smokeybandit Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 Euro and GFS both have big hits for NE Colorado, yet the NAM says "what storm?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 3 hours ago, smokeybandit said: Euro and GFS both have big hits for NE Colorado, yet the NAM says "what storm?" That's why it's the No Accumulation Model. Misses stuff so frequently outside of 36 hrs. Would love to hear an opinion from an actual met about why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 Even as the NWS issues WSWarnings, the current NAM run still says "meh" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 2 hours ago, smokeybandit said: Even as the NWS issues WSWarnings, the current NAM run still says "meh" BOU AFD says "NAM is generally discounted in these types of situations." Maybe it doesn't handle upslope well. We could use a FRM (Front Range Model) that assumes Boulder down to Genesee will always win, and go from there. Maybe the folks at NCAR could whip something up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 This stinks. I was out of town for the last storm, now I have to fly out of town last minute before this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 2 hours ago, smokeybandit said: This stinks. I was out of town for the last storm, now I have to fly out of town last minute before this one. NOW we'll definitely get a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 The GFS has 15-20 knot easterly winds at 700mb during the height of the storm with -8C up there and maybe 30F at the surface, which is strangely warm. That's always a sign of a heavy snow band at the foothills. (see attached image) as QPF is quite high for just 6 hours there. The 18z GFS and 00z GFS have some different areas that have 11" of snow in 12 hours! Not exactly the highest confidence on that, but hey, it's a lot of snow. As mentioned, the 18z NAM had kind of a weird forecast. It has kind of been that way for years. When this model switched its name from the Eta to the NAM in 2007 or 2008. Then around 2008, they replaced the core of the model with the WRF software. It was, and is, considered the premier mesoscale model for the USA, but the snow forecasts for the Front Range have been kind of wonky for a long time. Check NWS Boulder for official snow forecast and Winter Storm Warning details. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 snow bands getting going around Denver Quote METAR: KDEN 180412Z 03008KT 1/2SM R35L/4000VP6000FT SN FZFG VV006 M03/M04 A2964 RMK AO2 TWR VIS 1 P0002 T10331039 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Lots of dryslotting this evening for most of the Metro area as band has set up just E. I think we have just about an inch. Hopefully this will fill in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 radar is a solid area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Never really got going here. 4.3" as of 7 AM. Still snowing lightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 They've got 7" in Loveland and 7-8" around DIA right now. Maybe other spotters will measure 7" soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Ticking up, but every time I think it's final, it starts up again. Asymptotic snow. Most times, storms exit quicker than forecast, this is the opposite. I imagine someplace like Bennett or Elizabeth will do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 a lot more windy at DIA right now with wind gusts to 34kt (39mph), with almost all other airports less windy though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 snapshot of higher winds that lasted for about 1 hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Those winds were pretty good, made me wonder if they kept up whether we'd meet blizzard criteria for a little bit though falling snow was not heavy. Total 5.8", would have been a bit more if I did the clear-the-board-every-6-hours thing. Most spots near here were just about 6". Smokeybandit, not sure how far E you live, but the eastern part of Parker definitely got into one of the heavier N-S bands. One report from central Arapahoe county was 12.5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 I'm out of town, but this one would be a tough one to measure with the winds. I'd guess 8" with limited knowledge of what fell in my yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 These images are from somewhat earlier. There have not been a lot of new storm reports Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 On 1/15/2023 at 1:49 PM, mayjawintastawm said: thanks. Yes, Flagstaff is Arizona, isn't it. I don't think Arizona weather is discussed much in the forum (nor is Utah, much) - good opportunity to start a thread, and maybe attract some other posters from AZ! Also, saw that you might be from Tamaqua. Super interesting weather around there with the rain/snow/ice line always nearby... we lived in Allentown and Bethlehem back in the early to mid 90s. I was born and raised in Bethlehem, ended up in Tamaqua, and now I'm in Phoenix. I like it much better here, but as you said, the weather in Tamaqua was interesting to say the least. Hazleton was better for anyone who loved snow as we did dance on the rain snow line. Many times, it would rain in Tamaqua, but just a few hundred feet higher and five miles away, they'd be plowing snow. Sometimes it looked like it does out here. Snow on the mountains around town, but a wet, brown backyard for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 This was a snow storm for Colorado, just not where any of us live (or lived, in my case.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted January 22, 2023 Author Share Posted January 22, 2023 15 minutes ago, Chinook said: This was a snow storm for Colorado, just not where any of us live (or lived, in my case.) It is good to see snow in the SE corner though. They are in D2-D3 still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 1 hour ago, ValpoVike said: It is good to see snow in the SE corner though. They are in D2-D3 still. when have they not been in D2-D3 drought? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 7 hours ago, Chinook said: This was a snow storm for Colorado, just not where any of us live (or lived, in my case.) Friends just north of Burlington CO got 11+ inches with drifts on their barn up to 7 feet. Biggest January snow for them in a loooong time. A bit hard to handle now but they'll appreciate it come spring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 Finally got my big snow here in Big Horn WY. I didn't set up a board, but I think we're close to a foot and it's still coming down. (An observer a couple miles from here reported 13.4", though they might have a smidge more elevation and are closer to the mountain.) Upslope ftw. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 inspiring pic of the day 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 3 hours ago, jacindc said: Finally got my big snow here in Big Horn WY. I didn't set up a board, but I think we're close to a foot and it's still coming down. (An observer a couple miles from here reported 13.4", though they might have a smidge more elevation and are closer to the mountain.) Upslope ftw. reasons why Greybull may have the driest soil in the northern US 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 923 SXUS75 KBYZ 282343RERBYZRECORD EVENT REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT443 PM MST SAT JAN 28 2023...RECORD DAILY PRECIPITATION MAXIMUM SET AT SHERIDAN WY...A PRECIPITATION RECORD OF 0.68 WAS SET AT SHERIDAN WY TODAY.THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 0.47 SET IN 1916. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 All those little bits of snow the last 2 weeks added up to 2.7" here, so Jan total=9.8", season to date 33.1". Guessing season total will be 60" +/- 10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 Now that a lot of the West is in a non-active pattern, I'll post this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 6 hours ago, Chinook said: Now that a lot of the West is in a non-active pattern, You mean "boring as hell" pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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