CAPE Posted November 22, 2022 Author Share Posted November 22, 2022 So much optimism about the pattern progression. Where are the debs speculating about what could go wrong? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 22, 2022 Author Share Posted November 22, 2022 I know of one who won't be interjecting. 1 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: I know of one who won't be interjecting. -PNA? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: I know of one who won't be interjecting. The guy in the parallel universe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 22, 2022 Author Share Posted November 22, 2022 This is pretty hot. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 22, 2022 Author Share Posted November 22, 2022 Just now, yoda said: -PNA? Just now, Scraff said: The guy in the parallel universe? Well maybe 2 then. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 5 minutes ago, CAPE said: So much optimism about the pattern progression. Where are the debs speculating about what could go wrong? I’ll start. I’m sure this isn’t the first time a good pattern showed on the models early winter and then fell apart when it was time for to to come to fruition. Have we seen similar mirages in Nov-Dec of recent winters? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 3 minutes ago, Scraff said: The guy in the parallel universe? @leesburg 04? 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 22, 2022 Author Share Posted November 22, 2022 Just now, Terpeast said: I’ll start. I’m sure this isn’t the first time a good pattern showed on the models early winter and then fell apart when it was time for to to come to fruition. Have we seen similar mirages in Nov-Dec of recent winters? Ofc we have. And we know it is highly unlikely we see anything close to the 'ideal pattern' in a Nina. But we can dream. And the guidance teasing us with this is kinda fun as we head into Met winter. Luckily we can score in a flawed set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 3 minutes ago, Terpeast said: I’ll start. I’m sure this isn’t the first time a good pattern showed on the models early winter and then fell apart when it was time for to to come to fruition. Have we seen similar mirages in Nov-Dec of recent winters? Last year we started getting teased in late Nov/early Dec and the can got kicked into early January. I wouldn’t be surprised in the least if the can gets kicked 4-7 days here or maybe more. This really good pattern has only been teased for ~2 days so far also, so not exactly a lock yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 22, 2022 Author Share Posted November 22, 2022 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Last year we started getting teased in late Nov/early Dec and the can got kicked into early January. I wouldn’t be surprised in the least if the can gets kicked 4-7 days here or maybe more. This really good pattern has only been teased for ~2 days so far also, so not exactly a lock yet. Guidance has been waffling a bit from run to run, but seems to be moving towards a pretty favorable look. Pac jet configuration and MJO progression are no doubt big factors, along with default Nina tendencies. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 17 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: @leesburg 04? I'll have you know i live in a perpendicular universe thank you very much 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 1 hour ago, CAPE said: This is pretty hot. Actually should be pretty Cold ❄️ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 57 minutes ago, CAPE said: Ofc we have. And we know it is highly unlikely we see anything close to the 'ideal pattern' in a Nina. But we can dream. And the guidance teasing us with this is kinda fun as we head into Met winter. Luckily we can score in a flawed set up. There is some sort of weird decadal ao/nao cycle. I don't understand it other than it's obvious in the rear view. We've had a run of dog turd ao/nao years lately. Fluked out in 13-15 stretch. Atypical there. Last winter wasn't hostile. Almost seemed like blocking was making a comeback. Makes you wonder if this year is part of the eventual reversion. If it is then a winter with patterns like 95-96 isn't crazy talk. Snow beats to a different drum and that was a monster year. A redux there is def crazy talk haha 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 22, 2022 Author Share Posted November 22, 2022 14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: There is some sort of weird decadal ao/nao cycle. I don't understand it other than it's obvious in the rear view. We've had a run of dog turd ao/nao years lately. Fluked out in 13-15 stretch. Atypical there. Last winter wasn't hostile. Almost seemed like blocking was making a comeback. Makes you wonder if this year is part of the eventual reversion. If it is then a winter with patterns like 95-96 isn't crazy talk. Snow beats to a different drum and that was a monster year. A redux there is def crazy talk haha We are due for a persistently blocky winter. Why not in a Nina to boot? Eff the QBO and Strat water vapor BS lol. Nebulous shit. