Daniel Boone Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 3 hours ago, Bob Chill said: If the early Dec deep western trough rolls quick like what's been happening all fall, Dec will keep a lot of people glued to screens every 6 hours . And if a stable block sets up then 10x as many will be glued... Could be another 3 weeks western trough, eastern ridge like late October early Nov. Lol. Let's hope not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 21, 2022 Author Share Posted November 21, 2022 Latest edition of the Euro weeklies at h5 plus surface temp anomalies, one week beyond the 0z EPS run it initialized off of. We see the Okhotsk vortex continue to weaken, and the pattern progressing accordingly with +heights building in the EPO domain, and ditto in the NAO domain. A pretty nice look. Worth noting the 12z EPS took a slight step back in weakening that vortex as compared to the 0z run. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 58 minutes ago, Afewuniverses said: No. That 572 vortex isn't strong. I wouldn’t get hung up in what happens 2 weeks from now. 2 weeks ago Thanksgiving looked wintry. That bird was stuffed and served with a side of mid 50s and partly cloudy. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 Man, I still can't get the multiverse treble hook out of my mouth. I bit that ish hard lol. 4 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 1 hour ago, BristowWx said: I wouldn’t get hung up in what happens 2 weeks from now. 2 weeks ago Thanksgiving looked wintry. That bird was stuffed and served with a side of mid 50s and partly cloudy. Perfect weather as far as I'm concerned. We're generally abysmal at November snow anyway. December is game on, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 39 minutes ago, 87storms said: Perfect weather as far as I'm concerned. We're generally abysmal at November snow anyway. December is game on, though. Agreed. Dec 5th and onward! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 2 hours ago, Bob Chill said: Man, I still can't get the multiverse treble hook out of my mouth. I bit that ish hard lol. You are just out of message board shape. A couple trolls, some memes and weather will probs maps will have you back on your A game. Bob Chilly>>>A few universes short of a happy meal 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 3 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: Agreed. Dec 5th and onward! That's a Monday, though. Might have to move the start date to Dec 9. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 15 hours ago, North Balti Zen said: He’s been here on the forum “23 hours” and he is on the forum no longer 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 I still say first week of December has at least one 70 degree day at DCA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said: I still say first week of December has at least one 70 degree day at DCA The 0z operational GFS I looked at last night supports this. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 D12-15 on the 6z GEFS = wooo baby 7 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 D12-15 on the 6z GEFS = wooo baby:weenie:Let’s get this inside Day 10. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 2 hours ago, WxUSAF said: D12-15 on the 6z GEFS = wooo baby We need to score early and often! Takes the pressure off the rest of the game. This becomes especially true when when we run into the Torchuary Doomsday Day defense. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 We need to score early and often! Takes the pressure off the rest of the game. This becomes especially true when when we run into the Torchuary Doomsday Day defense. Still looking decent at 12z . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 2 minutes ago, Heisy said: Still looking decent at 12z . EPO-NAO ridge bridge??? Pinch me. Anyone who gets antsy seeing the SE ridge should chillax… That will get beat down and you want something keeping the storm track nearby in that look. 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 22, 2022 Author Share Posted November 22, 2022 12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: EPO-NAO ridge bridge??? Pinch me. Anyone who gets antsy seeing the SE ridge should chillax… That will get beat down and you want something keeping the storm track nearby in that look. I can envision a path to victory with a wave moving along the boundary around the 10th with that look. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 Just now, CAPE said: I can envision a path to victory with a wave moving along the boundary around the 10th with that look. Yup. End of the 12z Op GFS is illustrative of what could happen with such a look. Successive waves beat down the SE ridge and supply cold air and then we get a wave to move toward us with a conducive environment. This is a very normal way we get snow. It’s a ways off so need to see how stable this look is…but man oh man, it’s pretty. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 22, 2022 Author Share Posted November 22, 2022 Just now, WxUSAF said: Yup. End of the 12z Op GFS is illustrative of what could happen with such a look. Successive waves beat down the SE ridge and supply cold air and then we get a wave to move toward us with a conducive environment. This is a very normal way we get snow. It’s a ways off so need to see how stable this look is…but man oh man, it’s pretty. That's pretty much the way it went in the early Jan storm last winter. And it wasn't like the cold had to get established for multiple days- it was 60 the day before. Cold pressing and well timed healthy wave. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 Man, I'm diggin the quick carve progression in early Dec. Fits into the personality of the last 1.5 months. Fast starts and good winters are rare. 2013 was the last one right? 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 6 minutes ago, CAPE said: That's pretty much the way it went in the early Jan storm last winter. And it wasn't like the cold had to get established for multiple days- it was 60 the day before. Cold pressing and well timed healthy wave. Yup. And that ridge bridge with a trop PV underneath could supply some legit cold air. 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Man, I'm diggin the quick carve progression in early Dec. Fits into the personality of the last 1.5 months. Fast starts and good winters are rare. 2013 was the last one right? Pretty much. Had some snow in 2017 and 2020 too, but 2013 was last real winter month December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 @ORH_wxman posted 12z EPS in the NE sub. Looks like 6z GEFS. Pants tent 4 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: @ORH_wxman posted 12z EPS in the NE sub. Looks like 6z GEFS. Pants tent That's a pretty strong looking -NAO for a day 14 mean.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 2 minutes ago, LP08 said: That's a pretty strong looking -NAO for a day 14 mean.... The NAO signal has been there off and on for awhile. But the -EPO has really grown on the D10+ progs over the last 48 hours. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 holy crap 12 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: The NAO signal has been there off and on for awhile. But the -EPO has really grown on the D10+ progs over the last 48 hours. 16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Pretty intense for D14-15 20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It's been a while since I've seen the EPS this bullish on NAO blocking that far out in the run....the mean is like 250dm anomalies for D14-15 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 12z EPS has legit cross polar flow D12 - D20. Really going to build up snowpack in North America with that. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 this is a really nice evolution with the Scandinavian ridging retrograding into Greenland. that's a signal for a legit block, and they like to leak farther W too 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 we're also going to see very strong high pressure move into Mongolia over the next 5-7 days, leading to a +EAMT that will extend the Pacific jet and lead to the anomalous -EPO that's showing up on modeling... so I think that's for real the blocking is a bit more nebulous, but with all the Scandinavian ridging I think that there's a better chance than not of a -NAO after the first week of December 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 Blocking, cross-polar flow, reloading, mentions of December 2013, pants tents...dogs and cats living together...oh my! 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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