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Fall 2022 Medium-Long Range Discussion


CAPE
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35 minutes ago, mattie g said:

I don't know why anyone would get worked up over a 10+day general outlook and if it flips.

Not sure why anyone pays any attention to any op run 10 days out. By nature they are prone to completely different outcomes from run to run. I rarely if ever give consideration to a LR op run, or use them in a post, unless its in context to the ensemble solutions.

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35 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Not sure why anyone pays any attention to any op run 10 days out. By nature they are prone to completely different outcomes from run to run. I rarely if ever give consideration to a LR op run, or use them in a post, unless its in context to the ensemble solutions.

Imagination is a powerful thing...lol

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1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Not sure why anyone pays any attention to any op run 10 days out. By nature they are prone to completely different outcomes from run to run. I rarely if ever give consideration to a LR op run, or use them in a post, unless its in context to the ensemble solutions.

Well, when looking for specifics, NO, but pattern evolution can start showing days before the long range and you can start to look for consistency. GFS, though, can become completely inconsistent in one run! LOL! I know all models can. But it is just a tool. 

 

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2 hours ago, mattie g said:

I don't know why anyone would get worked up over a 10+day general outlook and if it flips.

This is a winter board. We tolerate 10 months to live for 2. Every year, we see winter slip away slowly. Then, when things get close, folks get jumpy if it looks the every diminishing window for snow looks to be a dud. It's an annual ritual.

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26 minutes ago, dallen7908 said:

... did you also observe a complete flip in the ensemble means of surface temperature for days 10-15?  That would be a more interesting ... and probably still wouldn't be too surprising. 

The means don't have the tendency to do a 'complete flip' like the higher res op runs can within a couple runs. Relying on the lower resolution ensembles at range over a series of cycles reduces uncertainty about the general outcome for a given future window, and that's basically the point. 

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I will stop posting this guy until we see if what he says holds any water. Here was his post today. I have no idea if this is true. The challenge, of course, is did we flip because of what he has identified or was it just luck. I saw the comments that his upper air charts were not really at the levels to be doing PV predictions. 

A re-curvature is known to do a disruption, so maybe that is nothing surprising really. Also, snow where? Snow in the east is what he has been focusing on.. but how far east? Inland NE would really be the only place I would see snow being possible before Thanksgiving except maybe some mountain love. Oh well. 

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15 hours ago, CAPE said:

More work needed.. just a little work, and with some luck, Dec might resemble that silly analog composite posted right there.

I have no idea what would be required for that 500mb look to come to fruition, but goddamn is that tasty.

In the end, only one of those winters was decent, but whatever. I just figure that no two seasons will work out exactly the same, though I'm sure some of our resident savants will remember how lucky or unlucky we were in those three years.

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11 minutes ago, mattie g said:

I have no idea what would be required for that 500mb look to come to fruition, but goddamn is that tasty.

In the end, only one of those winters was decent, but whatever. I just figure that no two seasons will work out exactly the same, though I'm sure some of our resident savants will remember how lucky or unlucky we were in those three years.

Sure that is a tasty look, but probably pretty unlikely given where we are currently with the key indices. Just a little more work here and a bit more there and then if this happens..

I find the twitter dweeb speculative posts about 'possible' winter outcomes completely boring anymore.

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44 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Sure that is a tasty look, but probably pretty unlikely given where we are currently with the key indices. Just a little more work here and a bit more there and then if this happens..

I find the twitter dweeb speculative posts about 'possible' winter outcomes completely boring anymore.

That's fair, but I'm always curious about the MJO since it seems that it really helps to drive a lot of what happens downstream.

I've always been honest about my relative lack of weather knowledge compared to many folks on here, so no one should ever take my non-obs, weather-related posts too terribly seriously. :lol:

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9 minutes ago, mattie g said:

That's fair, but I'm always curious about the MJO since it seems that it really helps to drive a lot of what happens downstream.

I've always been honest about my relative lack of weather knowledge compared to many folks on here, so no one should ever take my non-obs, weather-related posts too terribly seriously. :lol:

I watch the MJO, ONI, etc, and follow the LR ensembles to see how the longwave pattern may progress. Speculating on what h5 will look like 8 weeks down the road is out of my lane, and is pretty much a crapshoot for those who consider themselves more skilled. I enjoy the weather we get in Fall/early winter regardless, outside of these stagnant damp/dreary periods. Love being outside with no bugs and chilly temps.

 

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2 hours ago, Terpeast said:

If this pans out and stretches to late Nov, my +2 forecast for mid atlantic might get close to verifying.

Then I go cold for Dec-Jan…

Hope so! I don’t mind a warm November (assuming it flips in mid-December), but I am mildly annoyed how late the first freeze will probably be now.

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3 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Hope so! I don’t mind a warm November (assuming it flips in mid-December), but I am mildly annoyed how late the first freeze will probably be now.

Yes it hurts. My prediction for DCA to freeze in December might come in accurate and I might have nailed it almost entirely if RIC and BWI had just been a couple of degrees colder last week. 

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