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18z 12/24 model disco


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Thanks, I deleted the post as I do not want to appear contentious. I enjoy yours and many Mets posts, just a certain one galls me...I hope the MA gets in on the action.

I'll be watching the models and the radar but think down here it's still a long shot as the negative tilt and phasing looks a tad too late. Still, I'd be happy with a couple of inches which the sref guidance still suggests is possible.

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They say problems, but do not go into detail about what the problems are.

IMO and this is just from what I'm seeing off of water vapor and spc mesoscale analysis, is that the shortwaves and there are 3 of them are behaving in a way that would allow for a strong phase.

The Southern stream is much stronger than modeled already with a closed 5640dm height line in Texas. All other levels are also stronger. The leading Northern shortwave is speeding up and moving easterly making

more room for the second northern shortwave to dive southward and possibly phase with our southern shortwave. Honestly HPC might just being doing this just because they cannot believe how far west the these two particular models have come west. If the west trend continues with these two models at 0z, than how in the hell will HPC explain that. They will not be able to do it for a 3rd straight time.

They are still right to be cautious, the majority of models are still on their side.

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I'll be watching the models and the radar but think down here it's still a long shot as the negative tilt and phasing looks a tad too late. Still, I'd be happy with a couple of inches which the sref guidance still suggests is possible.

Yeah interior still out of the game. Coastal though not, as well as delmarva. NE could be a big hit. Do you agree with the random tossing out of the guidance? Even then the 0Z GFS shows the potential, and I don't find the 12Z GFS or 18Z NAM a fluke owing to initialization errors but the potential of rapid development and positive feedback. Do you think they should just be canned completely? I respect your experience in the field and wonder what you think.

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They are still right to be cautious, the majority of models are still on their side.

They can be cautious, its their right too, but this is a nowcasting situation, and they have eyes and they are obviously smart enough that what is on the U.S. playing field doesn't match the models. But this is a positive mis-match, which should lead to a phase.

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Because the NAM/GFS had 'numerous' initialization errors with the upstream system.

http://www.hpc.ncep....ons/pmdhmd.html

Yeah, after what happened a few days earlier-- theyre going to be leery of any solution like that. They did say the forecast was still "low confidence" so all solutions should still be on the table-- especially with that convection blowing up like that.

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My question more than anything is how are they so sure the same issue doesn't occur for the 00Z runs tonight?

Totally agreed. If 0Z continues with this, it can't be tossed. The GOM is showing a big influence here, and the feedback effect can be massive. 18Z here is about to explode.

storm looks stronger on this model than the 12z, those initialization errors must be mounting lol.

I hope they don't discount the potential for massive feedback early if the GOM gets going.

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Totally agreed. If 0Z continues with this, it can't be tossed. The GOM is showing a big influence here, and the feedback effect can be massive. 18Z here is about to explode.

I hope they don't discount the potential for massive feedback early if the GOM gets going.

from the NYC thread:

Euro ensemble spag plots reveal that the OP euro was an eastern outliner to its ensembles.

Many, if not a majority of the euro ensembles have a GFS like track, hugging the coast.

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