Fall 2022 Medium-Long Range Discussion

[IronTy]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Always take that pattern and let the chips fall.

Sage wisdom.   

[mattie g]

On 11/13/2022 at 2:21 PM, CAPE said:

All 3 of the biggies had no temp worries, despite somewhat marginal temps to start. The beauty of a legit -AO/-NAO in place. Hard to beat for us. We trend colder as the storm approaches/gets going rather than the usual opposite.

The real cold powder storm that winter was the late Jan event with temps in the mid teens the whole time. Underrated storm- loved that one.

So much fun. We trended from being fringed to what...7-8" of frigid powder during a weekend daytime storm?

17 hours ago, CAPE said:

CFS continues its run of complete weenieness for Dec.

That's outrageous.

[BuffaloWeather]

7 hours ago, CAPE said:

The Bills are home Sunday against the Browns.

Might be snowed in 

[nw baltimore wx]

2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Might be snowed in 

If the NFL has any sense, that game will be televised in as many markets as possible.  I hope that it is here.

[BuffaloWeather]

6 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

If the NFL has any sense, that game will be televised in as many markets as possible.  I hope that it is here.

I'm a season ticket holder so you know I'll be there. 

[WxUSAF]

Euro has some flurries/snow showers early Sunday as a reinforcing cold shot arrives. 

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

4 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Might be snowed in 

Source?

[BuffaloWeather]

6 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Source?

Thats from accuweather which is obviously hyping it up. But the local National weather service is projecting similar totals of multiple feet. All 3 globals show 40-60" of snow with 3-5" of QPF. 

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Thats from accuweather which is obviously hyping it up. But the local National weather service is projecting similar totals of multiple feet. All 3 globals show 40-60" of snow with 3-5" of QPF. 

How exciting!

[WxUSAF]

Models+ensembles have a pretty consistent depiction of the last 2 weeks of November.  Cold and mostly dry after today through next ~Wednesday, some seasonable moderation for Thanksgiving/Black Friday and a day or two after, then perhaps one last cool/cold shot.  

After that we moderate, but perhaps not AN because of the -NAO nosing into Greenland and Baffin Island.

The -PNA out west cuts us off from really frigid arctic air, but the -NAO could be enough to keep us near normal or slightly below.  

What happens after depends on 2 things I think.  First, that PV over eastern Siberia.  If you look on TT or Pivotal, you can see that PV moves east through Siberia throughout the D7-15 period.  If it continues east toward Kamchatka, that should push the -WPO ridge back over Alaska into the -EPO domain.  The extended GFS from Sunday showed this:

With the PV in that location, ridging is forced over the west coast and AK.  With the -NAO, that could give a pattern like @CAPE's CFS plots from yesterday.  If that stops going east or it merges with another trop PV over the pole, that would cut us off from colder air with the AO going positive and the EPO staying positive as well.  The second is maintaining the -NAO. If that sticks around (which it seems to want to do) and we keep the Pacific domain at least neutral to our interests, and that could set us up well by ~Dec 7 or so.  

[clskinsfan]

11 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

**ahem**

 

[IUsedToHateCold]

20 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I’ve increasingly come to like 95-96 as an analog, despite some significant differences. I think volatile is the right word and I point the finger at the volcano. I could easily see a winter much like this month with periods of extreme warm and cold, and with definite potential for some major snow. 

[BristowWx]

38 minutes ago, IUsedToHateCold said:

I’ve increasingly come to like 95-96 as an analog, despite some significant differences. I think volatile is the right word and I point the finger at the volcano. I could easily see a winter much like this month with periods of extreme warm and cold, and with definite potential for some major snow. 

The guy from channel 4 said 76-77 and 11-12 is what he was thinking.  That should be interesting.  

[IUsedToHateCold]

8 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

The guy from channel 4 said 76-77 and 11-12 is what he was thinking.  That should be interesting.  

Yeah I think he’s wrong. We could easily have a 2010-2011 type season but I think 2011-2012 is unlikely. 

[CAPE]

Potential post Turkey Day storm on the GEFS. A handful of members are semi-interesting.

[CAPE]

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, CAPE said:

Lots of spread on if there will even be a storm but the general pattern looks interesting on the ensembles. Would be fun to be able to track something this early.

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Lots of spread on if there will even be a storm but the general pattern looks interesting on the ensembles. Would be fun to be able to track something this early.

Signal for something during that timeframe on the EPS too. Looks like a Miller B type evolution, which isn't surprising. 

Yes the general pattern for that period is decent enough as advertised, esp the developing -NAO and 50-50 low.

[SnowenOutThere]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Looks like a Miller B type evolution, which isn't surprising. 

Don't tell Maestrobjwa.

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Yes the general pattern for that period is decent enough as advertised, esp the developing -NAO and 50-50 low.

