CAPE Posted November 5, 2022 Author Share Posted November 5, 2022 GFS op doing its thing in the LR. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 5, 2022 Author Share Posted November 5, 2022 Latest CFS for early-mid Dec. Similar to latest Euro weeklies. This would be a heck of a pattern leading up to the holidays. 14 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted November 5, 2022 Share Posted November 5, 2022 1 hour ago, CAPE said: GFS op doing its thing in the LR. GFS done gone bowling. Is that a noreaster? I've heard tell about those sort of storms from the old timers but haven't experienced one in recent years. JB also just posted about the Dec 8-15 period. Might as well stick a fork in it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 5, 2022 Share Posted November 5, 2022 1 hour ago, CAPE said: Latest CFS for early-mid Dec. Similar to latest Euro weeklies. This would be a heck of a pattern leading up to the holidays. Snowman disagrees....some random dude on twiter backs him up 2 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 5, 2022 Author Share Posted November 5, 2022 41 minutes ago, IronTy said: GFS done gone bowling. Is that a noreaster? I've heard tell about those sort of storms from the old timers but haven't experienced one in recent years. JB also just posted about the Dec 8-15 period. Might as well stick a fork in it. It's trying to involve a tropical wave (which it moves into the Gulf) with the front, way later than the other models. Verbatim it's a miss here and snow for the coast of NE lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 5, 2022 Share Posted November 5, 2022 1 hour ago, CAPE said: Latest CFS for early-mid Dec. Similar to latest Euro weeklies. This would be a heck of a pattern leading up to the holidays. That’s the timing when we could take advantage of a good pattern with climo becoming supportive of snow events. Dry would always be a risk with that look in a Niña, but need some cold air in December to have any chance. Fingers crossed. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 5, 2022 Share Posted November 5, 2022 2 hours ago, CAPE said: Latest CFS for early-mid Dec. Similar to latest Euro weeklies. This would be a heck of a pattern leading up to the holidays. So you’re calling for a 12/19/09 redux? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 5, 2022 Author Share Posted November 5, 2022 15 minutes ago, nj2va said: So you’re calling for a 12/19/09 redux? Nina 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 5, 2022 Share Posted November 5, 2022 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: Nina I’m guessing JB is going with a 89-90/95-96 blend as a forecast? December 89 and Jan-Feb 96? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted November 5, 2022 Share Posted November 5, 2022 59 minutes ago, nj2va said: So you’re calling for a 12/19/09 redux? Yeeesss!!! 29". Bring it on! All melted by Xmas, of course. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted November 5, 2022 Share Posted November 5, 2022 On 10/24/2022 at 8:02 PM, leesburg 04 said: When do we hit 80 again? On 10/25/2022 at 8:14 AM, IUsedToHateCold said: First week of November Today. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 5, 2022 Author Share Posted November 5, 2022 End of the 12z EPS run has the beginnings of the pattern being advertised on the much of the extended guidance heading into Dec. Building heights into Greenland, lower heights (TPV lobes) underneath, -EPO/neutral PNA. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 5, 2022 Share Posted November 5, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted November 6, 2022 Share Posted November 6, 2022 2 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Since 2015? Is that dude like 19yo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted November 6, 2022 Share Posted November 6, 2022 Late week much needed rain event potential from coastal low. WB 0Z EURO and GFS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 6, 2022 Author Share Posted November 6, 2022 Models are in fairly good agreement that the trough interacts with that low moving westward towards Florida. CMC turns it NE quicker and keeps most of the action off the coast. Someone should bump the tropical thread. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 6, 2022 Author Share Posted November 6, 2022 Latest GEFS Extended for the first week in December. Inside of a month now. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted November 6, 2022 Share Posted November 6, 2022 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: Latest GEFS Extended for the first week in December. Inside of a month now. Wow, that’s a pretty good look. Hope it gets close to verifying. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 6, 2022 Author Share Posted November 6, 2022 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: Wow, that’s a pretty good look. Hope it gets close to verifying. Seeing enough on the extended guidance over the past week or so that this sort of progression would seem plausible. If these tools have any skill at all, they should be able to sniff out the general h5 look 3-4 weeks out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 6, 2022 Share Posted November 6, 2022 13 hours ago, IronTy said: Since 2015? Is that dude like 19yo? Nah he’s a PhD climate scientist 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 6, 2022 Share Posted November 6, 2022 Talk about a pattern change. 6z gfs goes from this torch to not hitting 50F after next Saturday morning through the end of the run. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted November 6, 2022 Share Posted November 6, 2022 13 hours ago, IronTy said: Since 2015? Is that dude like 19yo? Probably a data issue. Either they have only been doing 8-14 day outlooks since 2015, or they've only been gridding them in a way to make calculations since then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted November 6, 2022 Share Posted November 6, 2022 8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Talk about a pattern change. 6z gfs goes from this torch to not hitting 50F after next Saturday morning through the end of the run. 0z GFS does the same thing but even has some snow thrown in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted November 6, 2022 Share Posted November 6, 2022 49 minutes ago, mappy said: Nah he’s a PhD climate scientist Ah good, at least we're talking about the legendary winter of 2019 as an analog. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 6, 2022 Share Posted November 6, 2022 Just now, IronTy said: Ah good, at least we're talking about the legendary winter of 2019 as an analog. It’s gonna be a crap winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted November 6, 2022 Share Posted November 6, 2022 9 minutes ago, mappy said: It’s gonna be a crap winter. Only in Alaska, according to that PhD guy. The 8-14 shows non-stop storms and rumors of storms. The best since 2019. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted November 6, 2022 Share Posted November 6, 2022 6 hours ago, Weather Will said: Late week much needed rain event potential from coastal low. WB 0Z EURO and GFS. 3 hours ago, CAPE said: Models are in fairly good agreement that the trough interacts with that low moving westward towards Florida. CMC turns it NE quicker and keeps most of the action off the coast. Someone should bump the tropical thread. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted November 6, 2022 Share Posted November 6, 2022 44 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Friend of Barnabas Collins?? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 7, 2022 Author Share Posted November 7, 2022 Could this be the first 'period of interest' for something wintry? Climo is hostile so a longshot for the lowlands, but a pretty interesting look as advertised. Amplified longwave pattern, anomalous cold already in place for much of the US, with more NS energy dropping in and an eastbound southern disturbance in the central US. GFS op has been giving some digital snow around the 18th in recent runs. Something to keep an eye on mostly for the western highlands. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 WB 0Z ensemble runs in good agreement for rain event coming in later Friday. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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