Chinook Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 finally caught a good cloud 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 In case anyone thought today was too warm here (+60 F at my house, first in 2 mos): from Mount Washington, NH, a paltry 6288 feet above sea level. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted February 4, 2023 Author Share Posted February 4, 2023 1 hour ago, Chinook said: finally caught a good cloud Great grab. I have been admiring that cloud all evening. It is spectacular. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 4 hours ago, mayjawintastawm said: In case anyone thought today was too warm here (+60 F at my house, first in 2 mos): from Mount Washington, NH, a paltry 6288 feet above sea level. As I mentioned in the Lakes/Ohio Valley banter thread, I have a hard time imagining a -44 degree value without radiational cooling and a valley with lighter winds, or at least some localized low spot. It's truly a once-in-a-generation 850mb temperature up there and also the same for wind chills for some. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 Cold storm incoming next week for the southwest deserts. It may be cold enough for some flakes in the Phoenix metro area. At the very least, snow levels look to be as low as 1,500ft Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. Snip from the NWS Phoenix discussion: Precipitation is also expected Tuesday night along a cold front and it may (15 percent) be cold enough for rain showers to change over to snow showers before tapering off across the lower deserts, including portions of the Phoenix area Wednesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 The models predict a significant snow storm next Wednesday. As usual the GFS is loving the 11.8 to 18.1" near Denver, as it always loves forecasting high amounts of snow for the roughly 5-day forecast. Lots could change before the NWS issues a winter storm watch, but I do expect a winter storm watch at some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 All the major models have basically the same storm setup, which is rare this far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 I have a plane ticket for Wednesday that goes DCA-ORD-DEN-SHR. Except I'm already in SHR (long story) and kept the ticket on the hopes that maybe bad weather would allow me to cancel it and actually get my points back instead of just a voucher. So, I'm rooting for you, Denver! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
n1vek Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 It is shocking how consistent the models are with this storm setup. It makes total sense as I am supposed to fly from DIA to Love Field in Dallas Wednesday early afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 Models are now consistently backing off on any major snow totals in NE CO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 7 hours ago, smokeybandit said: Models are now consistently backing off on any major snow totals in NE CO. Models generally have Larimer/Weld counties with pretty low amounts of snow. I believe it is due to mainly downsloping from the north at the surface. Also I think a lot of the lift will be towards southern Colorado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 NAM has a pretty good hit for the Palmer Divide, which, selfishly is really all I care about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 WPC values really only support the 6"-11" for Pueblo to the Raton Mesa, 5" -7" for the Palmer Divide, possibly 5"-9" for Colorado Springs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 Yawn. Grumble. Getting pretty dry again, under half an inch of water since 1/1 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 Things bumped back up a little for a light to moderate impact event with 0.25-0.5" WE tonight through tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 Looks like next week could be interesting in WY, MT, and the Dakotas. Models have been sniffing something out for the Feb. 22-ish time frame since it came into the long-range GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 This 6-12" winter storm warning looks like it'll struggle to get anywhere close to 6, unless the back end of this storm overperforms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 not quite in Denver Quote Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 151431Z - 152030Z SUMMARY...Heavy snow with rates of 1-1.5 in/hr is expected to start shortly and will continue through the early afternoon. Heavy snow may impact travel. DISCUSSION...As of 1430 UTC, regional radar and satellite imagery showed a broad band of mostly light to moderate snow exiting the central/southern Rockies into portions of the adjacent High Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 We've been under this really narrow band off and on all afternoon... 5.4" so far from the storm, the last 2" super-low density snow. Could probably do the driveway with a leaf blower, mostly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 @Chinook What ratios would you generally use for snowfall out in these parts? (Wyoming, Colorado, etc) Looked like your post earlier this week was using a range of about 10:1-15:1? I know Kuchera maps are called clown maps for a reason , but I was wondering if they handle things better where precip type is not much of an issue. Thanks for helping me get up to speed on an entirely new climate! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted February 16, 2023 Author Share Posted February 16, 2023 2 hours ago, jacindc said: @Chinook What ratios would you generally use for snowfall out in these parts? (Wyoming, Colorado, etc) Looked like your post earlier this week was using a range of about 10:1-15:1? I know Kuchera maps are called clown maps for a reason , but I was wondering if they handle things better where precip type is not much of an issue. Thanks for helping me get up to speed on an entirely new climate! Ratios can be frustrating here. Personally I use 10:1 as I have seen too many storms with much higher predictions miss terribly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 20 hours ago, ValpoVike said: Ratios can be frustrating here. Personally I use 10:1 as I have seen too many storms with much higher predictions miss terribly. Ratios are all over the place, but generally 10:1 would be conservative. For example, the 6.3" we got here total over the last storm was from 0.36" of water (17.5:1 average) and I think that was a fairly typical storm. On the other hand, the 11ish inches we got right after Christmas had well over an inch of water in it, probably around 1.3 inches (8.5:1) and maybe even a bit more. That was definitely heavier than usual. Looking at DEN from Dec 2021-Mar 2022 (excluding a rainstorm in late March), there was 46.7" of snow with 2.88" water, so average 16.2:1. My sense in our 13 winters here is that the frequent "misses" are more from QPF that doesn't pan out as predicted. I'm guessing WY would be drier and colder than here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 2 hours ago, mayjawintastawm said: Ratios are all over the place, but generally 10:1 would be conservative. For example, the 6.3" we got here total over the last storm was from 0.36" of water (17.5:1 average) and I think that was a fairly typical storm. On the other hand, the 11ish inches we got right after Christmas had well over an inch of water in it, probably around 1.3 inches (8.5:1) and maybe even a bit more. That was definitely heavier than usual. Looking at DEN from Dec 2021-Mar 2022 (excluding a rainstorm in late March), there was 46.7" of snow with 2.88" water, so average 16.2:1. My sense in our 13 winters here is that the frequent "misses" are more from QPF that doesn't pan out as predicted. I'm guessing WY would be drier and colder than here. Definitely drier, even in the comparatively "lush" area in the eastern Bighorn foothills. I think the heavy wet snow is more likely to come in Oct/Nov and March/April. I'm guesstimating here, but it looks like Sheridan reported about .7" QPF over Jan. 26-28, and an observer not too far from me reported 13.4" (not sure the exact time frame and I think snow was still falling). So that's a pretty good ratio :), though the wind was definitely blowing in a good upslope direction. Got some more snow coming next week, will pay closer attention. Right now the big diff in the forecast is QPF (Euro 1.3", GFS .8"). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 OK so this is amazing. Never in my 20+ years of reading AFDs have I seen a poem in one. Here is tonight's from a likely bored forecaster named Rodriguez at BOU: so cool. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 848 PM MST Fri Feb 17 2023 .UPDATE... Issued at 819 PM MST Fri Feb 17 2023 `Twas a day of photogenic clouds, and it drew the weather weenie crowds. They come in search of information, But I am a man of evasion. In my brain, emptiness abounds. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 The ECMWF today shows some snow on Wednesday for northern Colorado, with the large weather system. That maybe something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 GFS and Euro moved the southern extent of the storm further south in recent runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 3-month drought change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 Just caught this, looking at the Bighorns from south of Sheridan. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 today's NWS winter storm briefing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 So, the "low end forecast" for snow from this "storm" was 2.2 inches. We got 0.8", if I lean the ruler over just right. And there were supposed to be some wind gusts. Max wind at our house was maybe 12 MPH. Well. It is cold like was forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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