I've been learning more about pattern and more technical stuff this season with these early storm possibilities. I mean with a -NAO and 50-50 low shouldn't that allow the pattern to slow down and give us some blocking which helps storms not run out to sea. Would that mean the main concern would be not enough cold air in place because of climo and a not great PAC pattern?

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Don't tell Maestrobjwa.

I've been learning more about pattern and more technical stuff this season with these early storm possibilities. I mean with a -NAO and 50-50 low shouldn't that allow the pattern to slow down and give us some blocking which helps storms not run out to sea. Would that mean the main concern would be not enough cold air in place because of climo and a not great PAC pattern?

Generally yes on both. Biggest issue is still going to be climo for the lowlands.

[WxUSAF]

23 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Generally yes on both. Biggest issue is still going to be climo for the lowlands.

The real cold air is scoured out ahead of this storm so we’re left with modified air which makes it tough anytime of year and especially in November. But I’ve seen a few op runs that have a fresh airmass nose in from the N/NE just in time, so maybe there’s a chance.

[mattie g]

@WxUSAF...fantastic post above, and not just because it shows how we could slip into potentially solid setup.

It's still so early. We just need to be patient and see where we go over the next couple weeks. I'm feeling pretty good about the potential in December into January. If things line up in our favor for 4-5 weeks, let's take advantage of it and let the rest of the winter play out.

[poolz1]

Regarding the Thanksgiving time storm potential. Yesterday's 12z run the GEFS started the idea of backing the trough off the west coast.  Some those runs that nose a fresh cold high down in time may start to get some legs. Ens now showing surface high pressure  in SE Can and New England compared to 24 hours ago.

 

 

 

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, mattie g said:

@WxUSAF...fantastic post above, and not just because it shows how we could slip into potentially solid setup.

It's still so early. We just need to be patient and see where we go over the next couple weeks. I'm feeling pretty good about the potential in December into January. If things line up in our favor for 4-5 weeks, let's take advantage of it and let the rest of the winter play out.

We really just can't know beyond a couple weeks. Keep an eye on the advertised look on the ens means, the MJO forecast, and what the Pacific jet is doing. The Extended/weekly tools going out 4-6 weeks are what they are. Fun to look at when they show something nice, but high uncertainty and prone to flip-flopping over a few runs.

[BristowWx]

1 hour ago, poolz1 said:

Regarding the Thanksgiving time storm potential. Yesterday's 12z run the GEFS started the idea of backing the trough off the west coast.  Some those runs that nose a fresh cold high down in time may start to get some legs. Ens now showing surface high pressure  in SE Can and New England compared to 24 hours ago.

 

 

 

Seems the 12z op is also showing more evidence of this compared to last two runs (6z-0z) with a 1042 looking poised to nose in.  should be interesting to see where that goes.

[WxUSAF]

1 hour ago, poolz1 said:

Regarding the Thanksgiving time storm potential. Yesterday's 12z run the GEFS started the idea of backing the trough off the west coast.  Some those runs that nose a fresh cold high down in time may start to get some legs. Ens now showing surface high pressure  in SE Can and New England compared to 24 hours ago.

 

 

 

12z GFS and GGEM both have flavors of “cold high arrives” just in time. Except not in time for us and we get cold rain or chilly rain. But it’s worth watching. 

32 minutes ago, CAPE said:

We really just can't know beyond a couple weeks. Keep an eye on the advertised look on the ens means, the MJO forecast, and what the Pacific jet is doing. The Extended/weekly tools going out 4-6 weeks are what they are. Fun to look at when they show something nice, but high uncertainty and prone to flip-flopping over a few runs.

MJO from Mike Ventrice’s website shows a MJO progression that could lead to favorable west coast/AK ridging early-mid December.

Phase 7-8 are cold for us in December. 

[CAPE]

15 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

12z GFS and GGEM both have flavors of “cold high arrives” just in time. Except not in time for us and we get cold rain or chilly rain. But it’s worth watching. 

MJO from Mike Ventrice’s website shows a MJO progression that could lead to favorable west coast/AK ridging early-mid December.

Phase 7-8 are cold for us in December. 

Getting the AK ridge more eastward and poleward is a big deal in a Nina. If we get that feature in a favorable position with some persistence we can get cold and keep the SE ridge suppressed. We shall see about the AO/NAO, but it appears the HL will be favorable for a time at least.

[SnowenOutThere]

On pivotal the new GFS ensembles has DC at an inch of snow. Maybe at @CAPE can post the individual panels? It has trended more snowy from last night, then again it's over 200 hours out.

[CAPE]

24 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

On pivotal the new GFS ensembles has DC at an inch of snow. Maybe at @CAPE can post the individual panels? It has trended more snowy from last night, then again it's over 200 hours out.

At 200+ hours out it's probably not worth posting individual panels for snow/p-type every run. The general idea is the same as the previous run and the biggest question at this juncture, should there be a storm, is how much cold can get involved. 

[North Balti Zen]

the euro says congrats Sault St. Marie, I think...