aldie 22 Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 Lol it hasn't even gotten cold yet and the talk is already about the reload....i love this place 2 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said: Lol it hasn't even gotten cold yet and the talk is already about the reload....i love this place Everyone is hunting first flakes. Once we get those, it’s HECS or bust until March. Including myself in that commentary lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said: Lol it hasn't even gotten cold yet and the talk is already about the reload....i love this place Sorry...we'll stop the long-range discussion. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 10, 2022 Author Share Posted November 10, 2022 Lets just see if we can actually get our first freeze early next week. Looks marginal for the lowlands, but decent chance most areas (outside of DC proper) can get below 32 for a few hours Monday and/or Tuesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said: Lol it hasn't even gotten cold yet and the talk is already about the reload....i love this place The pattern after the pattern change’s pattern changes once more. That’s the one! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 10, 2022 Author Share Posted November 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: The pattern after the pattern change’s pattern changes once more. That’s the one! Modeled 'favorable' patterns in Nov look good on paper. That is all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 17 minutes ago, CAPE said: Lets just see if we can actually get our first freeze early next week. Looks marginal for the lowlands, but decent chance most areas (outside of DC proper) can get below 32 for a few hours Monday and/or Tuesday morning. Seems like a “hard freeze” will wait until late next week for most, but Mon-Tues should be enough for BWI and RIC to hit 32 or just below. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 50 minutes ago, mattie g said: Sorry...we'll stop the long-range discussion. Dude 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 Why anybody wants snow and cold right now is beyond me. Start that stuff the Monday before Thanksgiving. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 2 hours ago, WxUSAF said: The pattern after the pattern change’s pattern changes once more. That’s the one! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 35 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Why anybody wants snow and cold right now is beyond me. Start that stuff the Monday before Thanksgiving. Dude, the Monday before thanksgiving is only 10 days away. lol. You act like peeps are wanting snow in sept. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 So it begins… 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 +PNA Dec coming to fruition.. I'm excited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 17 hours ago, Rtd208 said: I also live down the street. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 14 hours ago, nj2va said: So it begins… -EPO's with +NAO's have been trending colder in shorter range (NAO underperforming index) (I made a thread on this threat 2 days ago but it was deleted..) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
katabatic Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 14 hours ago, nj2va said: So it begins… Still yellow with NWS, but got some dark greens with the folks at WPC… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 20 hours ago, WxUSAF said: The pattern after the pattern change’s pattern changes once more. That’s the one! Mid-March into early April will be rockin'!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 12, 2022 Author Share Posted November 12, 2022 Pattern as advertised on GEFS is 'getting there' towards the end of the month. The (upcoming) Pac jet retraction has the ideal ridge/trough position around AK inverted as depicted, so that could use some work. The AO is slightly+ to neutral. NAO trending negative.. moving into Dec ideally we see the NA +heights shifted a bit more over central/southern GL, with the associated trough further SE towards the 50-50 region, and some improvement in the Pacific. All that said, we see winter storms quite often with less than ideal h5 patterns. Need to get into the front end of snow climo period as much as anything. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 Hmmm 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 12, 2022 Author Share Posted November 12, 2022 43 minutes ago, yoda said: Hmmm I made a post about the 'potential' during this period a couple days ago, and it has been discussed since. The advertised pattern has been pretty good, with possible waves riding the boundary, but climo is a major problem. Next week should feature legit wintry conditions (with some snow chances) for the western highlands, but further east, probably just some chilly weather and any wave that tracks close enough would probably be rain. Never know though- some frozen not out of the question esp inland. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 20 minutes ago, CAPE said: I made a post about the 'potential' during this period a couple days ago, and it has been discussed since. The advertised pattern has been pretty good, with possible waves riding the boundary, but climo is a major problem. Next week should feature legit wintry conditions (with some snow chances) for the western highlands, but further east, probably just some chilly weather and any wave that tracks close enough would probably be rain. Never know though- some frozen not out of the question esp inland. Agree. Areas at low elevation at low latitude that once again see early measurable snow are the Southern Plains and lower Ms Valley. Pretty much same as last couple years. Oklahoma City is getting their 1st tonight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 12, 2022 Author Share Posted November 12, 2022 16 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: Agree. Areas at low elevation at low latitude that once again see early measurable snow are the Southern Plains and lower Ms Valley. Pretty much same as last couple years. Oklahoma City is getting their 1st tonight. Early season cold tends to drain into the intermountain west/ the N central US, and from there it can sometimes make it into the south central US. So yes, not that uncommon for places like that to see measurable snow sooner than many areas of the MA. