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Mid - Atlantic Observations/Discussion


WinterWxLuvr

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Possible blizzard watches coming for the mountains!

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL FIRST IMPACT THE REGION WITH RAIN

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...AND TEMPERATURES MAY BE COLD

ENOUGH FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR A WINTRY MIXTURE FOR THE EASTERN

SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS SUCH AS THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AND EASTERN

RANDOLPH COUNTY. AFTER THE RAIN...AN ARCTIC OUTBREAK WILL OCCUR

LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GUSTY WINDS AND ACCUMULATING

SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WIND CHILLS WILL

DROP WELL BELOW ZERO BY MONDAY. WINTER STORM OR BLIZZARD WATCHES

AND WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

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anyone know where the 12Z Euro discussion is?

I don't think there is one. I'm interested in the 168 hr to 174 hr time range and whether it shows any precip in our area. The pattern is not a great one but both it and the gfs do have a weak wave to our south. I don't see much potential for development but the 168 jr euro suggests the precipitation might eek up to our area even though the wave should be shearing as it comes east which makes it a tough call to how far north the precipitation might get.

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I don't think there is one. I'm interested in the 168 hr to 174 hr time range and whether it shows any precip in our area. The pattern is not a great one but both it and the gfs do have a weak wave to our south. I don't see much potential for development but the 168 jr euro suggests the precipitation might eek up to our area even though the wave should be shearing as it comes east which makes it a tough call to how far north the precipitation might get.

Light precip from Southern MD and southern Delmarva down into the Southeast. Some moisture over the Apps to the west. zzzz.....

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Ellinwood, I thought I have been taught on Eastern before its descent into lunacy and on here (and 40 South) to look at the general pattern and set-up more than the specific details for systems that far out. From what I gather in a few of the other sub-forums, the ensembles may be a bit more bullish on precip. At least perhaps there are pieces on the board that may be worth watching in that timeframe.

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Ellinwood, I thought I have been taught on Eastern before its descent into lunacy and on here to look at the general pattern and set-up more than the specific details for systems that far out. From what I gather in a few of the other sub-forums, the ensembles may be a bit more bullish on precip. At least there are pieces on the board that may be worth watching in that timeframe.

For that time range, the GFS ensemble mean pattern is terrible and most of the individual members also are pretty ugly with one or two exceptions. They show a pattern great for shearing system as they come east. It will be interesting to see what the euro ensemble mean does.

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Ellinwood, I thought I have been taught on Eastern before its descent into lunacy and on here to look at the general pattern and set-up more than the specific details for systems that far out. From what I gather in a few of the other sub-forums, the ensembles may be a bit more bullish on precip. At least perhaps there are pieces on the board that may be worth watching in that timeframe.

No crap :arrowhead:

I only described it because Wes wanted to know. I wish I had the ability to shoot-on-sight when I see people seriously posting about QPF and other winter nonsense beyond day 4.

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I don't think there is one. I'm interested in the 168 hr to 174 hr time range and whether it shows any precip in our area. The pattern is not a great one but both it and the gfs do have a weak wave to our south. I don't see much potential for development but the 168 jr euro suggests the precipitation might eek up to our area even though the wave should be shearing as it comes east which makes it a tough call to how far north the precipitation might get.

18Z NAM is suggesting some backlash snows, at least at 54 hrs

maybe 60 hrs will knock some sense into me

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Big high-temp forecast FAIL today for most of the local guys I listened to this morning. Temps still in the low-to-mid 30s. Most forecasts I saw were around 40 to lower 40s. Of course those also saw us being partly to mostly sunny today. I always find it amazing when people miss a forecast for a failure to look out the window and at upstream obs.

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Big high-temp forecast FAIL today for most of the local guys I listened to this morning. Temps still in the low-to-mid 30s. Most forecasts I saw were around 40 to lower 40s. Of course those also saw us being partly to mostly sunny today. I always find it amazing when people miss a forecast for a failure to look out the window and at upstream obs.

THIS....FTW!!

They consistently miss on high temps here by 4-5 degrees. Always too high.

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and still no snow of consequence this year :axe:

I think there will be boundary layer problems. The surface temp is forecast to be around +4C at 54 hours. I don't think we can count on having the same type error as a day when we're counting on the sun to warm us up and there is no sun. This time we're counting on cold advection to cool us down.

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Big high-temp forecast FAIL today for most of the local guys I listened to this morning. Temps still in the low-to-mid 30s. Most forecasts I saw were around 40 to lower 40s. Of course those also saw us being partly to mostly sunny today. I always find it amazing when people miss a forecast for a failure to look out the window and at upstream obs.

looks like mostly m-u 30s tho the climo reports arent out yet. but yeah it's a bit of a bust. i edit cwg on thurs night and added in flurries but kept temps near 40.. though my estimate of clouds moving thru last night was for them to exit around 5-6 today so im not sure why i didnt think to push it down a smidge.. maybe reading nws influenced.

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