJay __________________________52 _ 08 _ 46 __ 106 __ 02 _ 68 _ 06^__ 076 _ 182 _ 34^_ 06^_ 26^__066 ____248

__________________________________________________________________

 

Extreme forecast report

DCA, NYC, BOS, ORD, ATL each finished close enough to consensus that no extreme forecasts scored higher than third. ORD and ATL narrowly missed qualifying as a win-loss situation but third coldest forecast took high score (ORD, tied ATL). 

IAH, DEN, PHX and SEA are all wins for coldest forecasts, from BKViking (IAH), Roger Smith (DEN, PHX) and RodneyS (SEA). Normal also scores a win for IAH. 

=========

 

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Roger Smith

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=== <<<<< _______ Annual Scoring Report (Jan - Nov 2022) __________>>>>> ===

Total scores for each location, region ... best scores for locations in red, for regions in bold type. 

RodneyS has extended his lead while wxdude64 has moved into second place with DonSutherland1 close behind at third. Unfortunately so_whats_happening was unable to enter November and dropped from fourth to eighth. Consensus therefore moves up one rank to the gap between 3rd and 4th. Tom, BKViking, wxallannj and hudsonvalley21 have moved up to occupy 4th to 7th, in so doing wxallannj has also moved past hudsonvalley21. Scotty Lightning (9th and virtually tied 8th) is now ahead of RJay who fell to 10th, and your host remains in 11th. Normal has moved ahead of Rjay to occupy the gap between 9th and 10th. Stormchaser Chuck's prorated score would still leave him in 12th. so_whats_happening now has a prorated score also, and that would rank third. 

I have added differentials to show how many points you would need to gain over the leader to catch up. An improvement by 1.0 F for all nine forecasts would yield a net of 90 points, so divide your differential by 90 to estimate how much of an improvement you would need in order to catch the leader (or by taking the difference in differentials, any other forecaster ahead of you).

 

FORECASTER ___________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east_ ORD_ATL_IAH __ cent _ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA __west __ TOTAL (diff)

 

RodneyS ________________814 _776 _662__2252__726 _892 _656__2274 _4526 __800 _888 _736__2424 ____6950 _ 0

wxdude64 ______________ 761 _821 _787 __2369__803 _813_ 634__2250_4619 __708 _832 _683 __2223 ____6842 (-108)

DonSutherland1 ________ 854 _834 _770__2458__802 _756 _564__2122 _4580 __610 _844 _774 __2228 ____6808 (-142)

 

___ Consensus ___________772 _806 _750__2328__774 _772 _584__2130 _4458__744 _824 _711 __2279 ____6737 (-213)

 

Tom _____________________ 777 _827 _717 __2321__778 _769 _679__2226 _4547 __771 _723 _588 __2082____6629 (-321)

BKViking ________________ 754 _794 _708 __2256__720 _722 _554__1996 _4252 __796 _748 _708 __2252____6504 (-446)

wxallannj ________________684 _752 _696 __2132 __738 _648 _562__1948 _4080 __780 _778 _750__2308____6388 (-562)

hudsonvalley21 __________694 _778 _790 __2262__708 _730 _552__1990 _4252__ 674 _818 _606__ 2098____6350 (-600)

so_whats_happening (10)_644 _702 _698__2044__693 _718_560__1971 _4015 __ 664 _768 _744 __2176 ____6191 (-759)

Scotty Lightning _________728 _742 _700 __2170 __726 _702 _610__2038 _4208 __658 _784 _534__1976____6184 (-766) 

_____ Normal _____________758 _718 _610 __2086 __720 _734 _650 __2104 _4190 __605 _754 _562__1921____6111 (-839)

RJay _____________________658 _710 _776 __2144__651 _704 _510__1865 _4009 __740 _630 _645 __2015____6024 (-926)

Roger Smith _____________680 _650 _476 __1806 __594 _642 _558__1794 _3600 __818 _804 _767__2389____5989 (-961)

Stormchaser Chuck (8/11)_499_527 _479 __1505 __462 _559 _355 _1376 _2881 __432 _510 _329 __1271____ 4152

__ __ prorated Stormchaser Chuck would compare at 5710 total points. 

__ __ and so_whats_happening would compare at 6810 total points.

=========================================

__ Best Forecasts __ 

* tied for high score with one other forecaster __ ^ tied for high score with three others (Mar). 

