Fall 2022 Medium-Long Range Discussion

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

the euro says congrats Sault St. Marie, I think...

It only has like 6 different lows lol. But yeah its a mild rain storm with cold coming in behind verbatim. Has it raining Thanksgiving evening into Friday.

[Scraff]

First woof of the year? 

[WxUSAF]

^that extended GFS is closer to the bad scenario I described yesterday. Siberian PV merges with the piece over the eastern Arctic ocean and we’re cutoff from fresh cold air. -NAO there keeps us from torching but that’s not a cold pattern. Modified PAC air rarely is sufficient for snow for us before January. 

[nj2va]

This will change but the upslope potential for the mountains next weekend on the 12z GFS OP is .

[psuhoffman]

26 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

^that extended GFS is closer to the bad scenario I described yesterday. Siberian PV merges with the piece over the eastern Arctic ocean and we’re cutoff from fresh cold air. -NAO there keeps us from torching but that’s not a cold pattern. Modified PAC air rarely is sufficient for snow for us before January. 

Lately it's been problematic even in January/February, which is a huge issue since that look there is responsible for some of our biggest snowstorms historically, but as you said it works a lot better later in winter when SST's have cooled more and we can survive pac puke mixed in a bit more.  

[WxUSAF]

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Lately it's been problematic even in January/February, which is a huge issue since that look there is responsible for some of our biggest snowstorms historically, but as you said it works a lot better later in winter when SST's have cooled more and we can survive pac puke mixed in a bit more.  

Reminder to folks that we had a nice -NAO last December and we mostly torched. It can’t help us alone, especially outside of peak climo. 

[NorthArlington101]

On pivotal the new GFS ensembles has DC at an inch of snow. Maybe at [mention=1005]CAPE[/mention] can post the individual panels? It has trended more snowy from last night, then again it's over 200 hours out.

Peaked at it and it’s because one member shows a HECS - around 20” for DCA. Minus that all you can see is the potential for something.

[SnowenOutThere]

6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Peaked at it and it’s because one member shows a HECS - around 20” for DCA. Minus that all you can see is the potential for something.

Thought it might be that so wanted to see if it was, thanks for the update. 

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

^that extended GFS is closer to the bad scenario I described yesterday. Siberian PV merges with the piece over the eastern Arctic ocean and we’re cutoff from fresh cold air. -NAO there keeps us from torching but that’s not a cold pattern. Modified PAC air rarely is sufficient for snow for us before January. 

Yeah as advertised that is just the -NAO keeping us a tad on the cool side at best. If he wants to use an extended tool to WOOF over that period, he could make a better case using the 12z CFS depiction.

[midatlanticweather]

CPC is seeing some potential for some mountain snows.. slight chance - But something

[IronTy]

1 hour ago, nj2va said:

This will change but the upslope potential for the mountains next weekend on the 12z GFS OP is .

I don't foresee convincing my wife to do Thanksgiving in a tent on the mountain.  She really needs to pick up the pace so we can build that damn cabin. 

[BristowWx]

One would think the h5 anomaly look on GEFS is decent around Thanksgiving and just after.  If nothing else a torch seems less likely as our pants get tight.  

[NorthArlington101]

Not really a met for our area but Tomer is a good guy. Something to track at least, as others have said.

[WxUSAF]

Was just about to post that. Uncertainty the operative word. HH GFS has nothing except chilly dry weather. Post-Turkey pattern also showing uncertainty with some changes on the ensembles today. 

[WxUSAF]

If only it was after mid December or better yet in January…

 

[GATECH]

I know not on topic, but!!!!  Check out the game on espnU, western Michigan vs central Michigan…awesome snow globe game!  Wednesday MACtion!  

[Ralph Wiggum]

5 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Reminder to folks that we had a nice -NAO last December and we mostly torched. It can’t help us alone, especially outside of peak climo. 

Many of us had a lengthy discussion last year and iirc by the end we were in agreement the PAC/Western Canada/Western US is probably more important than just a -NAO. The latter can certainly slow things down and keep systems from completely cutting but without a cold air source due to a crud PAC, a -NAO is 'usually' not going to do it alone. It has happened before and can do so especially as we enter 2nd half winter where those wavelengths between shortwaves shrink.

