usedtobe Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Thanks, I deleted the post as I do not want to appear contentious. I enjoy yours and many Mets posts, just a certain one galls me...I hope the MA gets in on the action. I'll be watching the models and the radar but think down here it's still a long shot as the negative tilt and phasing looks a tad too late. Still, I'd be happy with a couple of inches which the sref guidance still suggests is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 They say problems, but do not go into detail about what the problems are. IMO and this is just from what I'm seeing off of water vapor and spc mesoscale analysis, is that the shortwaves and there are 3 of them are behaving in a way that would allow for a strong phase. The Southern stream is much stronger than modeled already with a closed 5640dm height line in Texas. All other levels are also stronger. The leading Northern shortwave is speeding up and moving easterly making more room for the second northern shortwave to dive southward and possibly phase with our southern shortwave. Honestly HPC might just being doing this just because they cannot believe how far west the these two particular models have come west. If the west trend continues with these two models at 0z, than how in the hell will HPC explain that. They will not be able to do it for a 3rd straight time. They are still right to be cautious, the majority of models are still on their side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I'll be watching the models and the radar but think down here it's still a long shot as the negative tilt and phasing looks a tad too late. Still, I'd be happy with a couple of inches which the sref guidance still suggests is possible. Yeah interior still out of the game. Coastal though not, as well as delmarva. NE could be a big hit. Do you agree with the random tossing out of the guidance? Even then the 0Z GFS shows the potential, and I don't find the 12Z GFS or 18Z NAM a fluke owing to initialization errors but the potential of rapid development and positive feedback. Do you think they should just be canned completely? I respect your experience in the field and wonder what you think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 As of 24h, looks like higher heights along the East Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 They are still right to be cautious, the majority of models are still on their side. They can be cautious, its their right too, but this is a nowcasting situation, and they have eyes and they are obviously smart enough that what is on the U.S. playing field doesn't match the models. But this is a positive mis-match, which should lead to a phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Delaware Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 18z looks stronger to me at 24hrs, about the same position to my knowledge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 stronger heights on the coast good or bad for a storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 24hr - ridge is sharper out west thus the tilt is ever so slightly better than 12z. thats comparing 18z, which is whatever, to 12z, which was bugged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Because the NAM/GFS had 'numerous' initialization errors with the upstream system. http://www.hpc.ncep....ons/pmdhmd.html Yeah, after what happened a few days earlier-- theyre going to be leery of any solution like that. They did say the forecast was still "low confidence" so all solutions should still be on the table-- especially with that convection blowing up like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 18Z GFS going to bomb it out. I can tell already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 stronger heights on the coast good or bad for a storm? I believe that would be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 stronger heights on the coast good or bad for a storm? That is good for east coast snow lovers. Higher heights force the storm closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 18Z GFS going to bomb it out. I can tell already. Yes it certainly looks that way. That S/W is being undermodeled AFAIK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Look at the development in the Gulf. This run is going to be an interesting to watch. Potential big hook and deep bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowlover Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I believe that would be good. good if you want west...this run looks as strong as 12Z thru 24hrs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 18Z GFS places the 500 mb offshore over the GOM. Digging, increasingly energetic trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 i think it phases at 30hr, trough goes negative....looking at 500mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Boom at 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Look at the development in the Gulf. This run is going to be an interesting to watch. Potential big hook and deep bomb. storm looks stronger on this model than the 12z, those initialization errors must be mounting lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowlover Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 thru 30hrs, phasing starting, going to bomb...may even go west of 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 to me the rh field looks worse at 30, but who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I feel a HPC boot coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Serious question...is this run likely to be tossed for essentially the same reason (a generation later) as the 12z? Its looking like a similar solution is brewing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 My question more than anything is how are they so sure the same issue doesn't occur for the 00Z runs tonight? Totally agreed. If 0Z continues with this, it can't be tossed. The GOM is showing a big influence here, and the feedback effect can be massive. 18Z here is about to explode. storm looks stronger on this model than the 12z, those initialization errors must be mounting lol. I hope they don't discount the potential for massive feedback early if the GOM gets going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Serious question...is this run likely to be tossed for essentially the same reason (a generation later) as the 12z? Its looking like a similar solution is brewing. thats what im wondering Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbsoluteVorticity Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Looking better at 500mb, this run might just do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Don't look now folks, but our storm might just have a pulse... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Totally agreed. If 0Z continues with this, it can't be tossed. The GOM is showing a big influence here, and the feedback effect can be massive. 18Z here is about to explode. I hope they don't discount the potential for massive feedback early if the GOM gets going. from the NYC thread: Euro ensemble spag plots reveal that the OP euro was an eastern outliner to its ensembles. Many, if not a majority of the euro ensembles have a GFS like track, hugging the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 18z gfs 42 hrs WAAY WEST very fierce and bombing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted December 24, 2010 Author Share Posted December 24, 2010 ho ho ho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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