psuhoffman Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 42hrs DC going to get hit on this run In the words of a Football anouncer You 've got to be kidding me. yep the surface adjusted at hour 48, I also would argue for the IAD area, before Ji goes nuts, the h5 and h7 track to me would indicate this is not done trending west at the surface...I think the back edge of heavy precip would get a little further west into VA. Before anyone bashes me for IMBY I am going to be in Philadelphia Sunday and Monday and then NYC after that. (I have Eagles tickets for Sunday night) so this is just my analysis not wish casting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 hr 60 sub 976 100 miles east of acy...homeland security on high alert...mass snowfall rates dc to nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 from the NYC thread: Euro ensemble spag plots reveal that the OP euro was an eastern outliner to its ensembles. Many, if not a majority of the euro ensembles have a GFS like track, hugging the coast. First, it was reported that the 12z euro ensembles were east. Then we hear that theyre west of the op.. Does anybody have the definitive info on this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 NYC clocked hard at h60. Sub 980hPa then. 0.75"+ over NE NJ/NYC/LI in 6 hours... Wow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 This is amazing. The 18z GFS has some really good upper air interaction over the GOMEX which translates to a noteworthy MA/NE storm. I'm intrigued to see if 00z GFS holds serve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlsnowman24 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Hour 60 is perfectly captured at all levels off of Jersey...speechless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Everybody read! Ok done spamming. GOM needs to be watched. 18Z GFS/12Z GFS/18Z NAM/0Z GFS not a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 i can't imagine HPC or any NWS office wants to believe the GFS as this point....very little time until the event....biggest travel day of the year....i'd be trying to find initialization errors tooooo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 gfs is almost the euro blizzard now.. insanity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 read this analysis...even if you don't fully understand it. Everybody read! Ok done spamming. GOM needs to be watched. 18Z GFS/12Z GFS/18Z NAM/0Z GFS not a joke. http://www.americanw...post__p__171963 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Based on 12z and 18z model trends, this solution is starting to look a lot more possible, if not probable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 In the car. On iPhone. Somebody. Cliff notes. Please 18z GFS. West. Boom. .5 QPF in DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 In the car. On iPhone. Somebody. Cliff notes. Please dc prob on borderline of .5-.75, north of that... MECS-HECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 In the car. On iPhone. Somebody. Cliff notes. Please 18Z NAM and GFS both now showing big I-95 storm. Everyone is hurt and confused if the 12Z "initialization errors "are impacting this. baroclinic instability believes they are legit and deal with interaction with the GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I really can't remember anything quite like this in recent years. Today has just been bizarre. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJ Amenzo Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 18z GFS shows historic, mind-blowing blizzard for i-95 Corridor, just as every run of the GFS has since 00z GFS, the SREF trends, and NAM. All these models and several others have been showing for over a day a historic event, ppl just didn't realize it because the sfc depictions haven't caught up to the ULs. Happens all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I really can't remember anything quite like this in recent years. Today has just been bizarre. Strongly agree... but we all need to take a deep breath. 18z runs threw us a large bone... but I would like to see 00z runs continue with this. 21z SREFs should now be VERY interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 so with the error from the 12z run will have the same problem as the 18z run isnt ran off of new data? Please go find the posts by Chris or myself. What hpc is calling an initialization problem could be just a matter of their opinion. I haven't looked closely as I'm traveling across Wisconsin and doing this mobile.....but I am really curious to know what they were seeing and keying in on. If (if!!!!!!) there was a legitimately issue, it could potentially exist for more than a single cycle depending on observational coverage to provide corrections. I wish I had the time and capability to dig into this more right now.....Damn holiday obligations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 18z GFS. West. Boom. .5 QPF in DCA. more like .75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 In the car. On iPhone. Somebody. Cliff notes. Please the cliff note version is in 20 years of doing this I think I can spot init errors pretty well, especially flagrant ones. The positions are pretty good, they continue to gain support from the water vapor/ruc analysis as the day goes along. It may be that NCEP is right and there is an issue. I'd tend to think it has as much to do with the math but who knows if there is a significant problem at all. The 0z UA will tell all, but I don't see that there are significant errors at this stage and even if there were we should have expected to see a slight trend away from the intense solutions of 12z. The 0z runs will square it away for sure especially up here but it's fascinating to me. Usually init errors have resulted in significant positional errors. If this is a true error it is in strength only and in the end that may be enough to mess all of the NCEP models up, but it would be a first that I've seen and a totally new way to ruin us and to play out later as positional errors. The RUC would seem to point to the trailing ND s/w as slower than the 18z forecasts. Happy holidays randy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 do initialization errors at 12z propagate to 18z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 its the euro solution all over again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Woah there senor GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Looks like 18-24" at BOS between 27/12z and 28/00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 That streak over SW ND looks real to me. FWIW http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 anyone need a shovel, salt spread, snow plow, snow blower or a new sleigh for your post Christmas delight? 18z GFS shows a good 4-6" for NYC and vicinity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 doesnt 66hr look sick at 500mb? basically stalls between 60 and 66hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 anyone need a shovel, salt spread, snow plow, snow blower or a new sleigh for your post Christmas delight? 18z GFS shows a good 4-6" for NYC and vicinity. That was only through 60. Check the through 78 above I posted. You see a good amount more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Dave, you took the words out of my mouth there. Unbelievable.. its the euro solution all over again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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