Fozz Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 If this isn't some whacked up run like 12z, I think watches need to be issued immediately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 who knows maybe the euro was right all along lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 no...not necessarily...the 6 hour forecast from the 12z GFS is used as the first guess in the data assimilation system, so it's possible but hopefully new observations between 12z and 18z would correct for them...the model is re-initialized for the 18z GFS run....now the problem I have with HPC's logic is that they provided no real information about the cause/source of the intialization errors...if it was bad data they would had come straight out and said it the GFS analysis not agreeing with the Euro analysis...means one of them is wrong, but you can't use the Euro as the validation to say the GFS has initialization errors do initialization errors at 12z propagate to 18z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beez Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 its the euro solution all over again maybe the euro had it right all along and just lost it? this is one nerve racking storm. Im up in coastal nj for the holidays. havent seen hardly any snow in 4 years as I live now in the southeast. would love to get nailed here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 do initialization errors at 12z propagate to 18z runs Absolutely. But one would think with the data that is used on the 18z from passive methods there should have been some smoothing. Instead we have more intense solutions from every single model. its the euro solution all over again The nogaps is way west at 18z, major hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huntingtonwx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 someone just posted on tristate that hpc threw out this one. they read it on the accu site? does anyone confirmation of this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 dc prob on borderline of .5-.75, north of that... MECS-HECS Well damn. Thanks guys. Gonna need 0z to confirm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 who knows maybe the euro was right all along lol well sometimes it has then loses before it comes back... 0z is huge lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 maybe its the euro that is sick not the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 If this isn't some whacked up run like 12z, I think watches need to be issued immediately. We would need 00z to continue this to do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Yep, but it is still very prudent to be conservative with this very challenging forecast. That was only through 60. Check the through 78 above I posted. You see a good amount more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Yes... This trend also gives me a reason to skip midnight mass to watch the Oz's roll in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 This will be an utter nightmare to forecast to the public. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 im watching ryan on tv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 well sometimes it has then loses before it comes back... 0z is huge lol Talk about a wild day for the models. Definitely going to need to see 0z tonight (I had pretty much given up). I am really enjoying the met posts throughout. Great insight into what is going through their more experienced minds. Awesome work mets! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Estimated storm total snowfall via the TwisterData.com algorithm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 i wouldn't want to touch a public forecast for this event with a fifty foot pole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Yep, but it is still very prudent to be conservative with this very challenging forecast. But watchful too. AS you said, GOM development tmrw will be key. If this low gets going in the GOM, it is all over. They have to NOWcast, but be aware of the potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 im watching ryan on tv Are you in CT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Yes... This trend also gives me a reason to skip midnight mass to watch the Oz's roll in. bring your vodka or spirit of choice tonight for the conclusion of this soap opera of model mayhem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Yes... This trend also gives me a reason to skip midnight mass to watch the Oz's roll in. Oh no you don't. We need all the prayers and hail mary's we can get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 We would need 00z to continue this to do that. The event as modeled starts in 48 hours, and people need to be especially aware of this possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 What in the hell does it do with the low track after 54 hours? It just sits there and pounds NYC/NJ and then decides to just go 090 and straight into the Atlantic? I gotta say for now I believe HPC is very likely onto something here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 The event as modeled starts in 48 hours, and people need to be especially aware of this possibility. I know... but if you issue them now and the 00z suite says swing and miss, the NWS and such look silly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 48!! Is that last panel a new field that NCEP is putting out for miraculous snowstorms? Congrats, Jimmy Stewart! Seriously though...holy cow. I haven't followed too closely today with other things going on. Despite something I read that the 12Z GFS might have been somewhat corrupted (bad data??), this is a huge shift. Verbatim, DC would get in on over half a foot of snow if this is real. That 500 mb...as I believe someone else said from what I glanced at earlier in this thread...screams East Coast snowstorm. I sure hope this is a real trend, change, or whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 its the euro solution all over again I'm just curious if anyone has an explanation why the Euro lost this solution and has failed to come back to it yet, while the GFS/Nam have picked it back up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 What in the hell does it do with the low track after 54 hours? It just sits there and pounds NYC/NJ and then decides to just go 090 and straight into the Atlantic? I gotta say for now I believe HPC is very likely onto something here. thats basically what the euro blizzard solutions were doin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 The NOGAPs shifted way west at 18z. It has come west aside of a pause at 12z for a day. The RGEM at 18z looks good. I have a very, very hard time believing all models are suffering from this same failure. The EC - my feelings on it are the same as the pro forecaster that posted the other day. Someone will find a way to say it was the best no matter what happens but it is not perfect all the time. If the NOGAPS is calling for a major east coast low...the most surpressed model, time to at least watch the 0z closely. I think the errors may be overstated unless I'm misunderstanding how they propogate to other countries models/Navy etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I know... but if you issue them now and the 00z suite says swing and miss, the NWS and such look silly Watches mean there is the potential, and if this run is legit, then there is the potential for significant snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 no...not necessarily...the 6 hour forecast from the 12z GFS is used as the first guess in the data assimilation system, so it's possible but hopefully new observations between 12z and 18z would correct for them...the model is re-initialized for the 18z GFS run....now the problem I have with HPC's logic is that they provided no real information about the cause/source of the intialization errors...if it was bad data they would had come straight out and said it the GFS analysis not agreeing with the Euro analysis...means one of them is wrong, but you can't use the Euro as the validation to say the GFS has initialization errors Well said. I fully endorse this post. I really want to know what they are seeing. I'm shocked they are so willing to just toss runs with these sort of short lead times.....especially with some ensemble support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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