Ralph Wiggum Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 27 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Oh good. Because 18z is ever so slightly different than 12z. Resembles 12z euro from yesterday at surface. Starting to see 2 camps emerging maybe....wound up GL track vs weaker more progressive low tracking closer to our latitude(s). We're pros at playing the "2 camps" game....and we almost never end up on the fail side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gunny23 Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 17 minutes ago, CAPE said: That trailing energy looks like fun for the Allegheny front. Decorating the house in Canaan for Christmas next weekend. All I want is snow falling while we do it. Mood flakes would do but legit snow would be so much better! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 Thankfully it's the op at long range. Not make any HH friends tonight, fo sho. Nina SER on roids Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Resembles 12z euro from yesterday at surface. Starting to see 2 camps emerging maybe. I think there are three distinct camps beginning to form, the first one is like the 18z GFS which has a very far north low pressure system with no high to pump cold into the northeast. Second camp has the energy forming a costal with blocking in place, like the 12z GFS. Finally the last camp is like the 12z Euro that holds the energy back in the southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 21 minutes ago, CAPE said: That trailing energy looks like fun for the Allegheny front. Thanksgiving leftovers with a side of heavy upslope snow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Thankfully it's the op at long range. Not make any HH friends tonight, fo sho. Nina SER on roids This is as bad as showing an OP snowstorm at D13 leads. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Thankfully it's the op at long range. Not make any HH friends tonight, fo sho. Nina SER on roids Can't have snow in the Mid Atlantic without showing how soon it will melt in the same breath 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 17, 2022 Author Share Posted November 17, 2022 Definitely Miller B flavor on the GEFS. Colder as the coastal gets going is implied, so maybe rain to snow deal. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 Definitely Miller B flavor on the GEFS. Colder as the coastal gets going is implied, so maybe rain to snow deal.Rain to snow is always a realistic option for us.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 18, 2022 Author Share Posted November 18, 2022 16 minutes ago, Ji said: Rain to snow is always a realistic option for us.... Happens all the time in November. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 1 hour ago, nj2va said: Thanksgiving leftovers with a side of heavy upslope snow. I'm so torn, like lusting after a former lover while trying to convince yourself that your new lover is just as good. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 Well that de-escalated quickly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 18, 2022 Author Share Posted November 18, 2022 Wrt late next week, trends I see in the last few model cycles, including 0z runs: NS dominant- energy riding over the ridge and dropping SE. Looks like more of a broad lobe of vorticity than a distinct, sharp shortwave. Latest Euro op has a shot of rain Friday with a piece of southern energy running out ahead of the approaching trough. The look on the ens means is progressive pattern/trough positive to neutral, and the trend is coastal low development offshore/a bit too far north for us. Colder air filters in behind. Upshot at this juncture is the prospects look a bit meh for most of us based on current model depiction, but the general look and idea is still there. The western highlands otoh could see a pretty robust upslope event with the passage of that NS vorticity. All subject to change 7 days out ofc, so keep tracking. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 6z GEFS similar to the depiction that CAPE described above. NS energy that drops in from the Lakes and redevelops off the coast (almost has a Miller B look to it). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 Well at least there is some cold air around as we head into December. Felt like it did not go below freezing until after the New Year last winter…with a little luck the pattern will give many of us some snow by the end of the year. Could not say that in mid November last year looking into December. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 4 hours ago, CAPE said: Wrt late next week, trends I see in the last few model cycles, including 0z runs: NS dominant- energy riding over the ridge and dropping SE. Looks like more of a broad lobe of vorticity than a distinct, sharp shortwave. Latest Euro op has a shot of rain Friday with a piece of southern energy running out ahead of the approaching trough. The look on the ens means is progressive pattern/trough positive to neutral, and the trend is coastal low development offshore/a bit too far north for us. Colder air filters in behind. Upshot at this juncture is the prospects look a bit meh for most of us based on current model depiction, but the general look and idea is still there. The western highlands otoh could see a pretty robust upslope event with the passage of that NS vorticity. All subject to change 7 days out ofc, so keep tracking. the EPS and GEFS are completely different in how they handle the PV lobe in SE Canada the EPS is similar to the better runs where it acts as a 50/50, while the GEFS leaves it much farther NW and torches everyone now we just need to see which is correct! could go either way. this is a very touchy setup 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 2 hours ago, nj2va said: 6z GEFS similar to the depiction that CAPE described above. NS energy that drops in from the Lakes and redevelops off the coast (almost has a Miller B look to it). Thank you for focusing on the ens. I know YOU know this and some others, but i was waiting for someone to come in and claim the GFS op has a full-on Nina look with a racing progressive NS that doesnt have anything to slow it down and amplify it. Of course it is a possible outcome since we are in a Nina, but for now the best bet is use the ens past 5 days or so. