Fall 2022 Medium-Long Range Discussion

[CAPE]

12z EPS is essentially the same as 0z in the big picture. Has a coastal storm with a decent look up top. It's not perfect but we rarely do perfect. The primary issue on the mean is not quite cold enough this run.

[Ralph Wiggum]

28 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Energy stuck in the Southwest.

Only takes a piece of that to eject at the right time to clash with the N Plains energy diving SE. Might not want a big bomb tho, deferring to the pros on that one.

[Bob Chill]

27 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

 

Ensemble mean was definitely weaker and more suppressed. It’s hard to know what we want at this stage since our climo sucks in November, but I think a weaker solution is probably it. 

The only strong storm I'd be good with is one that literally hits rapid deepening at the perfect latitude. Imo, slider or wave type deal hitting right after max cold has pushed south would be the only way without intense anxiety leading in and abject failure leading out lol. I (nobody) needs that right b4 a holiday. 

We've rained in Dec multiple times recently with a perfect track modest low. One that always snows in Jan... I'll never get excited for an amplified storm in Nov unless it's imminent and even then... lol

 

[WxUSAF]

7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The only strong storm I'd be good with is one that literally hits rapid deepening at the perfect latitude. Imo, slider or wave type deal hitting right after max cold has pushed south would be the only way without intense anxiety leading in and abject failure leading out lol. I (nobody) needs that right b4 a holiday. 

We've rained in Dec multiple times recently with a perfect track modest low. One that always snows in Jan... I'll never get excited for an amplified storm in Nov unless it's imminent and even then... lol

 

Exactly. Your first scenario could be the magic “storm creates its own cold air” through strong NE flow and heavy precipitation, which helps with crappy climo, but that’s a serious tightrope to walk.  So if we go with more of a slider type storm after cold air has arrived (and preferably at night), maybe we can pull the rabbit?

[Maestrobjwa]

19 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The only strong storm I'd be good with is one that literally hits rapid deepening at the perfect latitude. Imo, slider or wave type deal hitting right after max cold has pushed south would be the only way without intense anxiety leading in and abject failure leading out lol. I (nobody) needs that right b4 a holiday. 

We've rained in Dec multiple times recently with a perfect track modest low. One that always snows in Jan... I'll never get excited for an amplified storm in Nov unless it's imminent and even then... lol

 

This is where ya wish our climo strike zone was wider than it is, lol We get a good 6-8 weeks to get somethin' to go right!

[mattie g]

13 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Only takes a piece of that to eject at the right time to clash with the N Plains energy diving SE. Might not want a big bomb tho, deferring to the pros on that one.

For sure on both counts.

Maybe a bomb helps with the "creating its cold air" thing, but how likely is that?

[Solution Man]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

This is where ya wish our climo strike zone was wider than it is, lol 6-8 weeks!

Yep, unfortunately that’s how we roll down here.  

[Maestrobjwa]

4 minutes ago, mattie g said:

For sure on both counts.

Maybe a bomb helps with the "creating its cold air" thing, but how likely is that?

Around here not so much, lol Better to kinda toss scenarios that don't usually happen here this time of year (but for a fluke of course)

[Ralph Wiggum]

6 minutes ago, mattie g said:

For sure on both counts.

Maybe a bomb helps with the "creating its cold air" thing, but how likely is that?

See @WxUSAF post above

[Bob Chill]

11 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Exactly. Your first scenario could be the magic “storm creates its own cold air” through strong NE flow and heavy precipitation, which helps with crappy climo, but that’s a serious tightrope to walk.  So if we go with more of a slider type storm after cold air has arrived (and preferably at night), maybe we can pull the rabbit?

I've been quietly interested in this period for over a week. We're undecided between rockville or smith mtn for the holiday. I was rooting for warm but kept telling the fam it looks like Dec haha. It does kinda have the break out the parkas and cameras feel... shovels? Sun angle.... Having another property with similar climo totals but different favored setups will increase my odds of fun. I plan on being in VA for every storm unless it's better here 

8 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

This is where ya wish our climo strike zone was wider than it is, lol 6-8 weeks to get somethin' to go right!

Nov is a silly month here for snow. It never happens and when it does it usually sucks. Except for 87. Still waiting for a redux. Only been 35 years

[CAPE]

21 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I've been quietly interested in this period for over a week. We're undecided between rockville or smith mtn for the holiday. I was rooting for warm but kept telling the fam it looks like Dec haha. It does kinda have the break out the parkas and cameras feel... shovels? Sun angle.... Having another property with similar climo totals but different favored setups will increase my odds of fun. I plan on being in VA for every storm unless it's better here 

Nov is a silly month here for snow. It never happens and when it does it usually sucks. Except for 87. Still waiting for a redux. Only been 35 years

Yep, still waiting, and the waiting will likely continue lol. Long hot summer, extended summer, finally Fall. Actually Fall has been outstanding this year. Then we edge closer to winter, and we see these favorable h5 patterns advertised on guidance, and get ahead of ourselves. We do this every year I think, right? It's like.. practice.