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 1 hour ago, CAPE said: This is pretty hot. Did the Control take a visit to negative land or something lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 14 minutes ago, CAPE said: We are due for a persistently blocky winter. Why not in a Nina to boot? Eff the QBO and Strat water vapor BS lol. Nebulous shit. if we do end up getting a Modoki Nino, which seems more likely, then there would be lots of blocking, especially late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 22, 2022 Author Share Posted November 22, 2022 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: if we do end up getting a Modoki Nino, which seems more likely, then there would be lots of blocking, especially late Yeah, but that's a year away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 55 minutes ago, CAPE said: Yeah, but that's a year away. Once we get finished with the 95-96 redux we can immediately jump into disco about the incoming 09-10 redux. Brooklyn is just letting us know that 09-10 is knocking at the door again real soon 9 2 7 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 6 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: if we do end up getting a Modoki Nino, which seems more likely, then there would be lots of blocking, especially late I'd like to see this for the better snow odds obviously...but also to see if even this setup that's worked well in the past can still work today, lol (been so long I take nothing for granted!) Not saying it can't or won't...but I'll keep expectations in check for now. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 23, 2022 Author Share Posted November 23, 2022 The 0z GFS snows on us on the 7th with a wave tracking to our south and cold air pressing. Not out of the question given the advertised h5 look on the ens mean. 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 13 hours ago, CAPE said: I know of one who won't be interjecting. you're welcome. you owe me a snow free 12/10 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 3 hours ago, CAPE said: The 0z GFS snows on us on the 7th with a wave tracking to our south and cold air pressing. Not out of the question given the advertised h5 look on the ens mean. That’s quite the stout 1044 HP on the 0z OP, too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 3 hours ago, CAPE said: The 0z GFS snows on us on the 7th with a wave tracking to our south and cold air pressing. Not out of the question given the advertised h5 look on the ens mean. GEFS has been consistently showing a decent TN valley overrunning setup in the 5th-7th window. The carving troughs aren't digging deep but are plenty cold. I like the breadth of the cold air. Flat and wide instead of a deep bowl.Gulf is open from what I keep seeing. Overrunning is one of the only ways for our sub to score together in early Dec. Ways out in time but it makes a lot of sense if it starts locking in next week. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 23, 2022 Author Share Posted November 23, 2022 4 minutes ago, nj2va said: That’s quite the stout 1044 HP on the 0z OP, too. A long way off and we know the op runs are not very useful for any sort of detail, but ya gotta like the h5 looks we are seeing on the means the last several runs. if it ends up being close to real, some early Dec frozen is on the table. Just not on the 10th ofc. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 23, 2022 Author Share Posted November 23, 2022 Just now, Bob Chill said: GEFS has been consistently showing a decent TN valley overrunning setup in the 5th-7th window. The carving troughs aren't digging deep but are plenty cold. Gulf is open from what I keep seeing. Overrunning is one of the only ways for our sub to score together in early Dec. Ways out in time but it makes a lot of sense if it starts locking in next week. Yep an uncomplicated path for a frozen event, possibly for much of the region. Given the looks, southern VA into NC might be in the game. We may be seeing some fringed posts lol. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 Just now, CAPE said: Yep an uncomplicated path for a frozen event, possibly for much of the region. Given the looks, southern VA into NC might be in the game. We may be seeing some fringed posts lol. Battle ground patterns with a block like to aim hoses at places for hot streaks. We've won some and lost more. Lol. Gotta have a chance before you can lose tho 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Yep an uncomplicated path for a frozen event, possibly for much of the region. Given the looks, southern VA into NC might be in the game. We may be seeing some fringed posts lol. Hopefully we can score something small when the RELOAD starts to RELAX before we get our annual Xmas torch 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 23, 2022 Author Share Posted November 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Hopefully we can score something small when the RELOAD starts to RELAX before we get our annual Xmas torch GEFSx looks solid right through Xmas. I would expect the next run to look even better given the last few runs of the GEFS. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 15 minutes ago, CAPE said: Yep an uncomplicated path for a frozen event, possibly for much of the region. Given the looks, southern VA into NC might be in the game. We may be seeing some fringed posts lol. Could you imagine the complaining about getting fringed if the 6z was right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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