The Ole Bucket Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 Most of the snow was scorched by sun angle yesterday. A few pockets still out there I guess. NWS gives us a shot at 1-2” tonight but temps later today don’t look great for accumulation IMO. If only it was here *now* since we are struggling to get to 20 at the moment! Also, just laughing at this week’s temp forecast. Not supposed to exceed the freezing mark Friday. And this seems just miserable for most folks this time of year.. Wednesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 39. West wind 7 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 1 hour ago, Baum said: AFD:FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE, SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK TO GENERALLY BE IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE (NO MATERIAL CHANGE FROM THE DAY SHIFT'S FORECAST), BUT SWATHS OF 2-4 INCH AMOUNTS APPEAR IN THE CARDS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS ONCE YOU GET MORE THAN 20-30 MILES AWAY FROM THE MILD LAKE INFLUENCE Zone Forecast:TONIGHT MOSTLY CLOUDY. SNOW LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT. TUESDAY SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND AN INCH. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT. TUESDAY NIGHT CLOUDY. SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY, MAINLY IN THE EVENING. LOWS AROUND 30. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT. Time to put distance vs Alek in snow totals 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 28 minutes ago, Cary67 said: Time to put distance vs Alek in snow totals as long as i get a 20"er in early feb it's all good 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 nice to see The Ole Bucket posting btw 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 Down to 14 last night with scattered snow showers hanging around. Have picked up 14" at my house the past few days. Lakes are beginning to freeze as deep winter takes hold here in the north. Deer Lake north of Negaunee this morning. 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 Pretty much a steady light snow around here for the next few days. Heavier accum NE of me with LES in the mix. Off to an early start with the big totals. Light winds starting SE will gradually swing to the E, then NE before the really cold, blustery W/NW winds kick in later in the week. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 4 hours ago, The Ole Bucket said: Most of the snow was scorched by sun angle yesterday. A few pockets still out there I guess. NWS gives us a shot at 1-2” tonight but temps later today don’t look great for accumulation IMO. If only it was here *now* since we are struggling to get to 20 at the moment! Also, just laughing at this week’s temp forecast. Not supposed to exceed the freezing mark Friday. And this seems just miserable for most folks this time of year.. Wednesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 39. West wind 7 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. This could be the earliest reference to sun angle on record. If your location can’t handle a late January sun angle, you’re pretty much screwed. lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 Point forecast has us down to 8 on Saturday night. Anybody want to take a bet that we'll have a colder lowest temp in the month of November than in December? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 52 minutes ago, roardog said: This could be the earliest reference to sun angle on record. If your location can’t handle a late January sun angle, you’re pretty much screwed. lol For legal purposes, that was mostly a joke. The Mid-Atlantic forum is constantly making jokes about sun angle eating up their snowcover. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 2 hours ago, weatherbo said: Down to 14 last night with scattered snow showers hanging around. Have picked up 14" at my house the past few days. Lakes are beginning to freeze as deep winter takes hold here in the north. Deer Lake north of Negaunee this morning. Beautiful picture! Lakes going to be firing later this week! Globals are showing 55" at 1:10 ratio around here, never seen anything like it. Do you guys still have a lake effect thread going like the last few years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 1 hour ago, madwx said: Point forecast has us down to 8 on Saturday night. Anybody want to take a bet that we'll have a colder lowest temp in the month of November than in December? torch is coming back for december. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 1 hour ago, hardypalmguy said: torch is coming back for december. Looks like a mild 1st half of December and a cold 2nd half 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 14, 2022 Author Share Posted November 14, 2022 For Chicago, this will be the first time since 2014 that the first measurable snow of the season comes less than 1 week after having a high of 70+ 10/27/2014: high 77 10/31/2014: 0.1" 11/10/2022: high 76 11/15/2022: tbd Fwiw, if 1" or more occurs, it would be the first time since October 1989 that the first measurable snow of 1"+ happened less than a week after having a high of 70+ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 2” here today with 3-4” reports across northern metro. Certainly caught a lot of people off guard as the number of spin outs and crashes was substantial. I guess I could put this in the thread for the 11/15-16 event but since we have another 2-4” forecasted tomorrow night I’ll save that for there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 2 hours ago, weatherbo said: Thanks! That would be an insane amount of snow at that ratio. There'd be some roof issues, I'm sure. I'm not even sure I'd be down for that. I don't think we've had a LE thread in this sub for a couple seasons. Josh in Gaylord doesn't post much anymore, and tbh, there's only a handful here that would post so I just post my obs in the monthly threads. Hey guys still around now and then been pretty busy. Hope to be on here more this winter, that also depends on how arrive our winter unfolds past few years hasn't been worth the effort. This coming weekend setup looks pretty decent for my area, WNY Belts look to get pretty slammed looking forward to the pics Buff. Really haven't bothered with an LES thread past couple years just been mainly Bo and myself and as I said LES been pretty lacking, don't think people have much interest in 1-3" events and sub 100" totals for the year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 First official freeze at Detroit yesterday. 