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18z 12/24 model disco

needbiggerboat

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted

42hrs DC going to get hit on this run

In the words of a Football anouncer You 've got to be kidding me.

yep the surface adjusted at hour 48, I also would argue for the IAD area, before Ji goes nuts, the h5 and h7 track to me would indicate this is not done trending west at the surface...I think the back edge of heavy precip would get a little further west into VA. Before anyone bashes me for IMBY I am going to be in Philadelphia Sunday and Monday and then NYC after that. (I have Eagles tickets for Sunday night) so this is just my analysis not wish casting.

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CTWeatherFreak

CTWeatherFreak

Posted
Posted

from the NYC thread:

Euro ensemble spag plots reveal that the OP euro was an eastern outliner to its ensembles.

Many, if not a majority of the euro ensembles have a GFS like track, hugging the coast.

First, it was reported that the 12z euro ensembles were east. Then we hear that theyre west of the op.. Does anybody have the definitive info on this?

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DJ Amenzo

DJ Amenzo

Posted
Posted

18z GFS shows historic, mind-blowing blizzard for i-95 Corridor, just as every run of the GFS has since 00z GFS, the SREF trends, and NAM. All these models and several others have been showing for over a day a historic event, ppl just didn't realize it because the sfc depictions haven't caught up to the ULs. Happens all the time.

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dtk

dtk

Posted
Posted

so with the error from the 12z run will have the same problem as the 18z run isnt ran off of new data?

Please go find the posts by Chris or myself. What hpc is calling an initialization problem could be just a matter of their opinion. I haven't looked closely as I'm traveling across Wisconsin and doing this mobile.....but I am really curious to know what they were seeing and keying in on.

If (if!!!!!!) there was a legitimately issue, it could potentially exist for more than a single cycle depending on observational coverage to provide corrections.

I wish I had the time and capability to dig into this more right now.....Damn holiday obligations.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

In the car. On iPhone. Somebody. Cliff notes. Please

the cliff note version is in 20 years of doing this I think I can spot init errors pretty well, especially flagrant ones. The positions are pretty good, they continue to gain support from the water vapor/ruc analysis as the day goes along. It may be that NCEP is right and there is an issue. I'd tend to think it has as much to do with the math but who knows if there is a significant problem at all. The 0z UA will tell all, but I don't see that there are significant errors at this stage and even if there were we should have expected to see a slight trend away from the intense solutions of 12z.

The 0z runs will square it away for sure especially up here but it's fascinating to me. Usually init errors have resulted in significant positional errors. If this is a true error it is in strength only and in the end that may be enough to mess all of the NCEP models up, but it would be a first that I've seen and a totally new way to ruin us and to play out later as positional errors. The RUC would seem to point to the trailing ND s/w as slower than the 18z forecasts.

Happy holidays randy!

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