Fall 2022 Medium-Long Range Discussion

[H2O]

9 minutes ago, mappy said:

I already thanked him for going out of town so it would snow

Pattern can get nice for early/middle dec, relax a little right before Xmas and then slam for the holidays.  Basically around any vacationing our dear leader might do.  I say this upon risk of twitter lasting longer than my account here cause Randy will Elon Musk me.  

[mappy]

2 minutes ago, H2O said:

Pattern can get nice for early/middle dec, relax a little right before Xmas and then slam for the holidays.  Basically around any vacationing our dear leader might do.  I say this upon risk of twitter lasting longer than my account here cause Randy will Elon Musk me.  

can it not snow the weekend of the 10th though? really dont want to miss another dance recital. 

[IronTy]

I'll be in Vegas at the Mr. Olympia from Dec 15th thru the 20th so I'm also doing my part to make sure it snows then too.  

[mappy]

33 minutes ago, IronTy said:

I'll be in Vegas at the Mr. Olympia from Dec 15th thru the 20th so I'm also doing my part to make sure it snows then too.  

snow on 12/19 would be fabulous! thank you for your service. 

[Daniel Boone]

2 hours ago, mappy said:

the best gif

Hey look, " The false Popett"!

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 hour ago, H2O said:

Pattern can get nice for early/middle dec, relax a little right before Xmas and then slam for the holidays.  Basically around any vacationing our dear leader might do.  I say this upon risk of twitter lasting longer than my account here cause Randy will Elon Musk me.  

Elon Musk...a new verb!

 

1 hour ago, mappy said:

can it not snow the weekend of the 10th though? really dont want to miss another dance recital. 

Wait...we can put in orders now for when we want snow?  (Maybe only admins and monitors can do that!! )

[ravensrule]

7 hours ago, stormtracker said:

Nothing can happen until December 16.   I'll be in SC for Thanksgiving, so this isn't happening.  Then Thailand for 3 weeks until the 16th.  I'm sorry guys.  

Make sure not to Bangkok. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

54 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

Make sure not to Bangkok. 

It makes a hard man humble!! 

[WxUSAF]

Our slim odds of anything frozen from the Black Friday storm look slimmer now, so let’s check in on the RELAX and RELOAD. 
 

Going into the beginning of December, the most robust feature on the ensembles is broad ridging over Europe, Scandinavia, the eastern Arctic Ocean, and extending into Greenland. This -NAO has been pretty stable on the ensembles in the D10-15 period with most of the variation on how far west it extends (e.g. into Baffin Island or Hudson Bay). 
 

The other robust feature is the one I mentioned in my last long post: the trop PV over eastern Siberia. All the ensembles have it, but how it plays with the other trop PV closer to the pole seems unclear. What I was hoping for, the Siberian PV to move east to Kamchatka and force the -EPO doesn’t seem to want to happen. The interaction of the 2 PVs keeps the NPac ridge flat. 

But there are subtle differences between the 3 that change the pattern over the CONUS and maybe what comes after for the RELOAD. Start with the worst: GEPS.

GEPS is Nina-tastic. Cold western Canada, -NAO, and SE ridge is very reminiscent of last December and is a classic Nina look. Not what we want to see. 
 

GEFS is somewhat intermediary, but also not a look I love. It seems to want to merge the two PVs, maybe toward AK, which is a torchy pattern for us. Don’t be deceived by the blue over us. That’s a little induced trough below the NAO ridge. Extended GEFS show it getting worse after this but then with a somewhat remarkable reversal to a workable pattern around D25-30. Maybe a reflection of tropical forcing? Dunno. 

EPS is the best look by far even though it’s not dramatically different than the above 2. It weakens the PV over the pole and also the Siberian PV. This weakens the WPO ridge but also the -PNA. The shorter wavelengths put the ridge over the SW CONUS. With the -NAO, that’s a pattern that would be workable with minimal changes, even in early December. 

This all has been pretty changeable so EPS could be trash and the GEFS looking nice by tomorrow, but this is where we are for now. Think we do relax for the first week of December at least, but TBD if it’s just seasonable (maybe even leaning a little BN) or a borderline torch. Seems like the PV strength and interactions will drive this. Then hopefully the MJO progression leads to another -EPO period while the -NAO is still kicking. 