 

FORECASTER ________ DCA_NYC_BOS _east_ ORD_ATL_IAH_ cent _c/e__ DEN_PHX_SEA _west _ total

RodneyS ______________ 2**__ 0 ___ 1*___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 5 ___ 2 ___3 ___ 3___ 2*___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 2*___2__ Sep,Oct

wxdude64 ____________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 2*___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___1__ Jan

DonSutherland1 _______5**^__3 ___0 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1*___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____4____1 ____2__ Feb,May

___ Consensus ________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0 ___ 0

Tom ___________________ 1^ __ 2 ___ 1 ___ 2  ___1 ___ 2 ___ 2 ___ 3 ___ 1 ___ 1*___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___ 1 __ Mar

BKViking ______________ 3*^__ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0___ 0 ___ 1__ Nov  

wxallannj ______________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___2*___ 1 ___ 2*___2 ___0

hudsonvalley21 _______ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1*___ 1*___0

so_whats_happening __ 1*___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1*___ 1__ Jul

Scotty Lightning _______2**__ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1*___ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0

___ Normal _____________3 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 2 ___ 1 ____0 ___ 0

RJay ___________________1^___ 0 ___ 3*___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1__ Apr

Roger Smith ___________1 ___ 3 ___ 1*___2 ___ 2*___ 0 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 6*___ 2 ___2*___ 5*___ 2__Jun, Aug

Stormchaser Chuck ___2 ___ 1 ___ 2*___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 1 ____ 0

=========================

EXTREME FORECAST SCORING 

(second total in brackets adjusts for tied wins which are indicated by * in monthly logs only -- so far this has occurred twelve times, once for SEA in Feb, once for IAH in Apr, once for DEN in May and again Aug, once for BOS in June, once for SEA in June, once for DCA in July and also Aug and Sep, once for BOS in July and once for ORD in July and again Aug.) Normal could also be tied for extreme forecast wins but this is not tracked.

(in March, four shared a win for DCA shown by ^ -- this counts as 0.25 in the second bracketed total).

(wins for Normal are in addition to forecaster wins and do not replace them _ Normal is not charged with a loss _ would have done so in April for DEN)

So far, 70 of 99 forecasts qualify, 28 warmest and 42 coldest; Jan 0-5, Feb 4-4, Mar 2-2, Apr 3-6, May 4-2, June 3-4, July 4-3, Aug 4-5, Sep 1-3, Oct 3-4, Nov 0-4. 

 

FORECASTER __________ Jan _Feb _Mar _Apr _May _Jun_ Jul _Aug _ Sep _Oct _Nov __TOTAL (adj for ties)

 

Roger Smith ___________ --- _ 1- 1 _ 2-0 _5-1_ ---_ 4**0 _ 0-3 _3**0 _1-0 _ --- _ 2-0 __ 18-5 (16-5)

RodneyS _______________ --- _ 1-0 _ --- _ --- _ 2*-0_ 1*-0 _2*-0_3-2 _1*0 _ 2-0 _ 1-0 __13-2 (11.0-2)

____ Normal ____________ --- _ 1-0 _ --- _ 1-0 _ --- _ 2-0 _ _ 1-1 _ 1-0 _ 3-0_ 2-0 _ 1-0 __12-1

Stormchaser Chuck ____ 2-1 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 3-0 _2-0 _1*-0 _ --- _ --- _ 2-0 _ ---- __ 10-1 (9.5- 1)

DonSutherland1 _______ --- _ 4*-0_ 1^-0_1-0_ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 1*-0 _ --- _ --- __ 1-0 _ ---- __10-0 (8.25 - 0)

RJay ___________________ --- _ --- _ 1^-0_ 1*-0_--- _ ---- _ 3*-0 _ 1-1_ --- _ 1-0 _ ---- __ 7-1 (6.25 - 1)