2nd latest on record. Latest is November 15, 1946. Looks like Akron/Canton, Ohio and Wheeling, West Virginia are both experiencing their latest freezes on record. Previous records were November 12, 2016 & November 4, 1900, respectively. Wheeling will probably drop to 32 or below by midnight, and Akron/Canton by tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 8-12" of snow reported this evening NE of me up the shore. Advisory went to warning. They low balled the storm totals, but that's the lake for ya 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 Going to be one of those weeks, especially with day after day of the mercury barely budging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 8 hours ago, Brian D said: 8-12" of snow reported this evening NE of me up the shore. Advisory went to warning. They low balled the storm totals, but that's the lake for ya Good. Build that base up at Lutsen. long duration light snow event here, 2-2.5” otg but with marginally temps it’s taking heavier rates to lead to accumulation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 If there are any chasers out there. Buf NWS calling for feet of snow this week. I haven't seen them use crippling in a forecast discussion since Nov 2014. Could be an all timer ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow accumulations in this long duration event of MULTIPLE feet will be possible in the most persistent lake snows. LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... ...CRIPPLING LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORM POSSIBLE THIS PERIOD... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: If there are any chasers out there. Buf NWS calling for feet of snow this week. I haven't seen them use crippling in a forecast discussion since Nov 2014. Could be an all timer ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow accumulations in this long duration event of MULTIPLE feet will be possible in the most persistent lake snows. LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... ...CRIPPLING LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORM POSSIBLE THIS PERIOD... So jealous! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: So jealous! If there was ever an event to chase it would be this one. Could be the biggest in quite a few years and looks to hit metro buffalo which would be an easy chase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 13 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said: First official freeze at Detroit yesterday. 2nd latest on record. Latest is November 15, 1946. Looks like Akron/Canton, Ohio and Wheeling, West Virginia are both experiencing their latest freezes on record. Previous records were November 12, 2016 & November 4, 1900, respectively. Wheeling will probably drop to 32 or below by midnight, and Akron/Canton by tomorrow. It was actually tied for 4th latest on record Nov 15, 1946 Nov 15, 1915 Nov 14, 1918 Nov 13, 1916 Nov 13, 2022 The irony of this was: -The low on October 8th rounded to 33, was less than a 1/2 degree from what would have been an earlier than normal first freeze. Avg first freeze Oct 17. -the first snowflakes were earlier than normal on Oct 20 (avg Oct 30) -the first measurable snow was earlier than normal on Nov 13 (avg Nov 17) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: If there was ever an event to chase it would be this one. Could be the biggest in quite a few years and looks to hit metro buffalo which would be an easy chase. I legit thought about it but I just have too much going on the rest of this week. Also, with the bands always being narrow, how difficult is it to pinpoint where to go? lol Just for future reference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 Just now, michsnowfreak said: I legit thought about it but I just have too much going on the rest of this week. Also, with the bands always being narrow, how difficult is it to pinpoint where to go? lol Just for future reference. Its not easy to track exactly where the bands will go but we have a general idea of the most predominant wind direction which will be SW. SW winds affect Metro Buffalo and 5-10 miles north and south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 So far it's been 2-6" around the head of the lake with 2" here in town from a band last night. Only one report from up in Cook cty from this morning in Hovland. They had 12" right on the shoreline there. I'm sure there is higher totals just inland this morning, as a 13.5" report came in yesterday evening from well inland in Cook cty. A pretty good snow for here by the shore. We usually get a mix this time of year. Inland areas always do better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 2-4" possible across the GTA, away from the Lake, this evening into tomorrow. Lake Ontario temperatures are still relatively warm for this time of the year. This combined with cold upper air temps, will allow the lake effect band to sustain itself through tomorrow morning. If surface temperatures were colder, this would've been a nice 4-8" event. But we'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: I legit thought about it but I just have too much going on the rest of this week. Also, with the bands always being narrow, how difficult is it to pinpoint where to go? lol Just for future reference. Maybe this will sway your mind 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 Anyone sniffing out the Thanksgiving storm next week? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 9 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said: Anyone sniffing out the Thanksgiving storm next week? rainer we are back in the cad, brief warmup, rainer cycle again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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