[CAPE]

^excellent post.

 

[Solution Man]

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Our slim odds of anything frozen from the Black Friday storm look slimmer now, so let’s check in on the RELAX and RELOAD. 
 

Going into the beginning of December, the most robust feature on the ensembles is broad ridging over Europe, Scandinavia, the eastern Arctic Ocean, and extending into Greenland. This -NAO has been pretty stable on the ensembles in the D10-15 period with most of the variation on how far west it extends (e.g. into Baffin Island or Hudson Bay). 
 

The other robust feature is the one I mentioned in my last long post: the trop PV over eastern Siberia. All the ensembles have it, but how it plays with the other trop PV closer to the pole seems unclear. What I was hoping for, the Siberian PV to move east to Kamchatka and force the -EPO doesn’t seem to want to happen. The interaction of the 2 PVs keeps the NPac ridge flat. 

But there are subtle differences between the 3 that change the pattern over the CONUS and maybe what comes after for the RELOAD. Start with the worst: GEPS.

GEPS is Nina-tastic. Cold western Canada, -NAO, and SE ridge is very reminiscent of last December and is a classic Nina look. Not what we want to see. 
 

GEFS is somewhat intermediary, but also not a look I love. It seems to want to merge the two PVs, maybe toward AK, which is a torchy pattern for us. Don’t be deceived by the blue over us. That’s a little induced trough below the NAO ridge. Extended GEFS show it getting worse after this but then with a somewhat remarkable reversal to a workable pattern around D25-30. Maybe a reflection of tropical forcing? Dunno. 

EPS is the best look by far even though it’s not dramatically different than the above 2. It weakens the PV over the pole and also the Siberian PV. This weakens the WPO ridge but also the -PNA. The shorter wavelengths put the ridge over the SW CONUS. With the -NAO, that’s a pattern that would be workable with minimal changes, even in early December. 

This all has been pretty changeable so EPS could be trash and the GEFS looking nice by tomorrow, but this is where we are for now. Think we do relax for the first week of December at least, but TBD if it’s just seasonable (maybe even leaning a little BN) or a borderline torch. Seems like the PV strength and interactions will drive this. Then hopefully the MJO progression leads to another -EPO period while the -NAO is still kicking. 

Thank you 

[Bob Chill]

@WxUSAF killer post.. The abrupt flip to sustained crisp continental air early/mid Oct caught my attention. I spent most of Oct in VA and it got below freezing 3 nights in a row mid month and scattered randos after. Every time I looked at d15 epa/gefs ens,  I kept thinking "if this is an early peek into early winter jet highways, we're going to like this winter.

 

Now as we cruised thru Nov with little variance, it's time to let it go and see what comes back. This has been a very long cycle by fall standards. So persistent it does call up my intuition in a good way. Hostile lack of blocking seems unlikely this year. My gut says winter wx chances will be served by both the npac ridge at times with fast flow and dirty blocked flow stsrting to show in the mix after mid Dec. Just a gut hunch.  We'll see. Dec has a habit of rewriting everything so hopefully we don't watch the a Hindenburg redux

 

To clarify "like" for everyone, I only mean winter will have the feel more often than not. Snow in the MA is too volatile to predict. We can be an icebox and suck door to door and warm 10 out of 12 weeks and hit climo snow anyway. Not a set of stats I like to guess with anymore. My guess is we'll have enough chances to get soundly on the board. Whether people feel good or not at the end is very subjective lol

[Kmlwx]

4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

@WxUSAF killer post.. The abrupt flip to sustained crisp continental air early/mid Oct caught my attention. I spent most of Oct in VA and it got below freezing 3 nights in a row mid month and scattered randos after. Every time I looked at d15 epa/gefs ens,  I kept thinking "if this is an early peek into early winter jet highways, we're going to like this winter.