Tom ____________________ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 2^-0_1-0_ 1*-0_ ---- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ ---- __ 6-0 (4.75 - 0)

wxdude64 ______________1-0 _ 3*-0_ --- _ --- _ --- _ ---- _1*-0 _--- _ --- _ --- _ ---- __ 5-0 (4.0 - 0)

Scotty Lightning _______ --- _ --- _ --- _ ---- _ --- _ ---- _ ---- _ 2**0_ 3*0 _---_ ----__5-0 (3.5 - 0)

BKViking _______________ --- _ --- _ 1^-0_ --- _ --- _ ---- _ ---- _ --- __ --- _ 1-0 _ 1-0 __3-0 (2.25 - 0)

so_whats_happening __ 1-0 _ --- _ --- _ 1-0 _ --- _ ---- _ ---- _ 1*-0 _--- _ ---- _---- __3-0 (2.5 - 0)

hudsonvalley21 _________--- _ --- _ --- _ 1*-1 _ --- _ ---- _1*-0 _ 1-0 _ --- _ --- __ ---- __3-1 (2.0 - 1)

wxallannj _______________--- _ --- _ 0-1 _ ---- _ --- _ 1*-0 _ 1-0 _ 1*-1 _ --- _ --- _ ---- __3-2 (2.0 -1)

===============================

(Normal is not considered for ties and can score a loss when 0.0 is between a win and a loss, but not when 0.0 is lower than a winning low forecast)

 
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Roger Smith

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Four Seasons contest __ autumn 2022 portion _ Sep 2022, Oct 2022, Nov 2022 __

final outcome 

 

The table is arranged in order of total points for the entire contest. .

 

________________________WINTER __ Winter ____ SPRING _ Spring ____ SUMMER _ Summer ____ AUTUMN _ Autumn

FORECASTER _________ TOTAL ___ Points _____ TOTAL __ Points _____ TOTAL ___ Points ______ TOTAL ____ Points ____ Contest Total

 

RodneyS ________________ 1600 ______ 7 __________ 1868 _____ 5 ________1988 ______ 6 __________2012 ______10 _________ 28

Don Sutherland 1 ________1623 ______ 10 _________ 1962 _____ 7 ________1886 ______ 3 __________1836 ______ 6 __________ 26

__ Consensus ___________ 1513 ______ 3.5_________ 1865 _____4.9 _______1960 ______5.0_________ 1768 _______3.8 ________17.2

wxdude64 ______________ 1535 ______ 4 __________ 1820 ______ 4 ________1884 ______ 2 _________ 1838_______7 __________17

Roger Smith _____________ 1043 ______ 1 __________ 1413 _______1 ________2008 ______10 _________1776 ______ 4 __________16

wxallannj ________________1572 ______ 6 __________ 1646 ______ 1 _______ 2000 ______ 7 __________1570  ______ 1 __________15

Tom _____________________ 1309 ______ 1 __________ 1973 _____ 10 ________1880 ______ 1 __________1740 ______ 3 __________15

so_whats_happening ____ 1499 ______3 __________1770 _______3 _______ 1960 ______ 5 __________1252 (2/3)__ 1 __________12

hudsonvalley21 _________ 1540 ______ 5 __________ 1692 ______ 1 _________1920 ______ 4 _________1580 ______ 1 __________11

BKViking ________________ 1467 ______ 2 ___________1762 _______2 ________1846 ______ 1 _________ 1800 ______ 5 _________ 10

RJay ____________________ 1351 ______ 1 ___________ 1952 ______ 6 ________1872 _______ 1 _________1350 ______ 1 __________ 9

__Normal ________________ 1173 _______1 ___________1630 _______1 ________ 1762 ______ 1 _________1683 ______ 2.6 ________5.6

Scotty Lightning _________ 1138 ______ 1 ___________1750 _______ 1 ________1878 ______ 1 _________ 1616 ______ 2 __________5

Stormchaser Chuck ______ 674 (1/3) __0 _________ 1117 (2/3) __ 1 ________1176 (2/3) _ 1 _________ 1185 ______ 1 __________ 3

============================================

Scoring is based on 10 for first place, 7 for second, down to 2 points for 7th and 1 point for anyone else who entered at least 2/3 of contests. 

