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Mid - Atlantic Observations/Discussion


WinterWxLuvr

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What you are asking about is what I call "conversational snow." Flurries, off and on snow showers, sometimes accumulating but often not (or often accumulating a dusting which then blows away). I used to live in Blackburg, VA, west of I-81 in the mountains of Southwest Virginia, and we'd get that a high number of times every winter. Blacksburg is high (2100 feet) and while east of the Allegheny Front, it is nonetheless CLOSE to it, so lots of rogue upslope snow showers "run the gauntlet." This is one big thing I miss about Blacksburg - these conversational events lend themselves to a very wintry feel, even if they don't usually amount to much in terms of accumulation.

But in the DC area, as you've noted, for the most part they just don't happen. I have found snow here is basically 100% storm driven and therefore very much all or nothing. You get a big winter storm, or you get nothing. The only time I've seen us get "snow showers" is on the tail end of a rainy lakes cutter or apps runner (e.g., "back side snow showers," which are also technically storm driven) or sometimes with a very strong arctic frontal passage or on the fringes of a clipper. These are all pretty rare events, and generally are the result of the main system missing us rather than us actually getting true "snow shower activity."

It is one of the negatives of living here. That said, the dynamics that make summer rainshowers and "pop up" thunderstorms possible don't generally exist in winter, so MOST places in the US are in a similar situation. Outside of lake effect snow, or orographic enhancement seen in mountainous regions, almost nowhere gets snow absent a larger scale synoptic feature.

I agree that it's one of the negatives of living here. I lived in Wise Co. at about 2500 feet elevation and I can remember every winter several days with what I would have to call snow squalls. One minute it might be partly cloudy, a little sun, the next, almost a whiteout, 10 min later, back to partly cloudy, and this could go on for a day or two.

I guess it is all or nothing. Maybe something will come along soon.

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I have one question for some of you northern Va, wva panhandle, central MD, veterans. I have only lived in NoVA for the past three years, and the one event I have never witnessed is a cloudy day with snow flurries and snow showers. There was an event here in Fred Co. around MLK day in 2009 where we got about 3 inches of snow but I don't know what that was as I was out of town.

My question is.....is there any scenario where we can get snow showers? What experiences along those lines can anyone share? I find it more frustrating to have cold days and be about 50 airmiles from blizzard warnings that I do when storms miss us south or west.

They occasionally happen. But usually it ends up being a dusting to an inch or two at the most. I don't know what the explanation is meteorologically, but we do get snow showers from events other than storms and clippers. But you are correct, it doesn't happen very often. Also, when it does happen it usually causes havoc on the roads, because it is totally unexpected.

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They occasionally happen. But usually it ends up being a dusting to an inch or two at the most. I don't know what the explanation is meteorologically, but we do get snow showers from events other than storms and clippers. But you are correct, it doesn't happen very often. Also, when it does happen it usually causes havoc on the roads, because it is totally unexpected.

Usually we only get flurries or brief snow showers when some vort swings through in northwest flow and if there is no low to the south, we rarely get an accumulation. The reason is any westerly or northwesterly flow usually provides downsloping making it hard to get precipitation east of the mountains. Occasionally, a stay flurry will get to us if the trajectories from the Great Lakes is optimal but that's unusual. I thought we might see some yesterday but it was a no go.

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The only time I've seen us get "snow showers" is on the tail end of a rainy lakes cutter or apps runner (e.g., "back side snow showers," which are also technically storm driven) or sometimes with a very strong arctic frontal passage or on the fringes of a clipper.

In addition to those causes, we'll also occasionally see shower activity resulting from a long fetch off the lakes.

I disagree that it's extremely rare. Most years, I'll see just as many, if not more, days with just snow flurries/showers than accumulating snow.

Over the past 5 winters (excluding 08-09, which I can't find), I've had 38 days with snow/sleet with an inch or less of accumulation.

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I would say in the northern and western suburbs of Baltimore measurable snow squalls (quarter inch or more) occur 3 to 4 times per winter. They generally are less than an inch but I have seen up to 2.0 on occasion. There are many more days with just a wintry look with noticeable flurries that don't really accumulate, or just dust at most.

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Don't look now, but the 18Z GFS gets snow into the western burbs... Furthest east yet of any op run in two days. Big difference is the NAO is forecasted to be stronger, compressing the PV in Canada, and thus shunting the energy further south. Keep hope alive! :weight_lift:

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Don't look now, but the 18Z GFS gets snow into the western burbs... Furthest east yet of any op run in two days. Big difference is the NAO is forecasted to be stronger, compressing the PV in Canada, and thus shunting the energy further south. Keep hope alive! :weight_lift:

It sounds super cold in the later frames. What would -20 850's mean at the surface....mid teens? Eh not that cold

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It sounds super cold in the later frames. What would -20 850's mean at the surface....mid teens? Eh not that cold

Personally, I'm looking forward to 4 straight days of gusty, cold NW winds.

Highs in the mid/upper 20's I'd guess with that 850 temp , but the temp would stay up at night with the winds.

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Don't look now, but the 18Z GFS gets snow into the western burbs... Furthest east yet of any op run in two days. Big difference is the NAO is forecasted to be stronger, compressing the PV in Canada, and thus shunting the energy further south. Keep hope alive! :weight_lift:

18Z actually dumps on central PA hard. But you know its not good when 18z GFS has rain in the cities. Its usually the run showing the mega bomb.

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Lots of cold air coming after this storm, but not a great pattern for a snow storm here anytime soon. At this point, I've all but given up on seeing snow here before Christmas. Kind of a kick in the sack, but it is winter in DC after all - kind of used to it at this point. Hopefully, we see something good later in February (not counting on January to deliver at this point, but who knows - maybe we'll get lucky there).

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And once again it'll warm up nicely just in time for rain

:thumbsdown:

although most may be concerned about any warm ups showing on the medium range computers, I'm looking forward to it

this pattern has not and will not produce snow of any consequence for us

we need a pattern reload/change and that won't come until after a warm up and the natural progression of the season

until then, we're chasing our snow bunny tails looking for storms

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Just pouring snow out here near Mannings, West Virginia. Wow - it sure was NOT forecast. Beautiful scene this morning! Moderate snow is just POURING! Everything is white!! WOW WOW WOW !!!! Just measured three quarters of an inch of snow on the road and grass!!!

WOOOOOOOOOO--HOOOOOOOOO!!!!!

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