psuhoffman Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 18 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Reminder to folks that we had a nice -NAO last December and we mostly torched. It can’t help us alone, especially outside of peak climo. Like 4 years ago when I did that case study of every storm that averaged 5” across the 3 airports I did notice that there were a lot of good Atlantic bad pacific combos in the cohort for February and March and almost none earlier in Winter. Just supporting what you’re saying, it’s a lot easier to overcome a bad pacific later in winter. Early…it’s pretty difficult. We kinda need the pattern upstream to be favorable to have a good shot the first 1/3 of the snow season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Like 4 years ago when I did that case study of every storm that averaged 5” across the 3 airports I did notice that there were a lot of good Atlantic bad pacific combos in the cohort for February and March and almost none earlier in Winter. Just supporting what you’re saying, it’s a lot easier to overcome a bad pacific later in winter. Early…it’s pretty difficult. We kinda need the pattern upstream to be favorable to have a good shot the first 1/3 of the snow season. Yup. What the ensembles are spitting out for next week is pretty dang nice frankly with that +PNA spike and a helpful Atlantic side. EPS made a huge shift from earlier runs at 0z. It’s just…November. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 29 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Yup. What the ensembles are spitting out for next week is pretty dang nice frankly with that +PNA spike and a helpful Atlantic side. EPS made a huge shift from earlier runs at 0z. It’s just…November. I just posted in the winter thread. But the mid December time period looks really nice actually. MJO, NAO and PNA all look tasty for that time period. No guarantee the temps will cooperate. Especially for the coastal plain. But there could be a legit chance during that time period. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 This would be good.. if it happens 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 38 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: I just posted in the winter thread. But the mid December time period looks really nice actually. MJO, NAO and PNA all look tasty for that time period. No guarantee the temps will cooperate. Especially for the coastal plain. But there could be a legit chance during that time period. This is exactly what we're hoping for in regards to a reload. I know I'm preaching to the choir, but patterns generally stick around for a good period of time, but they will relax here and there. If this pattern is now just beginning, we probably have about through the turn of the new year to cash in, but we have to accept that we won't go wall-to-wall. Pattern relaxes a little around Thanksgiving, then if we reload we get into much less hostile (even if not prime) climo. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 GFS Looks like a move to the Euro for next weekend? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 20 hours ago, CAPE said: It only has like 6 different lows lol. But yeah its a mild rain storm with cold coming in behind verbatim. Has it raining Thanksgiving evening into Friday. Thanksgiving 2m temps coming in nipsy russell compared to recent runs. Like that HP trying to wedge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 I don't know much, but a few weeks later I imagine this would be really exciting. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I don't know much, but a few weeks later I imagine this would be really exciting. Kind of weenie looking now 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 Just now, Solution Man said: Kind of wennie looking now Looking at exact P-Type maps for a moment (yes, bad idea, I know @CAPE ) it's verbatim a very close swing and a miss. Still first wintry precip for many, ignoring random sleet or flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Looking at exact P-Type maps for a moment (yes, bad idea, I know @CAPE ) it's verbatim a very close swing and a miss. Still first wintry precip for many, ignoring random sleet or flurries. Something to track 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 6 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: GFS Looks like a move to the Euro for next weekend? The GFS is far more similar to the 0z run but the low is slightly too far west. However, the high stays entrenched in Canada the whole storm making it very close, especially for November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 Going to be in beautiful Harrisburg, PA visiting relatives for Thanksgiving this year. Time to track obsessively! Looks like this one could hit the interior, but, 9 days out and all that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 13 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: GFS Looks like a move to the Euro for next weekend? Kinda? There hasn’t been a drop of consistency yet so not worth parsing Op runs yet except for the popcorn value. Just seems like an increasing chance of that cold HP arriving in advance of precip with a big storm somewhere in the eastern conus. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Kinda? There hasn’t been a drop of consistency yet so not worth parsing Op runs yet except for the popcorn value. Just seems like an increasing chance of that cold HP arriving in advance of precip with a big storm somewhere in the eastern conus. Yeah, I was just comparing to 0z, I just started looking at this today, as Tony Pann is already kinda wolfing on facebook The cold/high forcing the low underneath looks interesting though if that feature stays Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 19 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Kinda? There hasn’t been a drop of consistency yet so not worth parsing Op runs yet except for the popcorn value. Just seems like an increasing chance of that cold HP arriving in advance of precip with a big storm somewhere in the eastern conus. SMACK! LOL! For real, us weenies need to keep reality in check. The rules apply: Way too early to get excited Climo We need luck which will be hard to see if we have any Climo It is November Models suck and are guidelines Climo OK - The message is there! BUT, I do like the upper level patten .. BUT - Climo! LOL! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 Everyone keeps saying what if this were 3 weeks later, climo, are we alluding to water temps? Or what? We have snow cover to our north to help support our source regions….water temps are above normal. WB maps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 Euro now says “what storm?” For next weekend. This is fun. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 9 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: Hey, lookie here! I'm not the only one using the word "reload"! Ok, I'll shut up now. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Euro now says “what storm?” For next weekend. This is fun. 12z GEFS didn't look as impressive at h5 anomaly as it did at 6z....at least that's the way it looked to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 17, 2022 Author Share Posted November 17, 2022 Volatile. Weeeeeee! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 Op GFS looks real amped, but the ensemble mean shows a more positively tilted trough. Might mean a colder and more suppressed solution. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 9 minutes ago, CAPE said: Volatile. Weeeeeee! Energy stuck in the Southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 11 minutes ago, BristowWx said: 12z GEFS didn't look as impressive at h5 anomaly as it did at 6z....at least that's the way it looked to me. 7 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Op GFS looks real amped, but the ensemble mean shows a more positively tilted trough. Might mean a colder and more suppressed solution. Ensemble mean was definitely weaker and more suppressed. It’s hard to know what we want at this stage since our climo sucks in November, but I think a weaker solution is probably it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 28 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: Now I'm officially interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 FWIW... again, might be more SNE centric, but still 12z EPS: 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: The table is set by D7 on the EPS....you can see all the key synoptic features....the 50/50 low producing confluence to our north, the shortwave over the central US, a stout western ridge, and solid -NAO to hold the 50/50 in place longer as the shortwave approaches. All very good to see. Obviously we need to get this about 2-3 days closer to take it really seriously, but you'd rather have this general look than not right now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, yoda said: FWIW... again, might be more SNE centric, but still 12z EPS: That's a nice look. Even for the mid Atlantic 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 37 minutes ago, CAPE said: Volatile. Weeeeeee! Thats a hell of a +PNA nosing into the EPO. Definitely a PAC look that would work this time of year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 7 minutes ago, Chris78 said: That's a nice look. Even for the mid Atlantic It’s a very nice look. More what the GEFS had before 12z went more positively tilted and progressive. Wish it was winter… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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