Hoosier Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 The march toward winter continues. But it looks like a good warmup on the way early in the month. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 26, 2022 Share Posted October 26, 2022 It's not a bad idea to start November on the mild side, better favor for a flip towards colder the 2nd half. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 27, 2022 Author Share Posted October 27, 2022 A little far out to fully commit, but we may be setting up a weekend delight for the first weekend of November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted October 29, 2022 Share Posted October 29, 2022 On 10/27/2022 at 4:05 PM, Hoosier said: A little far out to fully commit, but we may be setting up a weekend delight for the first weekend of November. I love cryptic speak 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted October 29, 2022 Share Posted October 29, 2022 Sky is incredibly clear tonight, kinda cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 31, 2022 Author Share Posted October 31, 2022 This is a surprisingly warm look for November on the late run(s). Have to wonder if it will end up this mild. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 WAD 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 31, 2022 Author Share Posted October 31, 2022 29 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: WAD Something I'm watching is how long of a gap there will be between first freeze at RFD and ORD. Rockford had it on 10/8, so it's 23 days and counting. On average, it's more like 2 weeks between first freeze at RFD and ORD, but they have done it on the same day in some years. Perhaps more amazing is that Rockford has been AOB freezing 9 times. It seems like it would be pretty unusual for Rockford to get out to a 9-0 lead, but I haven't checked into that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 25 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Something I'm watching is how long of a gap there will be between first freeze at RFD and ORD. Rockford had it on 10/8, so it's 23 days and counting. On average, it's more like 2 weeks between first freeze at RFD and ORD, but they have done it on the same day in some years. Perhaps more amazing is that Rockford has been AOB freezing 9 times. It seems like it would be pretty unusual for Rockford to get out to a 9-0 lead, but I haven't checked into that. Sometimes stuff like that just blends in with UHI and things like that. For instance, Detroit has not had a freeze yet with their low temperature being 33ﾟ(just missing it on the 8th), but Flint has had 7 freezes. On the other hand, Detroit has had 14 days in October with the low temperature in the 30s, but the average is 10. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: WAD We have definitely entered the most active and wettest pattern we have been in since July. The next two weeks will have a parade of storm systems on the regular. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 31, 2022 Author Share Posted October 31, 2022 1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said: We have definitely entered the most active and wettest pattern we have been in since July. The next two weeks will have a parade of storm systems on the regular. The large scale pattern seems like it could be favorable for severe threat(s) in the sub, but we'll have to see if any individual system cooperates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 1, 2022 Share Posted November 1, 2022 2 hours ago, Hoosier said: The large scale pattern seems like it could be favorable for severe threat(s) in the sub, but we'll have to see if any individual system cooperates. 2nd season gave me my closest call with an EF-3 (a little too close for comfort tbh). Can't help but like seeing shades of an 07-08 & 10-11 combo. Anyone remember GHD-1? Just need an Octo-bomb-esque autumn bruiser to set the pre-cursor tone for the Sub. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 1, 2022 Author Share Posted November 1, 2022 1 hour ago, RogueWaves said: 2nd season gave me my closest call with an EF-3 (a little too close for comfort tbh). What day was that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 1, 2022 Author Share Posted November 1, 2022 LOT should probably expand the fog advisory. It is super foggy out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted November 1, 2022 Share Posted November 1, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 1, 2022 Share Posted November 1, 2022 Crushed it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted November 1, 2022 Share Posted November 1, 2022 I'm good with a nice November. After Thanksgiving bring on winter ala December 2000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 1, 2022 Share Posted November 1, 2022 1 hour ago, Baum said: I'm good with a nice November. After Thanksgiving bring on winter ala December 2000. The 1st 10 days warmth in November is probably a big reason for the higher probabilities of a mild November to begin with, but yes, if you look at trends in recent years we've had plenty of cold November that have led to mild Decembers. So let's switch it up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 1, 2022 Author Share Posted November 1, 2022 GFS really goes to town with the system this weekend. Not the deepest system we've ever seen, but it strengthens at an explosive rate. Would have a rapidly developing high wind threat on Saturday should it pan out, but a slower/delayed deepening than shown would mitigate that potential rather significantly. So, wait and see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowtie` Posted November 1, 2022 Share Posted November 1, 2022 Leaves are more on the ground than in the trees here now. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 1, 2022 Share Posted November 1, 2022 Here are some pics from about a week ago. I haven't seen the hardwoods change color for the last 16 years. The western cities had a relative few maples in town, but overall there were non-hardwoods. There were ash trees in the west, which apparently aren't here due to the emerald ash borer. The cottonwoods out west were bright yellow if you didn't get a nasty frost, but also could become brown quickly. The oranges were kind of absent out west. The aspens planted in town were a nice yellow. It was occasionally nice to see the aspens in the natural mountain environment, but the thing is, I missed the maple trees! 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted November 1, 2022 Share Posted November 1, 2022 1 hour ago, Chinook said: Here are some pics from about a week ago. I haven't seen the hardwoods change color for the last 16 years. The western cities had a relative few maples in town, but overall there were non-hardwoods. There were ash trees in the west, which apparently aren't here due to the emerald ash borer. The cottonwoods out west were bright yellow if you didn't get a nasty frost, but also could become brown quickly. The oranges were kind of absent out west. The aspens planted in town were a nice yellow. It was occasionally nice to see the aspens in the natural mountain environment, but the thing is, I missed the maple trees! Amen to that man! Maple trees put on a hell of a show in the Fall. Is this taken at Oak Openings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 22 hours ago, Hoosier said: What day was that? a long time ago now: October 24th 2001 Tornado Outbreak (weather.gov) 17 years later, the memory of the 2001 Michiana tornadoes stay with us (wndu.com) 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 2, 2022 Author Share Posted November 2, 2022 1 hour ago, RogueWaves said: a long time ago now: October 24th 2001 Tornado Outbreak (weather.gov) 17 years later, the memory of the 2001 Michiana tornadoes stay with us (wndu.com) I vividly remember that day. SPC issued a high risk area for it. Also remember it got pretty chilly with a bit of snow afterward. I recall seeing pictures of snow on top of the debris. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 4 hours ago, nwohweather said: Amen to that man! Maple trees put on a hell of a show in the Fall. Is this taken at Oak Openings? Yes. It's kind of funny to see the perhaps specifically-planted white pine in there. The forest shouldn't have pine. It was my favorite outdoor place before the Rocky Mountains. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 Models continue to be bullish about heavy rain through Iowa Friday-Saturday as a front stalls out over the area and a low rides up the front. A band of 2-4" is possible somewhere around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 Endless torch. Ride it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 9 hours ago, Chinook said: Yes. It's kind of funny to see the perhaps specifically-planted white pine in there. The forest shouldn't have pine. It was my favorite outdoor place before the Rocky Mountains. Yeah they planted those awhile back to help with soil erosion and actually as a revenue generating stream for the park itself when they get harvested. I agree with you that Oak Openings is a gem, and the prickly pear cactus found around the park is so damn cool. The place I got is about 10 mins east of there. 17 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said: Endless torch. Ride it. We're still hitting 80 every day here still so I definitely feel that. Not a bad way to enter November while the Western US gets much needed snow & rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 Very happy with this opening of Nov, yesterday though was a let down for the first half. I could get to 20C if everything lines up either today or sometime this week . Most insane is the forecast low on Sat of 14C / 57F (Nov 5)!!! Made it to 19C on my station, should also add 23 years ago today I had nearly two feet of snow on the ground but this go around I'm walking around in shorts and soaking up the full sun, green fields remain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 1 hour ago, nwohweather said: Yeah they planted those awhile back to help with soil erosion and actually as a revenue generating stream for the park itself when they get harvested. I agree with you that Oak Openings is a gem, and the prickly pear cactus found around the park is so damn cool. The place I got is about 10 mins east of there. We're still hitting 80 every day here still so I definitely feel that. Not a bad way to enter November while the Western US gets much needed snow & rain I found one prickly pear cactus on the Oak Openings soil years ago, not sure if it was early 2000s or something. Then I moved to a place that had prickly pear cactus, (and only that type.) The Rocky Mountain foothills at ~5100 ft had prickly pear cactus. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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