[BristowWx]

18 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Yep, still waiting, and the waiting will likely continue lol. Long hot summer, extended summer, finally Fall. Actually Fall has been outstanding this year. Then we edge closer to winter, and we see these favorable h5 patterns advertised on guidance, and get ahead of ourselves. We do this every year I think, right? It's like.. practice.

It’s more like insanity.  One big snow in Nov 87 and now I expect snow in Nov. I’m a terd with hair. 

[brooklynwx99]

I know that you guys are worried about climo, and rightfully so at this time of year, but this is a loaded pattern

you have a stout +PNA, a decaying west based -NAO, an anomalous 50/50, and a potent shortwave 

this isn’t your typical November setup, so I think it’s worth watching closely even south of the M-D line

[Terpeast]

8 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I know that you guys are worried about climo, and rightfully so at this time of year, but this is a loaded pattern

you have a stout +PNA, a decaying west based -NAO, an anomalous 50/50, and a potent shortwave 

this isn’t your typical November setup, so I think it’s worth watching closely even south of the M-D line

Have we seen a pattern like this at the end of the last 2 autumns? 

I'm thinking if we're seeing this now, this may repeat at least a few more times throughout this winter.

[CAPE]

Actually the 1989 storm around Thanksgiving was the last significant Nov storm I recall. It was actually better for eastern areas I think- had a solid 6 inches here. We have had a few coatings here and there since but mostly we just fail lol. We due!

[Chris78]

43 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I know that you guys are worried about climo, and rightfully so at this time of year, but this is a loaded pattern

you have a stout +PNA, a decaying west based -NAO, an anomalous 50/50, and a potent shortwave 

this isn’t your typical November setup, so I think it’s worth watching closely even south of the M-D line

There's got to be some good outcomes on the individual members with the mean looking like that.

[EasternLI]

32 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Have we seen a pattern like this at the end of the last 2 autumns? 

I'm thinking if we're seeing this now, this may repeat at least a few more times throughout this winter.

Well, that does seem to be a possibility at least. 

 

 

[CAPE]

6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Actually the 1989 storm around Thanksgiving was the last significant Nov storm I recall. It was actually better for eastern areas I think- had a solid 6 inches here. We have had a few coatings here and there since but mostly we just fail lol. We due!

[WxUSAF]

^interesting. +PNA/-NAO/+AO like we have next week. 

[CAPE]

14 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

^interesting. +PNA/-NAO/+AO like we have next week. 

Pretty close. The location of +heights in the NAO domain were more ideal for that event- further south and poking into the Davis Strait, with the core of the neg heights underneath further south. That brought the cold push and the boundary further south, which I think is needed this early in the season.

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Pretty close. The location of +heights in the NAO domain were more ideal for that event- further south and poking into the Davis Strait, with the core of the neg heights underneath further south. That brought the cold push and the boundary further south, which I think is needed this early in the season.

At what point do we pay attention to the op runs?  

[CAPE]

Just now, BristowWx said:

At what point do we pay attention to the op runs?  

You pay attention to them, but at this range you give much more weight to the ens runs to minimize the uncertainty associated with the deterministic guidance.

[BristowWx]

Just now, CAPE said:

You pay attention to them, but at this range you give much more weight to the ens runs to minimize the uncertainty associated with the deterministic guidance.

Oh good.  Because 18z is ever so slightly different than 12z.

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Oh good.  Because 18z is ever so slightly different than 12z.

Oh its different aright lol.

[midatlanticweather]

GFS - WTH! LOL!!!! Honestly, I thought the Euro had kind of this look a few days ago.. maybe a bit more north and west. Well.. that is fun.

 

[CAPE]

This is a progressive pattern- there is no true block as advertised. The '50-50 low' is a vortex moving through that region, not a quasi-stationary feature. Timing is critical.

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

This is a progressive pattern- there is no true block as advertised. The '50-50 low' is a vortex moving through that region, not a quasi-stationary feature. Timing is critical.

It’s fun to track.  Beats a big red h5 blob over the east which we all know and love.  

[CAPE]

That trailing energy looks like fun for the Allegheny front. 

[CAPE]

7 minutes ago, CAPE said:

This is a progressive pattern- there is no true block as advertised. The '50-50 low' is a vortex moving through that region, not a quasi-stationary feature. Timing is critical.

[SnowenOutThere]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Slight run on run change