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18z 12/24 model disco


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no...not necessarily...the 6 hour forecast from the 12z GFS is used as the first guess in the data assimilation system, so it's possible but hopefully new observations between 12z and 18z would correct for them...the model is re-initialized for the 18z GFS run....now the problem I have with HPC's logic is that they provided no real information about the cause/source of the intialization errors...if it was bad data they would had come straight out and said it

the GFS analysis not agreeing with the Euro analysis...means one of them is wrong, but you can't use the Euro as the validation to say the GFS has initialization errors

do initialization errors at 12z propagate to 18z runs whistle.gif

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well sometimes it has then loses before it comes back...

0z is huge ;) lol

Talk about a wild day for the models. Definitely going to need to see 0z tonight (I had pretty much given up).

I am really enjoying the met posts throughout. Great insight into what is going through their more experienced minds. Awesome work mets!

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48!!

post-506-0-04927900-1293227713.gif

post-506-0-95516900-1293227723.jpg

Is that last panel a new field that NCEP is putting out for miraculous snowstorms? Congrats, Jimmy Stewart!:lol:

Seriously though...holy cow. I haven't followed too closely today with other things going on. Despite something I read that the 12Z GFS might have been somewhat corrupted (bad data??), this is a huge shift. Verbatim, DC would get in on over half a foot of snow if this is real. That 500 mb...as I believe someone else said from what I glanced at earlier in this thread...screams East Coast snowstorm. I sure hope this is a real trend, change, or whatever.

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What in the hell does it do with the low track after 54 hours? It just sits there and pounds NYC/NJ and then decides to just go 090 and straight into the Atlantic? I gotta say for now I believe HPC is very likely onto something here.

thats basically what the euro blizzard solutions were doin

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The NOGAPs shifted way west at 18z. It has come west aside of a pause at 12z for a day. The RGEM at 18z looks good. I have a very, very hard time believing all models are suffering from this same failure. The EC - my feelings on it are the same as the pro forecaster that posted the other day. Someone will find a way to say it was the best no matter what happens but it is not perfect all the time. If the NOGAPS is calling for a major east coast low...the most surpressed model, time to at least watch the 0z closely.

I think the errors may be overstated unless I'm misunderstanding how they propogate to other countries models/Navy etc.

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no...not necessarily...the 6 hour forecast from the 12z GFS is used as the first guess in the data assimilation system, so it's possible but hopefully new observations between 12z and 18z would correct for them...the model is re-initialized for the 18z GFS run....now the problem I have with HPC's logic is that they provided no real information about the cause/source of the intialization errors...if it was bad data they would had come straight out and said it

the GFS analysis not agreeing with the Euro analysis...means one of them is wrong, but you can't use the Euro as the validation to say the GFS has initialization errors

Well said. I fully endorse this post. I really want to know what they are seeing. I'm shocked they are so willing to just toss runs with these sort of short lead times.....especially with some ensemble support.

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