Consensus and Normal can score decimal points if their totals are between two forecaster totals 2 to 10, and the decimal is based on the position relative to those forecasters. 

It was a very close finish quite similar to the annual contest with RodneyS just edging out DonSutherland1. Congrats to both of them, I've done better in this contest format because all my low scores were in the winter and spring portions which is where I got so far behind on points.

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hudsonvalley21

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7 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

Four Seasons contest __ autumn 2022 portion _ Sep 2022, Oct 2022, Nov 2022 __

final outcome (preliminary until confirmed at end of Nov)

 

The table is arranged in order of total points for the entire contest. .

 

__________________________WINTER __ Winter ____ SPRING _ Spring ____ SUMMER _ Summer ____ AUTUMN _ Autumn

FORECASTER ___________ TOTAL ___ Points _____ TOTAL __ Points _____ TOTAL ___ Points ______ TOTAL ____ Points ____ Contest Total

 

RodneyS __________________ 1600 ______ 7 __________ 1868 _____ 5 ________1988 ______ 6 __________2002 ______10 _________ 28

Don Sutherland 1 __________1623 ______ 10 _________ 1962 _____ 7 ________1886 ______ 3 __________1798 ______ 5 __________ 25

__ Consensus _____________ 1513 ______ 3.5_________ 1865 _____4.9 _______1960 ______5.0_________ 1714 _______3.7 ________17.1

wxdude64 ________________ 1535 ______ 4 __________ 1820 ______ 4 ________1884 ______ 2 _________ 1812 _______7 __________17

Roger Smith _______________ 1043 ______ 1 __________ 1413 _______1 ________2008 ______10 _________1736 ______ 4 __________16

wxallannj __________________1572 ______ 6 __________ 1646 ______ 1 _______ 2000 ______ 7 __________1510  ______ 1 __________15

Tom _______________________ 1309 ______ 1 __________ 1973 _____ 10 ________1880 ______ 1 __________1680 ______ 3 __________15

so_whats_happening ______ 1499 ______ 3 __________1770 _______3 _______ 1960 ______ 5 __________1252 (2/3)__1 __________12

hudsonvalley21 ___________ 1540 ______ 5 __________ 1692 ______ 1 _________1920 ______ 4 _________1536 ______ 1 __________12

BKViking __________________ 1467 _______2 ___________1762 _______2 ________1846 ______ 1 _________ 1810 ______ 6 _________ 11

RJay ______________________ 1351 ______ 1 ___________ 1952 ______ 6 ________1872 _______ 1 _________1304 ______ 1 __________ 9

__Normal __________________ 1173 _______ 1 ___________1630 _______1 ________ 1762 ______ 1 _________1706 ______ 3.4 ________ 6.4

Scotty Lightning ___________ 1138 ______ 1 ___________1750 _______ 1 ________1878 ______ 1 _________ 1632 ______ 2 __________5

Stormchaser Chuck ________ 674 (1/3) __ 0 ________ 1117 (2/3) __ 1 ________1176 (2/3) _ 1 _________ 1129 ______ 1 __________ 3

============================================

Scoring is based on 10 for first place, 7 for second, down to 2 points for 7th and 1 point for anyone else who entered at least 2/3 of contests. 

Consensus and Normal can score decimal points if their totals are between two forecaster totals 2 to 10, and the decimal is based on the position relative to those forecasters. 

The final outcome is still up in the air although RodneyS has a fairly large surplus in the autumn total. Final results for this will be confirmed by December 1st-2nd. 

Thank you Rodger for your time and diligence. :clap:

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16 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

===<<< _______(preliminary) Annual Scoring Report (Jan - Nov 2022) __________>>>===

Total scores for each location, region ... best scores for locations in red, for regions in bold type. The current status of this table is preliminary as November scores (above) could cange significantly. This table lets you know how those estimated scores play out but ranks may change. 

