Chinook Posted April 15, 2023 Share Posted April 15, 2023 1 hour ago, mayjawintastawm said: Smokeybandit, yours was the highest in the Metro area, looking at COCORAHS. Everywhere within the 470 extended beltway was <1" and the only 6" totals outside of the foothills were at the top of the Palmer Divide from Black Forest on west. Congrats! CoCoRAHS, invented in Fort Collins, after the 1997 flood. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted April 15, 2023 Share Posted April 15, 2023 1 hour ago, smokeybandit said: The reported totals near me seem ridiculously low. One report from this morning is 3" about 10 miles south of me, yet I had 3" by 6pm yesterday. Precip totals around the Metro area were also lower than predicted, 0.1" to 0.3" generally (we had 0.13" and the point forecast was 0.51" yesterday morning). You were probably under a couple of micro-bands that did the job. Driving around yesterday evening, the snow intensity was incredibly variable just over a mile or two in Lone Tree-Centennial-Greenwood Village. I wonder what causes those effects- subtle convection?? Lake effect from Cherry Creek Reservoir? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted April 16, 2023 Share Posted April 16, 2023 GFS wants to do the snow thing again this coming weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted April 16, 2023 Share Posted April 16, 2023 2 hours ago, smokeybandit said: GFS wants to do the snow thing again this coming weekend. GFS is like a 6 year old kid... entertaining, but enough to give you a headache sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted April 17, 2023 Author Share Posted April 17, 2023 Even more from the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted April 17, 2023 Author Share Posted April 17, 2023 23 hours ago, ValpoVike said: Even more from the euro. Poof, gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted April 18, 2023 Share Posted April 18, 2023 5 hours ago, ValpoVike said: Poof, gone. The story of the Spring to date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted April 22, 2023 Share Posted April 22, 2023 Nice 2.5" of snow last night, the most moisture at one time in a couple months. Pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted April 22, 2023 Author Share Posted April 22, 2023 2 hours ago, mayjawintastawm said: Nice 2.5" of snow last night, the most moisture at one time in a couple months. Pretty. Cool and happy you finally got some snow. Next week looks interesting, especially for the foothills. Both GFS and Euro show a dumping across the Boulder and Larimer foothills. The lower elevations may get a nice soaking. But we’ll see if it survives the next day or two… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted April 22, 2023 Share Posted April 22, 2023 Got about 2.5" here too. GFS and Euro still teasing something bigger for mid-week next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted April 22, 2023 Share Posted April 22, 2023 4 hours ago, ValpoVike said: Cool and happy you finally got some snow. Next week looks interesting, especially for the foothills. Both GFS and Euro show a dumping across the Boulder and Larimer foothills. The lower elevations may get a nice soaking. But we’ll see if it survives the next day or two… 3.2" for the final today as we were under that very last band of snow that only quit around 1 PM. The next week system looks really interesting- sometimes (May 21 last year anyone?) they wind up colder than billed, which could make for a notable Tuesday night/Wednesday. Good thing few trees have leaves yet. After this week we can make a warm season thread, but maybe not yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted April 23, 2023 Share Posted April 23, 2023 Oh 18z GFS, please let that verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted April 23, 2023 Share Posted April 23, 2023 GFS, NAM and Euro are all on board with an impressive spring snowstorm for south of Denver with very sharp cutoffs north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted April 23, 2023 Author Share Posted April 23, 2023 06z GFS actually puts the heaviest north and west of Denver bullseye on Larimer and Boulder. Euro likes Denver and loves the Palmer divide. Clearly someone is gonna get pasted edit: holy smokes look at the 06z GFS QPF, broad 3” with some crazy 4”+ amounts. NAM is trending similarly thru the end of its run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted April 23, 2023 Share Posted April 23, 2023 Euro with a big jump south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted April 23, 2023 Share Posted April 23, 2023 6 hours ago, smokeybandit said: GFS, NAM and Euro are all on board with an impressive spring snowstorm for south of Denver with very sharp cutoffs north. Smokeybandit, I think this one's for you... I'll be right on the hairy edge at 5650'. Honestly big snow this time of year doesn't excite me quite as much as it would in March, but I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted April 23, 2023 Share Posted April 23, 2023 11 minutes ago, smokeybandit said: Euro with a big jump south. something looks weird to me though with that- I can only see Euro ensemble with free pivotalweather, but the maximum QPF (like Pueblo/Walsenburg) looks to be too close to where the 500 mb low tracks, which is not too far from where it tracked last run, though it is faster this time. But I certainly do not speak fluent modelese. