LongRanger Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 this morning TWC repeatedly insisted the approaching line on radar was entirely, completely, nothing but virga well, I guess that means in central MD we're getting flurries of virga reaching the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Moderate snow, visibility lowering, white stuff on all surfaces now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 I report 5 very small pathetic snowflakes on Hopkins campus in Baltimore. I'll keep you posted when I see #6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skywalker03 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Got a few flakes here around Union Station. Nice to see! Also heard from a friend that Silver Spring had enough to whiten a few places on the sidewalks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjon Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Possible blizzard watches coming for the mountains! .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL FIRST IMPACT THE REGION WITH RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...AND TEMPERATURES MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR A WINTRY MIXTURE FOR THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS SUCH AS THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AND EASTERN RANDOLPH COUNTY. AFTER THE RAIN...AN ARCTIC OUTBREAK WILL OCCUR LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GUSTY WINDS AND ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WIND CHILLS WILL DROP WELL BELOW ZERO BY MONDAY. WINTER STORM OR BLIZZARD WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Possible blizzard watches coming for the mountains! DROP WELL BELOW ZERO BY MONDAY. WINTER STORM OR BLIZZARD WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... I want some of that! Send it this way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Corrie Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Looks like the snow was enough to cause accidents in Loudoun http://www.loudounti...hes_in_loudoun/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Half inch. Nice lil surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Looks like the snow was enough to cause accidents in Loudoun http://www.loudounti...hes_in_loudoun/ accidents in Frederick and upper Montgomery as well. Certainly not an isolated thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 JB's white Christmas forecast verifies if the 324hr GFS occurs http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/fpc.shtml A more realistic feature of the 12z GFS is it maintains the rockin' Greenland block until at least the model truncates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 anyone know where the 12Z Euro discussion is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 anyone know where the 12Z Euro discussion is? I don't think there is one. I'm interested in the 168 hr to 174 hr time range and whether it shows any precip in our area. The pattern is not a great one but both it and the gfs do have a weak wave to our south. I don't see much potential for development but the 168 jr euro suggests the precipitation might eek up to our area even though the wave should be shearing as it comes east which makes it a tough call to how far north the precipitation might get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 I don't think there is one. I'm interested in the 168 hr to 174 hr time range and whether it shows any precip in our area. The pattern is not a great one but both it and the gfs do have a weak wave to our south. I don't see much potential for development but the 168 jr euro suggests the precipitation might eek up to our area even though the wave should be shearing as it comes east which makes it a tough call to how far north the precipitation might get. Light precip from Southern MD and southern Delmarva down into the Southeast. Some moisture over the Apps to the west. zzzz..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Ellinwood, I thought I have been taught on Eastern before its descent into lunacy and on here (and 40 South) to look at the general pattern and set-up more than the specific details for systems that far out. From what I gather in a few of the other sub-forums, the ensembles may be a bit more bullish on precip. At least perhaps there are pieces on the board that may be worth watching in that timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Light precip from Southern MD and southern Delmarva down into the Southeast. Some moisture over the Apps to the west. zzzz..... For the remainder of this year, that might be the excitment. lol. It looked like it was shearing pretty badly as it came east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Ellinwood, I thought I have been taught on Eastern before its descent into lunacy and on here to look at the general pattern and set-up more than the specific details for systems that far out. From what I gather in a few of the other sub-forums, the ensembles may be a bit more bullish on precip. At least there are pieces on the board that may be worth watching in that timeframe. For that time range, the GFS ensemble mean pattern is terrible and most of the individual members also are pretty ugly with one or two exceptions. They show a pattern great for shearing system as they come east. It will be interesting to see what the euro ensemble mean does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 My bad, Wes. I thought I had read elsewhere that it was the euro ensembles that were more bullish. If it was the GFS they were referring to, I misread it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Ellinwood, I thought I have been taught on Eastern before its descent into lunacy and on here to look at the general pattern and set-up more than the specific details for systems that far out. From what I gather in a few of the other sub-forums, the ensembles may be a bit more bullish on precip. At least perhaps there are pieces on the board that may be worth watching in that timeframe. No crap I only described it because Wes wanted to know. I wish I had the ability to shoot-on-sight when I see people seriously posting about QPF and other winter nonsense beyond day 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Ellinwood: Gotcha. Wes, this was what caught my eye on the Philly/NY sub-forum: DT was saying the 0z ECMWF Esenmbles look better than the operational.... Actually supports a potential storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 I don't think there is one. I'm interested in the 168 hr to 174 hr time range and whether it shows any precip in our area. The pattern is not a great one but both it and the gfs do have a weak wave to our south. I don't see much potential for development but the 168 jr euro suggests the precipitation might eek up to our area even though the wave should be shearing as it comes east which makes it a tough call to how far north the precipitation might get. 18Z NAM is suggesting some backlash snows, at least at 54 hrs maybe 60 hrs will knock some sense into me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Big high-temp forecast FAIL today for most of the local guys I listened to this morning. Temps still in the low-to-mid 30s. Most forecasts I saw were around 40 to lower 40s. Of course those also saw us being partly to mostly sunny today. I always find it amazing when people miss a forecast for a failure to look out the window and at upstream obs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark304 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Big high-temp forecast FAIL today for most of the local guys I listened to this morning. Temps still in the low-to-mid 30s. Most forecasts I saw were around 40 to lower 40s. Of course those also saw us being partly to mostly sunny today. I always find it amazing when people miss a forecast for a failure to look out the window and at upstream obs. THIS....FTW!! They consistently miss on high temps here by 4-5 degrees. Always too high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 THIS....FTW!! They consistently miss on high temps here by 4-5 degrees. Always too high. and still no snow of consequence this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 and still no snow of consequence this year I think there will be boundary layer problems. The surface temp is forecast to be around +4C at 54 hours. I don't think we can count on having the same type error as a day when we're counting on the sun to warm us up and there is no sun. This time we're counting on cold advection to cool us down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Big high-temp forecast FAIL today for most of the local guys I listened to this morning. Temps still in the low-to-mid 30s. Most forecasts I saw were around 40 to lower 40s. Of course those also saw us being partly to mostly sunny today. I always find it amazing when people miss a forecast for a failure to look out the window and at upstream obs. looks like mostly m-u 30s tho the climo reports arent out yet. but yeah it's a bit of a bust. i edit cwg on thurs night and added in flurries but kept temps near 40.. though my estimate of clouds moving thru last night was for them to exit around 5-6 today so im not sure why i didnt think to push it down a smidge.. maybe reading nws influenced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Uh, anybody notice the 18z GFS at 138-144 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Uh, anybody notice the 18z GFS at 138-144 hours? Don't start all this again!!!! The last week has been painful enough. PS - Check out the 360 timerange! White Christmas! PPS - Just kidding. Waaaaay too early for that thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Anyone notice the mother high. 1069mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Topped out at 29 today with a half inch of snow that still remains on all surfaces around Carroll Co. Some slippery conditions developing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Uh, anybody notice the 18z GFS at 138-144 hours? Randy, you got it bad bro and you're becoming a bad influence on me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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