So far, RodneyS has extended his lead while wxdude64 has moved into second place with DonSutherland1 close behind at third. Unfortunately so_whats_happening was unable to enter November and dropped from fourth to eighth. Consensus therefore moves up one rank to the gap between 3rd and 4th. Tom, BKViking, wxallannj and hudsonvalley21 have moved up to occupy 4th to 7th, in so doing wxallannj has also moved past hudsonvalley21. Scotty Lightning (9th and virtually tied 8th) is now ahead of RJay who fell to 10th, and your host remains in 11th. Normal has moved ahead of Rjay to occupy the gap between 9th and 10th. Stormchaser Chuck's prorated score would still leave him in 12th. so_whats_happening now has a prorated score also, and that would rank third. It should be noted that all of these ranks are subject to change at the end of the month.

 

FORECASTER ___________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east_ ORD_ATL_IAH __ cent _ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA __west __ TOTAL

 

RodneyS ________________816 _782 _668__2266__714 _900 _656__2270 _4536 __772 _888 _744__2404____6940

wxdude64 ______________ 763 _815 _793 __2371 __791 _813_ 634__2238_4609 __688 _832 _687 __2207 ____6816

DonSutherland1 ________ 852 _816 _776__2444__790 _748 _564__2102 _4546 __600 _844 _780 __2224 ____6770

 

___ Consensus ___________770 _788 _756__2314__762 _764 _584__2110 _4424__720 _824 _715 __2259 ____6683

 

 

Tom _____________________ 775 _809 _723 __2307__766 _761 _679__2206 _4513 __737 _723 _596 __2056____6569

BKViking ________________ 756 _796 _714 __2266__732 _730 _554__2016 _4282 __762 _748 _710 __2230____6512

wxallannj ________________682 _734 _694 __2110 __726 _640 _562__1928 _4038 __760 _778 _752 __2290____6328

hudsonvalley21 __________692 _760 _796 __2248__696 _722 _552__1970 _4218__ 658 _818 _612__ 2088____6306

so_whats_happening (10)_644 _702 _698__2044__693 _718_560__1971 _4015 __ 664 _768 _744 __2186 ____6201

Scotty Lightning _________730 _760 _706 __2196 __738 _710 _610__2058 _4254 __624 _784 _538__1946____6200

_____ Normal _____________760 _736 _616 __2112 __732 _742 _650 __2124 _4236 __588 _754 _566__1908____6144

RJay _____________________656 _702 _770 __2128__649 _696 _510__1855 _3983 __716 _630 _649 __1995____5978

Roger Smith _____________678 _632 _470 __1780 __582 _634 _558__1774 _3554 __820 _804 _771__2395____5949

Stormchaser Chuck (8/11)_497_509 _473 __1479 __450 _551 _355 _1356 _2835 __416 _510 _335 __ 1261____4096

__ __ prorated Stormchaser Chuck would compare at 5632 total points. 

__ __ and so_whats_happening would compare at 6821 total points.

=========================================

__ Best Forecasts __ 

* tied for high score with one other forecaster __ ^ tied for high score with three others (Mar). 

 

FORECASTER ________ DCA_NYC_BOS _east_ ORD_ATL_IAH_ cent _c/e__ DEN_PHX_SEA _west _ total

RodneyS _______________ 2**__ 1 ___ 1*____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 5 ___ 2 ___4 ___ 3___ 2*___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 1*___ 1 __ Sep,Oct

wxdude64 _____________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____ 0 ___ 1*___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___1 __ Jan

DonSutherland1 ________4*^__ 2 ___ 0 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____4 ____1 ____2 __ Feb,May

___ Consensus _________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0 ___ 0

Tom ____________________ 1^___ 2 ___ 1 ____ 2 ____1 ___ 2 ___ 2 ___ 3 ___ 1 ___ 1*___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 __ Mar

 

BKViking _______________3^___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 __ Nov

wxallannj _______________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___2*___ 1 ___ 2*___ 2 ___0

hudsonvalley21 ________ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1*___ 1*___ 0

so_whats_happening ___ 1*___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1*___ 1 __ Jul

Scotty Lightning ________ 2**__ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1*___ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0

___ Normal ______________ 3 ___ 2 ___ 1 ____ 1 ___ 2 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 2 ___ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0

RJay ____________________ 1^___ 0 ___ 3*____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 __ Apr

