18z 12/24 model disco

[needbiggerboat]

nam

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

The 18z NAM is already trending a good bit further SW with the trough vs 12z.. The western ridge is stronger, too. Models are really trying to bring this thing back.

[Dr No]

The NAM is also punching the third vortmax down into western MN this run, through 18. Take a look at 300MB as well- due N/S jet.

This is going to be a good east coast solution.

[yoda]

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SREF21PRSNE_15z/srefloop.html

Some good weenie solutions in there for all...

[mitchnick]

The NAM is also punching the third vortmax down into western MN this run, through 18. Take a look at 300MB as well- due N/S jet.

This is going to be a good east coast solution.

SREF's are west, considerably imho putting BWI between .25 and .5"

[Midlo Snow Maker]

amazing

[Amped]

Energy is Digging a good deal west of 12z, its gonna show something crazy this run

[Midlo Snow Maker]

nam looks promising

[mitchnick]

Midlo, 72 hr panel is further west, looks like its slowing it down as old euro

[goldstar]

SREF seems to show that moisture in the northwest arriving a little later, maybe that makes a difference in the placement of the ridge...?

[Midlo Snow Maker]

[mitchnick]

at 36 hrs, its digging to the Gulf coast

that should tap into some moisture

[mitchnick]

noticeably great improvements in 36 vs. 42 hr NAM at 12z at 500mb

[Dr No]

There she blows!

[joey]

Looks eerily similar to 12z GFS.

[weatherweather]

amazing run to run inconsistency, its digging over 100 miles further south at 42

[mitchnick]

there is the start of a pivot to the precip shield at 36, end of the run

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/index_ref_l_loop.shtml

[Reale WX]

This run will be slightly better than 12z which was much better than anything before.

Correct me if Im wrong.. is the 18z NAM data run off of 12z gfs data (which was much further west and may have had data problems). This could obviously be a problem

[needbiggerboat]

42

[mitchnick]

This run will be slightly better than 12z which was much better than anything before.

Correct me if Im wrong.. is the 18z NAM data run off of 12z gfs data (which was much further west and may have had data problems). This could obviously be a problem

no its not

[mitchnick]

42

its maddening how the precip just won't make it into DCA/BWI

[SBUWX23]

no its not

It uses previous data from the GFS for its lateral boundary conditions.

[Amped]

42

Can't go negative until it reaches the londitude of The VT NY border because of the closed 500mb low extending NE into that area. It's going to do a crazy hook into SNE. You can see a second low over the SC coastal plane.

[Reale WX]

48 mmm she looks yummy. vort max look beautiful and the ridge over us!?

[mitchnick]

It uses previous data from the GFS for its lateral boundary conditions.

do 0Z and 12Z runs of NAM also use it?

[SBUWX23]

T

do 0Z and 12Z runs of NAM also use it?

They all should otherwise it has no conditions along the boundaries since this models domain is smaller than the GFS.

[Midlo Snow Maker]

850 low

[Reale WX]

It uses previous data from the GFS for its lateral boundary conditions.

Any idea if that is why this run is further west and more like the 12z gfs.. seems plauable but I dont know a whole lot about models and their parameterizations

[needbiggerboat]

996 @ 48 offshore ese of hse

[mitchnick]

850 Low trying to reform further south down the coast at 42 hrs