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 23, 2023 Share Posted April 23, 2023 The NWS has issued a winter storm watch effective for many areas above 6000 ft and the Palmer Divide. Here is the text. I havent' really looked into it. I'm not sure 6000ft would be the cutoff, but they do include the Palmer Divide in the watch, just above 5500-6000ft I believe. Quote WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy snow likely. 1 to 2 feet of snow expected, with locally higher amounts possible. * WHERE...Front Range mountains, including Rocky Mountain NP, the Indian Peaks Wilderness, and the Eisenhower Tunnel, as well as foothill communities such as Estes Park, Nederland, and Evergreen above 8,000 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted April 23, 2023 Share Posted April 23, 2023 The one covering PD is for 5-10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted April 24, 2023 Share Posted April 24, 2023 OK now GFS says 4" of snow and only 0.88" QPF for my house (like half of the 18z run) while NAM says 14" of snow and 2.5" QPF on the 00z runs. GFS ensemble is 1.4" QPF but only 3 inches of snow (that actually sounds pretty realistic). SREF mean is close to the GEFS. NAM is nuts. Bedtime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted April 24, 2023 Share Posted April 24, 2023 Models coming in more south again, with less QPF locally and some with a precip hole over the Denver metro. Why am I not surprised. Good for SE CO though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted April 24, 2023 Share Posted April 24, 2023 This storm turning into a nothingburger for NE Colorado Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 25, 2023 Share Posted April 25, 2023 Here is the NWS update from today. (it's in a pdf format or something.) For areas below 6000ft, it's kind of what was expected, I suppose. Rain will be pretty helpful, as the high plains are still in drought. This will bring plenty of rain to eastern Colorado, Kansas, and Oklahoma over the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted April 25, 2023 Share Posted April 25, 2023 Some really nice rain for about the last 4 hours, even before the "main event" (or non-event for us). Of course my rain gauge decided to jam right after it started. Have to go up on the roof tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted April 26, 2023 Author Share Posted April 26, 2023 A big bust up here. My neighbor 100’ above me has about an inch on the ground. I have nothing but a wet deck. I have casually noticed that the Pinpoint Weather app from Fox31 has outperformed the WPC guidance all winter for my backyard. Strange and sad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted April 26, 2023 Share Posted April 26, 2023 Around an inch of rain here from everyone else's home weather stations, the most in just about 8 months. Temp 39 and it doesn't seem likely that we'll see a single flake. Looks from radar that the snow level is right around 6200 ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted April 26, 2023 Share Posted April 26, 2023 My 5-12" winter storm warning has gotten me about 2 flurries and temps never got below freezing. One hell of a busted forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted April 27, 2023 Share Posted April 27, 2023 Two things really surprised me about that storm: 1) the snow level for real accumulation was much higher than forecast- looks like about 7500 feet; and 2) the total precip was much, much less than forecast south and east of the Metro area. Heavy precip over 2 inches was confined to the Pueblo area. Even SE Colorado got shafted. If it hadn't been for the convection earlier in the day, it would have been bust-o-rama for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted April 27, 2023 Author Share Posted April 27, 2023 3 hours ago, mayjawintastawm said: Two things really surprised me about that storm: 1) the snow level for real accumulation was much higher than forecast- looks like about 7500 feet; and 2) the total precip was much, much less than forecast south and east of the Metro area. Heavy precip over 2 inches was confined to the Pueblo area. Even SE Colorado got shafted. If it hadn't been for the convection earlier in the day, it would have been bust-o-rama for everyone. That’s about right. I am at 7310 and about 100’ above me got light accumulation. Around 8500 it looks like considerably more from what I can see today. Does anyone know how much rain fell north of DIA? It looked like some very slow movers in that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted April 27, 2023 Share Posted April 27, 2023 32 minutes ago, ValpoVike said: That’s about right. I am at 7310 and about 100’ above me got light accumulation. Around 8500 it looks like considerably more from what I can see today. Does anyone know how much rain fell north of DIA? It looked like some very slow movers in that area. There was a narrow N-S band of 1.4-1.8 inches just north and south of DIA from Weld County south to SE Aurora, according to COCORAHS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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