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Fall 2022 Medium-Long Range Discussion


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6 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I'm just happy that, at this point in autumn, we're actually somewhat near climo and aren't torching into the 80s each day.

Been a great fall. Leaves amazing, good chilly nights, and refreshingly nice days. Best I can remember for years. We need the rain, but I am so happy to see the entire cycle of the leaves on the trees without a windy rainstorm sweeping them quickly away.

 

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4 hours ago, midatlanticweather said:

Been a great fall. Leaves amazing, good chilly nights, and refreshingly nice days. Best I can remember for years. We need the rain, but I am so happy to see the entire cycle of the leaves on the trees without a windy rainstorm sweeping them quickly away.

 

Good point about not having much rain since we started to peak. It’s been a wonderful fall/peeping season so far!

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Much of the extended guidance is suggesting a developing -NAO towards the end of November. Fwiw ofc. Would also need some changes in the EPAC wrt the Nina dominant ridge strength/position to get us to a more favorable pattern. 

Extended GEFS for shits and giggles..

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_141.png

 

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3 hours ago, Chris78 said:

That = awesome weather for November.

Perfect timing in my opinion. Flip back to colder as we head into December. 

That's the general idea. I wouldn't be surprised if Dec ends up pretty decent in the high latitudes on the Atlantic side, but getting the Pacific to simultaneously cooperate is a struggle. Default with a Nina. The pattern progression might go somewhat like last winter, where we ended up with something workable for early January.

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3 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

yeah, what's up with that. My wife had one crawling on her and I found one dug in on my on my side. Feels late for that kind of activity...

found 2 on the dogs last week. thankfully they are up on their meds, so the ticks were just on the outside, but noticeably late in the year to still be finding them on the dogs

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Btw this is the correct thread for discussion about how the longwave pattern may unfold over the next month. If you want speculation/forecasts about the character of winter as a whole, or never-ending 'opinions' from the daily post limited member from another sub, the 5 month old winter thread is where you should be.

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