nj2va Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 22 minutes ago, CAPE said: A long way off and we know the op runs are not very useful for any sort of detail, but ya gotta like the h5 looks we are seeing on the means the last several runs. if it ends up being close to real, some early Dec frozen is on the table. Just not on the 10th ofc. We know the dangers of tracking long range snow on OPs but at least the ensemble looks upstairs are conducive to frozen looks. Best for everyone to be prepared for the OPs to show every possible outcome for now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 It is pretty nice to see ens of all 3 globals with a robust block that appears stable. One constant moving forward is the supply of 50/50 lows. Even through the brief warm up coming we still see this feature. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 29 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Really good look on ensembles continues after the first few days of December. Pretty darn good agreement with GEFS and EPS. Reposting this in here 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 23, 2022 Author Share Posted November 23, 2022 9 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Could you imagine the complaining about getting fringed if the 6z was right Too much of a good thing. Ridge bridge with TPV lobes shedding off underneath and dropping south can act like a wrecking ball, crushing eastbound shortwaves taking the southern route. If this pattern is legit, we are going to see all sorts of wild outcomes on the op runs over the next week. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 Y’all hitting the Turkey a little early? So much hopium. The jaded heart crew can’t hear the sound of the bell for snow. Make them hear it again. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 23, 2022 Author Share Posted November 23, 2022 Just for the hell of it- since everyone is in a cheery mood on Turkey-day eve, not working/ at work pretending to work. 18 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Just for the hell of it- since everyone is in a cheery mood on Turkey-day eve, not working/ at work pretending to work. Sir, those are NSFW lol 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 Happy to see the optimism. Be Thankful… I predict we will know if it will snow in December by January 1, 2023. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 34 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Happy to see the optimism. Be Thankful… I predict we will know if it will snow in December by January 1, 2023. Yes. There's nothing worse than seeing zonal flow and Pacific puke for weeks on end as we enter December and you realize in the back of your head "well, there's always next year". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 2 hours ago, CAPE said: Yep an uncomplicated path for a frozen event, possibly for much of the region. Given the looks, southern VA into NC might be in the game. We may be seeing some fringed posts lol. You called? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, WesternFringe said: You called? Usually we follow your posts for good news lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 3 hours ago, H2O said: Y’all hitting the Turkey a little early? So much hopium. The jaded heart crew can’t hear the sound of the bell for snow. Make them hear it again. As a fledgling member of the jaded heart crew...I feel like I can hear a tiny bell...a La Campanella if you will (if ya don't get the reference, I encourage ya to YouTube it ), however it's not close enough know whether it's a real one or just another made out of imitation copper with a paper clip inside like the "bells" the past 6-7 years. We shall see what rings true only the day before, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobC Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 3 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: Yes. There's nothing worse than seeing zonal flow and Pacific puke for weeks on end as we enter December and you realize in the back of your head "well, there's always next year". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 5 hours ago, CAPE said: Too much of a good thing. Ridge bridge with TPV lobes shedding off underneath and dropping south can act like a wrecking ball, crushing eastbound shortwaves taking the southern route. If this pattern is legit, we are going to see all sorts of wild outcomes on the op runs over the next week. Legit concern. Seems in recent Nina's we are always at the mercy of the shred factory. Good post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 5 hours ago, CAPE said: Too much of a good thing. Ridge bridge with TPV lobes shedding off underneath and dropping south can act like a wrecking ball, crushing eastbound shortwaves taking the southern route. If this pattern is legit, we are going to see all sorts of wild outcomes on the op runs over the next week. 12z GEFS presenting your overrunning/flat wave scenario for the post 12/6 period. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 23, 2022 Author Share Posted November 23, 2022 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: 12z GEFS presenting your overrunning/flat wave scenario for the post 12/6 period. Third run in a row hinting, but this is a bit more robust. We track until it morphs lol. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 23, 2022 Author Share Posted November 23, 2022 12z EPS keeps the vortex around Siberia stronger/more consolidated, so not quite as cold a look. Not earth shattering but something to keep an eye on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 23, 2022 Author Share Posted November 23, 2022 2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Legit concern. Seems in recent Nina's we are always at the mercy of the shred factory. Good post. There are always legit concerns of one sort or another when it comes to getting snow in these parts, regardless of ENSO state. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 23, 2022 Author Share Posted November 23, 2022 48 minutes ago, CAPE said: 12z EPS keeps the vortex around Siberia stronger/more consolidated, so not quite as cold a look. Not earth shattering but something to keep an eye on. GEFS + GEPS > EPS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 Did somebody yell fire in this here crowded theater? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 5 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Did somebody yell fire in this here crowded theater? Only if anyone bought what the GEFS and CFS are selling wholesale. Which is a fools errand, as all of us know. I am optimistic about our chances for a significant cold period and a winter storm, but I'm nowhere near sold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 23, 2022 Author Share Posted November 23, 2022 7 minutes ago, IUsedToHateCold said: Only if anyone bought what the GEFS and CFS are selling wholesale. Which is a fools errand, as all of us know. I am optimistic about our chances for a significant cold period and a winter storm, but I'm nowhere near sold. I really would like to complete this sale, and I can clearly see that you want to buy the product. Tell me how we can get this deal done today! 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: I really would like to complete this sale, and I can clearly see that you want to buy the product. Tell me how we can get this deal done today! Drop the price to a few universes below normal and we've got a deal!! 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 7 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Drop the price to a few universes below normal and we've got a deal!! Can you throw in a -PNA for free? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 8 minutes ago, yoda said: Can you throw in a -PNA for free? 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 I would remind everyone that it was the EURO/EPS that had a coastal storm for this Friday that fizzled out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 23, 2022 Author Share Posted November 23, 2022 5 minutes ago, Weather Will said: I would remind everyone that it was the EURO/EPS that had a coastal storm for this Friday that fizzled out. Alright. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: Alright. We both know that the model with the least cold and snow usually wins out around here, but there is cold air lurking in Canada this year so at least we are in the ball game…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said: Did somebody yell fire in this here crowded theater? “CONCERN” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 26 minutes ago, Weather Will said: I would remind everyone that it was the EURO/EPS that had a coastal storm for this Friday that fizzled out. EPS is dead to me. Dead Jim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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