Terpeast Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, jayyy said: Up in Perrysburg OH this weekend for a college buddy’s wedding. It went from 66 degrees and sunny yesterday to 34 and snow today. Fatty flakes too. Not really sticking to much but cartops, but beautiful nonetheless. Definitely feel bad for my friends who have to move their wedding indoors due to the snow Winters almost back lads! This wave for next week looks somewhat interesting for us down in the DMV. Could see a bit of snow fall. From the typically colder areas from PSU over to Northern carroll and points WNW, particularly along the Allegheny front in WVA and W MD. Climo says it’s likely snow tv for 90%+ of us and a sloppy, cold rain near I-95, but we’ve seen crazier stuff happen in November. Thanks for the updates @Cape! Been waiting a year to see your wonderful posts. #SetupMaster Could see some mood flakes, and what’s interesting is that the models show a few impulses along the SE coast in the next week or so. Maybe it’s just a blip, but it could also be a sign of what’s to come this winter whenever we get a positively tilted longwave trough centered over the US midwest. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 12, 2022 Author Share Posted November 12, 2022 45 minutes ago, jayyy said: Up in Perrysburg OH this weekend for a college buddy’s wedding. It went from 66 degrees and sunny yesterday to 34 and snow today. Fatty flakes too. Not really sticking to much but cartops, but beautiful nonetheless. Definitely feel bad for my friends who have to move their wedding indoors due to the snow Winters almost back lads! This wave for next week looks somewhat interesting for us down in the DMV. Could see a bit of snow fall. From the typically colder areas from PSU over to Northern carroll and points WNW, particularly along the Allegheny front in WVA and W MD. Climo says it’s likely snow tv for 90%+ of us and a sloppy, cold rain near I-95, but we’ve seen crazier stuff happen in November. Thanks for the updates @Cape! Been waiting a year to see your wonderful posts. #SetupMaster Thanks, but not really. Looking ahead and seeing the potential (rather than being stuck in the despair of a shit pattern) pays off once in awhile. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 12, 2022 Author Share Posted November 12, 2022 22 hours ago, CAPE said: Pattern as advertised on GEFS is 'getting there' towards the end of the month. The (upcoming) Pac jet retraction has the ideal ridge/trough position around AK inverted as depicted, so that could use some work. The AO is slightly+ to neutral. NAO trending negative.. moving into Dec ideally we see the NA +heights shifted a bit more over central/southern GL, with the associated trough further SE towards the 50-50 region, and some improvement in the Pacific. All that said, we see winter storms quite often with less than ideal h5 patterns. Need to get into the front end of snow climo period as much as anything. If the latest GEFS extended is correct, the Pacific pattern improves and flips the dipole, with a trough near the Aleutians and a Downstream ridge. Meanwhile the NAO domain also looks close to ideal. Pretty nice pattern heading into the second week of Dec if it's real. 13 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 This cold underperformed when is the next reload? 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said: This cold underperformed when is the next reload? Thanksgiving day…I just know it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 13, 2022 Author Share Posted November 13, 2022 1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said: This cold underperformed when is the next reload? You mean the cold that just arrived today? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 13, 2022 Author Share Posted November 13, 2022 Temps look solidly below average through Thanksgiving on the means, although the GEFS depicts some moderation sooner(around Thanksgiving) than the EPS. The period just beyond that looks milder with some relaxation in the pattern, as the amped ridge over AK looks to weaken and retrograde over the Aleutians. Then we will see about a reload heading into December. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said: This cold underperformed when is the next reload? April? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 13, 2022 Author Share Posted November 13, 2022 Nice reload. Looks more like a Nino pattern. CFS has been bullish for a while now with the HL +heights for early winter, and other LR/ extended products are in agreement. Weenie west based -NAO/50-50 low. 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: Nice reload. Looks more like a Nino pattern. CFS has been bullish for a while now with the HL +heights for early winter, and other LR/ extended products are in agreement. Weenie west based -NAO/50-50 low. Man I love your posts. I definitely think with the modeling that December could be a great month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 13, 2022 Author Share Posted November 13, 2022 11 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Man I love your posts. I definitely think with the modeling that December could be a great month. We can hope. Plenty of uncertainty with modeling of longwave patterns at 2+ week leads. It would be nice to have an h5 look like that for late Dec into Jan. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 13, 2022 Author Share Posted November 13, 2022 CFS has that same general look for the last half of Dec, but with -height anomalies across the entire lower 48 lol. If only. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 24 minutes ago, CAPE said: CFS has that same general look for the last half of Dec, but with -height anomalies across the entire lower 48 lol. If only. Curious how does it look after that? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 54 minutes ago, CAPE said: We can hope. Plenty of uncertainty with modeling of longwave patterns at 2+ week leads. It would be nice to have an h5 look like that for late Dec into Jan. Yeah for sure. One thing im happy with is that we know we can get the cold air in here. Just need a storm or two with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 13, 2022 Author Share Posted November 13, 2022 1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said: Curious how does it look after that? } // end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 4 hours ago, CAPE said: Nice reload. Looks more like a Nino pattern. CFS has been bullish for a while now with the HL +heights for early winter, and other LR/ extended products are in agreement. Weenie west based -NAO/50-50 low. Even a bit of split flow and a weakness off Baja that implies a touch of sub tropical jet. I wouldn't kick that look out of bed going into Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 13, 2022 Author Share Posted November 13, 2022 7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Even a bit of split flow and a weakness off Baja that implies a touch of sub tropical jet. I wouldn't kick that look out of bed going into Christmas. Yeah looks Nino-ish. Look at my profile pic- very similar. Guess what h5 composite that is. 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 13, 2022 Author Share Posted November 13, 2022 The possible Friday wave looks dead, but models hinting at Sunday into Monday, which might have better wintry potential with the cold more entrenched. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: Yeah looks Nino-ish. Look at my profile pic- very similar. Guess what h5 composite that is. Time to stock up on the DFH 120s. December is gonna rock! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 13, 2022 Author Share Posted November 13, 2022 Just now, Scraff said: Time to stock up on the DFH 120s. December is gonna rock! yeah baby! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 13, 2022 Author Share Posted November 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: The possible Friday wave looks dead, but models hinting at Sunday into Monday, which might have better wintry potential with the cold more entrenched. Speaking of which, pay no attention to the 12z Euro op run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 10 minutes ago, CAPE said: Yeah looks Nino-ish. Look at my profile pic- very similar. Guess what h5 composite that is. 2009 - 2010? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 13, 2022 Author Share Posted November 13, 2022 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: 2009 - 2010? I think I just did Dec 2009. Been a couple years lol. Good guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 Just now, CAPE said: I think I just did Dec 2009. Been a couple years lol. Good guess. Dec 2009 snowstorm was amazing. Classic cold powder with no temp worries. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, CAPE said: Speaking of which, pay no attention to the 12z Euro op run. Right on the boundary, sorta feels like it might be a repeat of what happened to the midweek wave. Still interesting to see it show up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 13, 2022 Author Share Posted November 13, 2022 12 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Dec 2009 snowstorm was amazing. Classic cold powder with no temp worries. All 3 of the biggies had no temp worries, despite somewhat marginal temps to start. The beauty of a legit -AO/-NAO in place. Hard to beat for us. We trend colder as the storm approaches/gets going rather than the usual opposite. The real cold powder storm that winter was the late Jan event with temps in the mid teens the whole time. Underrated storm- loved that one. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 13, 2022 Author Share Posted November 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Right on the boundary, sorta feels like it might be a repeat of what happened to the midweek wave. Still interesting to see it show up Yes climo is still a legit issue. The Euro has been colder during that window than the GFS, so we will see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 11 minutes ago, CAPE said: Yes climo is still a legit issue. The Euro has been colder during that window than the GFS, so we will see. That’s some legit cold air (for November) before and especially after that storm. I’m going to look back at the last 10-15 Novembers and see where upper 10s/low 20s would rank if we manage to get that cold. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 Did anyone else notice the 2 nor'easters in the long range euro? One is on the warm side and one was riding the freezing line. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 13, 2022 Author Share Posted November 13, 2022 14 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: That’s some legit cold air (for November) before and especially after that storm. I’m going to look back at the last 10-15 Novembers and see where upper 10s/low 20s would rank if we manage to get that cold. CMC has impressive cold too, but no storm. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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