Fall 2022 Medium-Long Range Discussion

[CAPE]

12z EPS 

Super impressive and a colder look. Classic -NAO dipole. Also hinting at something trackable around the 8th.

[Bob Chill]

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

12z EPS 

Super impressive and a colder look. Classic -NAO dipole. Also hinting at something trackable around the 8th.

If the EPS version is correct, this is not a hit and run imo.  That is basically the entire northern hemisphere linking up with a prime anomalous  and displaced winter pattern. That is winter from San Fran to Raleigh to London to Eastern Siberia lol. Something strong will have to break it down. 

 

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[CAPE]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

If the EPS version is correct, this is not a hit and run imo.  That is basically the entire northern hemisphere linking up with a prime anomalous  and displaced winter pattern. That is winter from San Fran to Raleigh to London to Eastern Siberia lol. Something strong will have to break it down. 

 

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We overdue for a wire to wire winter of HL blocking. Get it established early. In addition to climo, I am a believer in persistence.

[Ralph Wiggum]

9 minutes ago, CAPE said:

12z EPS 

Super impressive and a colder look. Classic -NAO dipole. Also hinting at something trackable around the 8th.

Someone needs to add the Bob Chill emoji to the like button selections. That is pants tent worthy.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Jersey Andrew said:

Was February 2010 crippling Snowpocalypse accompanied by West Coast troughing?

Yes 

[brooklynwx99]

26 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

If the EPS version is correct, this is not a hit and run imo.  That is basically the entire northern hemisphere linking up with a prime anomalous  and displaced winter pattern. That is winter from San Fran to Raleigh to London to Eastern Siberia lol. Something strong will have to break it down. 

 

,

yup! the EPS is absolutely loaded. here is a 7 day loop of the preloading pattern for 18”+ snowfalls in NYC, and you can see how you take the EPS around a week later and this occurs. really exciting look!

btw, the preloading composites for NYC and BWI for the 18”+ events are very similar, so this is still useful for you guys. many of the storms that gave NYC all time amounts were great for the MA as well (2016 and 1996 come to mind)

i’m also inclined to believe that the block is legit since it comes from a retrograding Scandinavian HP… those are known to cause our best periods of blocking

[WxUSAF]

 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

You need to post more dude. Things are looking promising. We are on the doorstep of Dec and the advertised look is stellar for a change. Sure all sorts of shit can go wrong, but rather the guidance be teasing us with something favorable vs the usual shutout look lol.

 I am pleased with what I see. But I’ve been incredibly busy for many reasons. And you, wxusaf and Bob have done an excellent job.  Plus I think most in this sub now know what we’re looking at. It’s an incredibly knowledgeable group in general. Given how busy I’ve been just didn’t feel it was necessary to make some long winded post saying in essence “ditto”. But I suspect if this pattern is anything close to advertised we will begin seeing discreet threats soon and rest assured I’ll be around. 

[IronTy]

My petunias are already dead and it isn't even december.  If that isn't a strong omen about the upcoming pattern then nothing is.  

[Prestige Worldwide]

Coast to coast 

[Rvarookie]

43 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 I am pleased with what I see. But I’ve been incredibly busy for many reasons. And you, wxusaf and Bob have done an excellent job.  Plus I think most in this sub now know what we’re looking at. It’s an incredibly knowledgeable group in general. Given how busy I’ve been just didn’t feel it was necessary to make some long winded post saying in essence “ditto”. But I suspect if this pattern is anything close to advertised we will begin seeing discreet threats soon and rest assured I’ll be around. 

Even your “ditto” post add so much value around here. Look forward to hearing your thoughts when time permits

[Rvarookie]

9 minutes ago, IronTy said:

My petunias are already dead and it isn't even december.  If that isn't a strong omen about the upcoming pattern then nothing is.  

Squirrels went pretty nuts this year too 

[Kevin Reilly]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

12z EPS 

Super impressive and a colder look. Classic -NAO dipole. Also hinting at something trackable around the 8th.

I Remember the GFS on Tuesday, November 22nd on its 12z run was showing a 4-8" snowstorm on December 8th coming up from the southwest moving northeast off the Virgina Capes. 

[CAPE]

45 minutes ago, Prestige Worldwide said:

Coast to coast 

Except for the high desert of Denver lol. Downsloping ftl.

[IronTy]

55 minutes ago, Rvarookie said:

Squirrels went pretty nuts this year too 

Exactly.  Ignore the signs at your peril.  Petunias knew it was gonna be a massacre this year so they didn't even try, just upped and died.  

[Rhino16]

22 hours ago, Kevin Reilly said:

I Remember the GFS on Tuesday, November 22nd on its 12z run was showing a 4-8" snowstorm on December 8th coming up from the southwest moving northeast off the Virgina Capes. 

I think most of that was sleet though , unless you accounted for that too.