 

Now as we cruised thru Nov with little variance, it's time to let it go and see what comes back. This has been a very long cycle by fall standards. So persistent it does call up my intuition in a good way. Hostile lack of blocking seems unlikely this year. My gut says winter wx chances will be served by both the npac ridge at times with fast flow and dirty blocked flow stsrting to show in the mix after mid Dec. Just a gut hunch.  We'll see. Dec has a habit of rewriting everything so hopefully we don't watch the a Hindenburg redux

 

To clarify "like" for everyone, I only mean winter will have the feel more often than not. Snow in the MA is too volatile to predict. We can be an icebox and suck door to door and warm 10 out of 12 weeks and hit climo snow anyway. Not a set of stats I like to guess with anymore. My guess is we'll have enough chances to get soundly on the board. Whether people feel good or not at the end is very subjective lol

The true Confucius of the Mid-Atlantic. Your posts are always *chefs kiss* 

[Bob Chill]

Too add to my last post, I typically check cpc upper air analogs 1-2 times a week just for reference. For the last few weeks, the analogs have been heavyweight 1950s&60s. Going off memory only, that's not common. Plenty of the analogs are the years we like from those decades but there were some real turds in the 50s. Lol. Don't need a decadal redux there...

[CAPE]

I just took a look at the latest MJO forecast plots heading into Dec, and most guidance has the forcing progressing into phase 7. The Euro ensemble dissipates it there, and appears headed for reemergence back towards the MC. Euro ext keeps it in phase 7(does a loop into and out of COD), GEFS and GEFSX keep it at a decent amplitude and heading towards phase 8. Other guidance is mixed but tendency is into phase 7 then COD. Ideally we want the forcing to progress into Ph 8, 1 to help offset the Nina background state and encourage reshuffling of the Pacific pattern to something more serviceable, with the Pac ridge shifted eastward/poleward over AK.

[aldie 22]

I'm calling it now...it will be in the low 70s first week of December before the reload 

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

I'm calling it now...it will be in the low 70s first week of December before the reload 

Imagine if the reload never comes. 

[aldie 22]

5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Imagine if the reload never comes. 

PSU is that you?

[WxUSAF]

15 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Imagine if the reload never comes. 

Yesterdays GEFS extended 

[CAPE]

19 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Yesterdays GEFS extended 

Latest Euro weeklies were meh too. CFS has an impressive -EPO towards the end of Dec. Patience. 

Wonder if DT is still woofing about early Dec. He was basing that on the GEFSX lol.

[Ralph Wiggum]

4 hours ago, CAPE said:

I just took a look at the latest MJO forecast plots heading into Dec, and most guidance has the forcing progressing into phase 7. The Euro ensemble dissipates it there, and appears headed for reemergence back towards the MC. Euro ext keeps it in phase 7(does a loop into and out of COD), GEFS and GEFSX keep it at a decent amplitude and heading towards phase 8. Other guidance is mixed but tendency is into phase 7 then COD. Ideally we want the forcing to progress into Ph 8, 1 to help offset the Nina background state and encourage reshuffling of the Pacific pattern to something more serviceable, with the Pac ridge shifted eastward/poleward over AK.

Not a whole lot suggesting that Pac ridge progresses eastward or poleward. It seems in the last 10 years when that feature has flexed in Nov-Dec that it has real staying power. All tied to the MJO and we know how getting a favorable MJO progression in recent years has been like pulling teeth. 

[WxUSAF]

24 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Latest Euro weeklies were meh too. CFS has an impressive -EPO towards the end of Dec. Patience. 

Wonder if DT is still woofing about early Dec. He was basing that on the GEFSX lol.

I liked last winter having a January that felt like January. As long as Xmas week isn’t a flamethrower torch, I can gut through another disappointing December. But I’m cautiously hopeful it has some wintry appeal.

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Not a whole lot suggesting that Pac ridge progresses eastward or poleward. It seems in the last 10 years when that feature has flexed in Nov-Dec that it has real staying power. All tied to the MJO and we know how getting a favorable MJO progression in recent years has been like pulling teeth. 

Because it goes against the Nina background state, which tends to favor convection near the MC.

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I liked last winter having a January that felt like January. As long as Xmas week isn’t a flamethrower torch, I can gut through another disappointing December. But I’m cautiously hopeful it has some wintry appeal.

Yeah I have accepted December is prime Fall weather here. Just give me cool to chilly weather. Love doing outdoor projects and pre Spring yard work now through Xmas. So much better than dealing with warm/humid and bugs.