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, BristowWx said:

One would think the h5 anomaly look on GEFS is decent around Thanksgiving and just after.  If nothing else a torch seems less likely as our pants get tight.  

We talking full tent mode here?

[poolz1]

7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Many of us had a lengthy discussion last year and iirc by the end we were in agreement the PAC/Western Canada/Western US is probably more important than just a -NAO. The latter can certainly slow things down and keep systems from completely cutting but without a cold air source due to a crud PAC, a -NAO is 'usually' not going to do it alone. It has happened before and can do so especially as we enter 2nd half winter where those wavelengths between shortwaves shrink.

This was just figured out last year?

[Heisy]

Shame this isn’t a few weeks later. As is almost close enough.


.

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z EPS….lots of misses but a few big hits in the Day 8-10 period.  At least Thanksgiving period is not a torch….

[SnowenOutThere]

0z Euro gives everyone a solid 2-4 inches of snow Black Friday. 0z Canadian has some ice then rain and 0z GFS gets close to a mixed event. 

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

0z Euro gives everyone a solid 2-4 inches of snow Black Friday. 0z Canadian has some ice then rain and 0z GFS gets close to a mixed event. 

The 0z Euro drops a strong clipper down over the amplifying western US ridge with coastal (re)development and snows on us.

 

 

[SnowenOutThere]

10 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The 0z Euro drops a strong clipper down over the amplifying western US ridge with coastal (re)development and snows on us.

 

 

Thought it looked off compared to the other globals, snow is snow though.

[CAPE]

EPS has a decent signal for a coastal low at this range. The implied initial lack of cold in place is an issue, but with HP over eastern Canada and a 50-50 vortex, the mechanism to feed colder air from the N/NE into a developing coastal low is there. 

 

[CAPE]

^Just in case some context was needed to go along with the invaluable snow maps posted in isolation above.

[brooklynwx99]

12 minutes ago, CAPE said:

EPS has a decent signal for a coastal low at this range. The implied initial lack of cold in place is an issue, but with HP over eastern Canada and a 50-50 vortex, the mechanism to feed colder air from the N/NE into a developing coastal low is there. 

 

the anticyclonic wave break over Hudson Bay will also force HP into SE Canada, so I'm not worried about a lack thereof

this is a really, really nice look. there would be ample cold air verbatim

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the anticyclonic wave break over Hudson Bay will also force HP into SE Canada, so I'm not worried about a lack thereof

this is a really, really nice look. there would be ample cold air verbatim

Its a nice h5 set up verbatim. We have the HP in place over eastern Canada, and low pressure off the Canadian Maritimes. Some decent cold air in place to our north that can feed into the west side of a low developing along/off the coast. A lot of details within all that, but at this juncture this period looks interesting. Down here climo is issue number one.

[Ralph Wiggum]

28 minutes ago, CAPE said:

EPS has a decent signal for a coastal low at this range. The implied initial lack of cold in place is an issue, but with HP over eastern Canada and a 50-50 vortex, the mechanism to feed colder air from the N/NE into a developing coastal low is there. 

 

I see the op has a shortwave leeside of the developing PNA ridge that breaks off and sinks in the SW eventually deep into Mexico. Is this feature prevalent on the eps as an entirely separate entity also or do the more menacing looks on the eps individual members keep that feature moving along the southern jet where it interacts with the clipper-like energy diving SSE? Just curious what role that may play and if the euro op is up to its bias of hanging SJ energy back and cutting off.

[CAPE]

5 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I see the op has a shortwave leeside of the developing PNA ridge that breaks off and sinks in the SW eventually deep into Mexico. Is this feature prevalent on the eps as an entirely separate entity also or do the more menacing looks on the eps individual members keep that feature moving along the southern jet where it interacts with the clipper-like energy diving SSE? Just curious what role that may play and if the euro op is up to its bias of hanging SJ energy back and cutting off.

That piece of energy is there on the EPS. It gets cut off underneath the ridge as it breaks similar to the op. Given the setup it appears that the main piece of energy will originate over the NPAC and drop in overtop the ridge. All sorts of variations among the 50 members and not worth poring over it all at this point.