NorthArlington101 Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 The 12z GFS made a *slight* shift towards a stormier outcome for Black Friday, lol. 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 10 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: The 12z GFS made a *slight* shift towards a stormier outcome for Black Friday, lol. Just a casual 971 mb low... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 To emphasize how subtle differences in the Siberian/Arctic PV could change how the RELAX looks, check the 12z vs 6z GEFS. 12z: farther south in Siberia and less organized. -NAO looks worse actually relative to 6z, but without a pig PV setting up north of AK, we’re actually able to get some BN temps verbatim. 6z: -NAO looking nice with ridging into Greenland and Davis straights, but the PV is stronger and more consolidated, driving a -PNA and floods the conus with PAC air. Given that, I wouldn’t put much stock in anything after the 28th or so. @CoastalWx mentioned this could be due to weak tropical forcing and hence the models bouncing around a lot. Makes sense, but with that PV, it could bounce between torch ahead of a cutter, but then a good cold push behind it with a transient -EPO. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said: The 12z GFS made a *slight* shift towards a stormier outcome for Black Friday, lol. Ha, thought the same thing when I just checked it. It had been in the FROPA crowd but decided to shift back to the CMC/Euro camp. I’m rooting for a deepening low so the mountains cash in on upslope. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 WB 12Z EPS v. 6Z EPS for Friday. Love the active pattern with cold air around…. So much better than last year… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 11 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z EPS v. 6Z EPS for Friday. Love the active pattern with cold air around…. So much better than last year… I didn’t think there was that much cold around even with a perfect track…I’ll have to look again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 7 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I didn’t think there was that much cold around even with a perfect track…I’ll have to look again Probably not east of the mountains. My point is that the models are all over the place outside a few days. Hopefully it will be a December to remember!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 32 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z EPS v. 6Z EPS for Friday. Love the active pattern with cold air around…. So much better than last year… Setup looks somewhat like the Feb. '72 Storm, albeit much colder then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 20, 2022 Author Share Posted November 20, 2022 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: Probably not east of the mountains. My point is that the models are all over the place outside a few days. Hopefully it will be a December to remember!!! It's still November though, and its way too warm for frozen on those maps you posted. It has looked that way for many runs. I guess "cold around" is subjective. It has looked like a possibility of at least some snow for the western highlands on the backside for awhile now, but it's a different world out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 Good summary by LWX for the storm possibility later this week. Model guidance begins to diverge a bit by Friday, but there has been a bit more of a consensus in the 12z cycle, at least in the deterministic runs. The ICON still hangs onto the solution that cuts off a low over TX and tracks northward into the Mid-Atlantic. However, the GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian all have a similar situation where a strong upper trough digs into the central CONUS and moves across the area Friday into Saturday before becoming negatively tilted and lifting up the east coast. At the surface, all three have strong lows nearby, with the GFS being the most bullish by far. There remains a wide variety of solutions within the ensemble guidance however, so that is something to take into account as we monitor the trends in the coming days. At the very least, this is something we need to keep a close eye on. For the time being, it appears this would be more of a heavy rain and/or severe weather threat depending on the track of any potential surface low. Should these solutions verify, we would looking at a decent shot of cold advection on Saturday, along with upslope snow showers along the Allegheny Front and strong wind gusts in the wake of the system. Temperatures will be highly dependent on what pattern ultimately unfolds, with ensemble guidance currently advertising a wide range of possible solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 53 minutes ago, CAPE said: It's still November though, and its way too warm for frozen on those maps you posted. It has looked that way for many runs. I guess "cold around" is subjective. It has looked like a possibility of at least some snow for the western highlands on the backside for awhile now, but it's a different world out there. When you say "Western Highlands". Do you mean far Western MD or the Highlands out here in Carroll County? I'm pretty high here lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 20, 2022 Author Share Posted November 20, 2022 1 minute ago, dailylurker said: When you say "Western Highlands". Do you mean far Western MD or the Highlands out here in Carroll County? I'm pretty high here lol The actual highlands lol. Allegheny front. Legit microclimate. I lived up your way for 10+ years, and it's nice compared to the lowlands and cities, but its a far cry from places like Canaan and Deep Creek. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 Such a dissapointing winter. Wasting cold air again 8 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 I know everyone is moving on from Friday but I'm still hanging on the edge because I'm supposed to have some pretty significant outdoor plans so it's pretty annoying that the GFS has seemed to get rid of that storm entirely, yet the Euro still has plenty of rain. Let's get some consensus lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 1 hour ago, Steve25 said: I know everyone is moving on from Friday but I'm still hanging on the edge because I'm supposed to have some pretty significant outdoor plans so it's pretty annoying that the GFS has seemed to get rid of that storm entirely, yet the Euro still has plenty of rain. Let's get some consensus lol. I see what you mean. Pretty big differences for Friday between the 0z op runs. Should be deadly range for euro and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 21, 2022 Author Share Posted November 21, 2022 Towards the end of the 0z EPS run the vortex near Okhotsk Sea appears to weaken/split, and the Pac pattern shows improvement. Meanwhile a nicely positioned ridge in the NAO domain is depicted. GEFS seems to be heading in the same direction with the h5 pattern. 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 ^straight up RELOADED there! That’s a nice look. Hope that holds more or less. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 1 hour ago, BristowWx said: I see what you mean. Pretty big differences for Friday between the 0z op runs. Should be deadly range for euro and GFS. GFS has the LP in Northern Texas on Saturday afternoon while Euro has it near Binghamton. Lol Interestingly enough, the CMC moved to the GFS solution that cuts off the trough over the central US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 24 minutes ago, nj2va said: GFS has the LP in Northern Texas on Saturday afternoon while Euro has it near Binghamton. Lol Interestingly enough, the CMC moved to the GFS solution that cuts off the trough over the central US. ICON looks like the Euro..sort of. None of it is all that exciting if its not frozen. Upslope is money however so I can root for that even if I can't personally enjoy it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 5 hours ago, nj2va said: GFS has the LP in Northern Texas on Saturday afternoon while Euro has it near Binghamton. Lol Interestingly enough, the CMC moved to the GFS solution that cuts off the trough over the central US. If its not gonna be cold enough for snow I'd rather it be dry. No point in washing away all the snow Wisp has made . I was all excited to try out my new snow tires but it doesn't look like I'll need them for this trip. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 6 hours ago, WxUSAF said: ^straight up RELOADED there! That’s a nice look. Hope that holds more or less. If the early Dec deep western trough rolls quick like what's been happening all fall, Dec will keep a lot of people glued to screens every 6 hours . And if a stable block sets up then 10x as many will be glued... 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 1 hour ago, mdhokie said: If its not gonna be cold enough for snow I'd rather it be dry. No point in washing away all the snow Wisp has made . I was all excited to try out my new snow tires but it doesn't look like I'll need them for this trip. The Euro just went towards the CMC (and previously the GFS) idea of deepening the trough and closing it off over west TX. Seems like anything is on the table this weekend but agree, don’t want to see a washout especially in the mountains. If we’re going to get a storm (and a marginal air mass), would prefer a wound up bomb so at least we get upslope on the backside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 12z gefs with a workable PAC now late in the run. Pretty sizable shift toward CAPE's eps post earlier. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 18 minutes ago, Afewuniverses said: Actually the 12z gefs doesn't have a workable pacific at all. OP run has a 570dm -EPO into Alaska, which is different from the last 4 runs. (maybe that's what you're referring to). GEFS has strong -PNA redeveloping at 384hr. It will probably trend toward a medium, but I wouldn't take that Pacific. You believe this is a hostile pac? We'd of killed for this jet structure multiple times in recent years. It's not perfect and it never is but the pac jet as depicted is slow/split/dirty with a cold air factory in Western Canada. I find that very workable 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 Just now, Afewuniverses said: It's a +170dm -PNA, developing-redeveloping (384hr). We aren't going to get snow in that. Hi Chuck 7 1 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 He’s been here on the forum “23 hours” 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 Mom....Chuck is creating alternate universes again 3 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 8 hours ago, nj2va said: GFS has the LP in Northern Texas on Saturday afternoon while Euro has it near Binghamton. Lol Interestingly enough, the CMC moved to the GFS solution that cuts off the trough over the central US. GFS has been King during Ninas, not surprised 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 2 hours ago, Bob Chill said: If the early Dec deep western trough rolls quick like what's been happening all fall, Dec will keep a lot of people glued to screens every 6 hours . And if a stable block sets up then 10x as many will be glued... 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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