weatherweather Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 from the NYC thread: Euro ensemble spag plots reveal that the OP euro was an eastern outliner to its ensembles. Many, if not a majority of the euro ensembles have a GFS like track, hugging the coast. Im not sure if theyre hugging the coast, but definintely west of OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 like wes said whats screwing the dc area is that lead shortwave that keeps the flow from really backing early on. We need the trough to tilt neg about 3 hours sooner and DC could have a shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I thought it wasn't even possible, but this run looks slightly farther WEST than the 12z GFS at 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 42hrs DC going to get hit on this run In the words of a Football anouncer You 've got to be kidding me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlsnowman24 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 18z might be better than 12z....way west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Strong easterly fetch at 850 mb over Va Beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 36-42hr looks good as H5 low closes off, a bit more SW. good stuff. IAD still has chance with THIS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 You cant tell me this doesnt scream east coast snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siesta Key Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 18z gfs 42 hrs WAAY WEST very fierce and bombing Oh boy, here we go gents Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 once again they cant deny the trend all models have been trending since 12z yday the storm is creating its own enviroment like a hurricane ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 also notice on 42hr the 50/50L further NE....another positive feature for more west track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted December 24, 2010 Author Share Posted December 24, 2010 48!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Just a beautiful model run for NYC snow lovers. But remember in school we were warned not to just pin our hopes on the model of the day. Anyway, good sign in my book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 ho ho ho I don't care what the surface shows if that h5 is accurate DC, Baltimore, and Philly are getting a major snow. Also the H7 low is developing over western NC at the same time... surface may need time to catch up but if that upper prog is correct this comes way west of what the surface is indicating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 @ 42 hours 0C line at H85 is oriented NE to SW over Hatteras... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 48 hours just freaking wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 everyone is in game along I95 with this track... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Wow, eastern SC gets crushed between H+36 and H+42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Jesus... hr 54 sub 980 captured about 90 miles east of lewes del...mod to hvy precip dc to nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rygar Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 It may be heartbreaking more times that not, but afternoon's like this are why there are so many winter weather lovers out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 48!! IF--IF that is right, our storm doesn't just have a pulse, it got off the table and is now at mile 16 of the Boston Marathon. I don't know what to say. Is this a (day after) Christmas miracle in the making? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Delmarva getting slammed at 54h, with 0.75-1" falling in 6 hours. Sub 984hPa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 You gotta have an entrance to the 300 mb jet overhead; now we got it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 54hr is BOOM. PHIL should get in on action. sfc low more SW than 12z...earlier phase. HOWEVER doesnt 18z GFS tend to over-wrap systems? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 0.50 QPF to RIC by hr 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Wow, just wow. Can't wait till more discussions begin to realize the GOM must be considered and the potential shouldn't be tossed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 so with the error from the 12z run will have the same problem as the 18z run isnt ran off of new data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 hr 57 sub 980 captured bout 100 miles east of mouth of del bay dc to nyc clocked, raped, murdered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 probably my bias talking, but can 2 runs in a row from the gfs really be discounted 48 hrs from an event??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 48!! The NE lobe of the closed H5 low over New england is missing this run. It's going to the precip conveyor is going to shoot back NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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