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 4 hours ago, CAPE said: Wrt late next week, trends I see in the last few model cycles, including 0z runs: NS dominant- energy riding over the ridge and dropping SE. Looks like more of a broad lobe of vorticity than a distinct, sharp shortwave. Latest Euro op has a shot of rain Friday with a piece of southern energy running out ahead of the approaching trough. The look on the ens means is progressive pattern/trough positive to neutral, and the trend is coastal low development offshore/a bit too far north for us. Colder air filters in behind. Upshot at this juncture is the prospects look a bit meh for most of us based on current model depiction, but the general look and idea is still there. The western highlands otoh could see a pretty robust upslope event with the passage of that NS vorticity. All subject to change 7 days out ofc, so keep tracking. Nothing can happen until December 16. I'll be in SC for Thanksgiving, so this isn't happening. Then Thailand for 3 weeks until the 16th. I'm sorry guys. 2 3 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: the EPS and GEFS are completely different in how they handle the PV lobe in SE Canada the EPS is similar to the better runs where it acts as a 50/50, while the GEFS leaves it much farther NW and torches everyone now we just need to see which is correct! could go either way. this is a very touchy setup EPS up top also has more of a linkup between the PNA ridge trying to connect with the NAO. Causes some more amplification in the pattern. GEFS has more separation and impulses flying across Canada...closed circulation of the vortex in central Canads halts the linkup on the GEFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 45 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Nothing can happen until December 16. I'll be in SC for Thanksgiving, so this isn't happening. Then Thailand for 3 weeks until the 16th. I'm sorry guys. 3 weeks of blizzards while you are gone. Even Cantore will show up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 48 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Nothing can happen until December 16. I'll be in SC for Thanksgiving, so this isn't happening. Then Thailand for 3 weeks until the 16th. I'm sorry guys. I'm shocked you're still allowed to enter SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 50 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Nothing can happen until December 16. I'll be in SC for Thanksgiving, so this isn't happening. Then Thailand for 3 weeks until the 16th. I'm sorry guys. You’ll be back just in time for RELOAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 10 minutes ago, H2O said: 3 weeks of blizzards while you are gone. Even Cantore will show up Don't get banned before the season even starts. 8 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: I'm shocked you're still allowed to enter SC That may be a little later. Trying to get it in now. 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: You’ll be back just in time for RELOAD Now you're talking. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 8 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Don't get banned before the season even starts. 1 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 8 minutes ago, H2O said: the best gif 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: the EPS and GEFS are completely different in how they handle the PV lobe in SE Canada the EPS is similar to the better runs where it acts as a 50/50, while the GEFS leaves it much farther NW and torches everyone now we just need to see which is correct! could go either way. this is a very touchy setup 12z GFS looks a bit more like the Euro ones. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 Well at least there is some cold air around as we head into December. Felt like it did not go below freezing until after the New Year last winter…with a little luck the pattern will give many of us some snow by the end of the year. Could not say that in mid November last year looking into December.Exactly. Give us a cold air source and an active pattern and let’s roll the dice. I’ll take that over last years warm and painful start any day of the week. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 Nothing can happen until December 16. I'll be in SC for Thanksgiving, so this isn't happening. Then Thailand for 3 weeks until the 16th. I'm sorry guys. That’s exactly why it will pan out. Sorry my friend . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 1 minute ago, jayyy said: That’s exactly why it will pan out. Sorry my friend . I will NOT allow it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 1 minute ago, jayyy said: That’s exactly why it will pan out. Sorry my friend . I already thanked him for going out of town so it would snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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