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 12, 2022 Author Share Posted November 12, 2022 Regarding the late week period and storm potential- as advertised there may be enough cold nearby to get involved(for favored areas) should a wave track close enough. Guidance has generally been suggesting a southern shortwave ejecting northeastward along the boundary at that time, but the depicted location/orientation of the NS energy dropping down with an amplified EPO ridge(breaking) would tend to dampen it and shunt it eastward off the coast to our south. Far enough out that the location/interaction of these features will likely change some. A thread the needle type deal, and fighting climo for the lowlands. 6z GFS h5 heights/ vorticity for reference- 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 1 hour ago, CAPE said: Regarding the late week period and storm potential- as advertised there may be enough cold nearby to get involved(for favored areas) should a wave track close enough. Guidance has generally been suggesting a southern shortwave ejecting northeastward along the boundary at that time, but the depicted location/orientation of the NS energy dropping down with an amplified EPO ridge(breaking) would tend to dampen it and shunt it eastward off the coast to our south. Far enough out that the location/interaction of these features will likely change some. A thread the needle type deal, and fighting climo for the lowlands. 6z GFS h5 heights/ vorticity for reference- At least we are back to talking about it…thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 12, 2022 Author Share Posted November 12, 2022 20 minutes ago, Solution Man said: At least we are back to talking about it…thanks It's definitely worth keeping an eye on. A little something to track other than first freeze for many areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 2 hours ago, CAPE said: Regarding the late week period and storm potential- as advertised there may be enough cold nearby to get involved(for favored areas) should a wave track close enough. Guidance has generally been suggesting a southern shortwave ejecting northeastward along the boundary at that time, but the depicted location/orientation of the NS energy dropping down with an amplified EPO ridge(breaking) would tend to dampen it and shunt it eastward off the coast to our south. Far enough out that the location/interaction of these features will likely change some. A thread the needle type deal, and fighting climo for the lowlands. 6z GFS h5 heights/ vorticity for reference- Yep, 0z GFS shows a possible path to some snow for the lowlands, has the southern sortwave make it higher up the coast due to the NS energy staying further north and less "flat". It also appears to slow down the northern energy helping the southern part up the coast. The 6z GFS shows like @CAPE said a scenario where the northern shortwave acts to squash the southern energy before it can make it far enough up the coast. This is further worsened by the northern energy coming in faster and less consolidated. The trends to watch for this time period IMO (which probably isn't worth a lot) would be to see the northern energy become less stretched out and slow down a bit in relation to the southern wave, which would allow it to make it's way up the coast. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 12, 2022 Author Share Posted November 12, 2022 32 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Yep, 0z GFS shows a possible path to some snow for the lowlands, has the southern sortwave make it higher up the coast due to the NS energy staying further north and less "flat". It also appears to slow down the northern energy helping the southern part up the coast. The 6z GFS shows like @CAPE said a scenario where the northern shortwave acts to squash the southern energy before it can make it far enough up the coast. This is further worsened by the northern energy coming in faster and less consolidated. The trends to watch for this time period IMO (which probably isn't worth a lot) would be to see the northern energy become less stretched out and slow down a bit in relation to the southern wave, which would allow it to make it's way up the coast. I used the 6z GFS to illustrate the general setup. There will be fairly significant differences in the details from run to run on the ops at this range. The ens means suggest a weakish wave tracking NE off the NC coast for now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 yay! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 1 hour ago, StormchaserChuck! said: yay! CMC has no signature for this at all. Still far out in time for op runs. euro will be telling…..been waiting a year to say that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 Up in Perrysburg OH this weekend for a college buddy’s wedding. It went from 66 degrees and sunny yesterday to 34 and snow today. Fatty flakes too. Not really sticking to much but cartops, but beautiful nonetheless. Definitely feel bad for my friends who have to move their wedding indoors due to the snow Winters almost back lads! This wave for next week looks somewhat interesting for us down in the DMV. Could see a bit of snow fall. From the typically colder areas from PSU over to Northern carroll and points WNW, particularly along the Allegheny front in WVA and W MD. Climo says it’s likely snow tv for 90%+ of us and a sloppy, cold rain near I-95, but we’ve seen crazier stuff happen in November. Thanks for the updates @Cape! Been waiting a year to see your wonderful posts. #SetupMaster 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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