[SnowGoose69]

53 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Not a whole lot suggesting that Pac ridge progresses eastward or poleward. It seems in the last 10 years when that feature has flexed in Nov-Dec that it has real staying power. All tied to the MJO and we know how getting a favorable MJO progression in recent years has been like pulling teeth. 

 

The one persistent thing has been if the Euro is killing an MJO wave and the GEFS is blasting into the next phase the GEFS has won almost every single time the last 3-4 years.  I'd say its 90-10 or so...no question the Euro has issues on MJO amplitude forecasts 

[Ralph Wiggum]

38 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

The one persistent thing has been if the Euro is killing an MJO wave and the GEFS is blasting into the next phase the GEFS has won almost every single time the last 3-4 years.  I'd say its 90-10 or so...no question the Euro has issues on MJO amplitude forecasts 

This^^

[Bob Chill]

3 hours ago, CAPE said:

Imagine if the reload never comes. 

Going off of intuition only (some call it a WAG lol),I feel pretty strongly against a persistent trough in the west in Dec. Climo and odds favor it so I'm thinking against the grain here. The deep western troughs have all been rolling forward quickly last 6+ weeks. Nothing is locking down yet. Oct/Nov are transitional so locked patterns are less common but even by fall standards, cold continental airmasses have preferred to roll and not sit. 

Dec plays by different rules because 2 week locked patterns are common. All ens are showing a potential strong western NA trough trying to load first week of Dec. If that rolls forward efficiently with successive shortwaves, I'll be pretty stoked cuz we'll be trackin legit phantoms before we know it!

 

Eta: my thoughts above are contingent on the Scandy ridge asserting itself and the NAO domain remaining "unhostile". Or even blocked... We've been bombarded with long duration Nina troughs lately and never get anything to push back until later in the season. I may be off my rocker or too optimistic but I can't ignore the gut feel of a winter with real AO/NAO help (including Dec). We'll see soon enough 

[IUsedToHateCold]

A 2-4 week period of warmth in early December makes sense. I think we rock after that. Could see a repeat of what we saw this month with very warm temps followed by a crash, cold, and this time- snow.

[Bob Chill]

I'm a damn noob again lol. I forgot the CFS ran weeklies. This is a great visual of what I'm thinking (in very general terms). Uber scandy ridge rolls forward and assets itself into the NAO domain and all forces the tpv into Siberia. The last panel shows the -AO/NAO combo flipping + awful quick but thinking that far ahead is more insane than what I'm already posting. 

 

This progression kills the big cold air factory in the arctic but it also keeps the door open for western Canada to do what we need. Force seasonal cold air under a block and it works in early Dec when other features line up. I want a perfect pattern as much as anyone but the vast majority of our snow falls with a jacked up pattern.

If a locked shutout pattern shows up I'll change my mind REAL quick and go dark again 

 

[CAPE]

31 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Going off of intuition only (some call it a WAG lol),I feel pretty strongly against a persistent trough in the west in Dec. Climo and odds favor it so I'm thinking against the grain here. The deep western troughs have all been rolling forward quickly last 6+ weeks. Nothing is locking down yet. Oct/Nov are transitional so locked patterns are less common but even by fall standards, cold continental airmasses have preferred to roll and not sit. 

Dec plays by different rules because 2 week locked patterns are common. All ens are showing a potential strong western NA trough trying to load first week of Dec. If that rolls forward efficiently with successive shortwaves, I'll be pretty stoked cuz we'll be trackin legit phantoms before we know it!

 

Eta: my thoughts above are contingent on the Scandy ridge asserting itself and the NAO domain remaining "unhostile". Or even blocked... We've been bombarded with long duration Nina troughs lately and never get anything to push back until later in the season. I may be off my rocker or too optimistic but I can't ignore the gut feel of a winter with real AO/NAO help (including Dec). We'll see soon enough 

I have the same sort of 'intuition' you do wrt this Oct being the antithesis of last year, and the pattern for the most part has maintained the tendency to be chilly in the east and for warm periods to not lock in. Ofc boilerplate Nina says we are fighting a trough out west. NA blocking can offset that to a degree but best case is the NPAC ridge is displaced east and poleward more times than not. Give me a -EPO with a neutral AO/NAO and I will take my chances. Recent Ninas have found ways to snow in the MA lowlands with progressive patterns that bring the cold.