Roger Smith ____________ 1 ___ 3 ___ 1*____2 ___ 2*___ 0 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 6*___ 2 ___ 2*___ 6*___ 2 __Jun, Aug

Stormchaser Chuck ____ 2 ___ 1 ___ 2*____ 1 ___ 2 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 1 ____ 0

=========================

EXTREME FORECAST SCORING 

(second total in brackets adjusts for tied wins which are indicated by * in monthly logs only -- so far this has occurred twelve times, once for SEA in Feb, once for IAH in Apr, once for DEN in May and again Aug, once for BOS in June, once for SEA in June, once for DCA in July and also Aug and Sep, once for BOS in July and once for ORD in July and again Aug.) Normal could also be tied for extreme forecast wins but this is not tracked.

(in March, four shared a win for DCA shown by ^ -- this counts as 0.25 in the second bracketed total).

(wins for Normal are in addition to forecaster wins and do not replace them _ Normal is not charged with a loss _ would have done so in April for DEN)

So far, 72 of 99 forecasts qualify, 28 warmest and 44 coldest; Jan 0-5, Feb 4-4, Mar 2-2, Apr 3-6, May 4-2, June 3-4, July 4-3, Aug 4-5, Sep 1-3, Oct 3-4, Nov 0-6. 

 

FORECASTER __________ Jan _Feb _Mar _Apr _May _Jun_ Jul _Aug _ Sep _Oct _Nov __TOTAL (adj for ties)

 

Roger Smith ___________ --- _ 1- 1 _ 2-0 _5-1_ ---_ 4**0 _ 0-3 _3**0 _1-0 _ --- _ 2-0 __ 18-5 (16-5)

RodneyS _______________ --- _ 1-0 _ --- _ --- _ 2*-0_ 1*-0 _2*-0_3-2 _1*0 _ 2-0 _ 2-0 __14-2 (12.0-2)

____ Normal ____________ --- _ 1-0 _ --- _ 1-0 _ --- _ 2-0 _ _ 1-1 _ 1-0 _ 3-0_ 2-0 _ 1-0 __12-1

Stormchaser Chuck ____ 2-1 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 3-0 _2-0 _1*-0 _ --- _ --- _ 2-0 _ ---- __ 10-1 (9.5- 1)

DonSutherland1 _______ --- _ 4*-0_ 1^-0_1-0_ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 1*-0 _ --- _ --- __ 1-0 _ ---- __10-0 (8.25 - 0)

RJay ___________________ --- _ --- _ 1^-0_ 1*-0_--- _ ---- _ 3*-0 _ 1-1_ --- _ 1-0 _ ---- __ 7-1 (6.25 - 1)

Tom ____________________ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 2^-0_1-0_ 1*-0_ ---- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ ---- __ 6-0 (4.75 - 0)

wxdude64 ______________1-0 _ 3*-0_ --- _ --- _ --- _ ---- _1*-0 _--- _ --- _ --- _ ---- __ 5-0 (4.0 - 0)

Scotty Lightning _______ --- _ --- _ --- _ ---- _ --- _ ---- _ ---- _ 2**0_ 3*0 _---_ 0-2 __5-2 (3.5 - 2)

BKViking _______________ --- _ --- _ 1^-0_ --- _ --- _ ---- _ ---- _ --- __ --- _ 1-0 _ 2-0 __4-0 (3.25 - 0)

so_whats_happening __ 1-0 _ --- _ --- _ 1-0 _ --- _ ---- _ ---- _ 1*-0 _--- _ ---- _---- __3-0 (2.5 - 0)

hudsonvalley21 _________--- _ --- _ --- _ 1*-1 _ --- _ ---- _1*-0 _ 1-0 _ --- _ --- __ ---- __3-1 (2.0 - 1)

wxallannj _______________--- _ --- _ 0-1 _ ---- _ --- _ 1*-0 _ 1-0 _ 1*-1 _ --- _ --- _ ---- __3-2 (2.0 -1)

===============================

(Normal is not considered for ties and can score a loss when 0.0 is between a win and a loss, but not when 0.0 is lower than a winning low forecast)

 

As always thanks Roger!

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