Fall 2022 Medium-Long Range Discussion

[aldie 22]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

^that’ll do…seems like our current cold pattern holds into ~Thanksgiving or so, then we probably relax. If we reload (hi @leesburg 04!) by 10 December, we could be in good shape with conducive climo supporting snow events.

 

[CAPE]

CFS continues its run of complete weenieness for Dec.

[Maestrobjwa]

6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

CFS continues its run of complete weenieness for Dec.

Don't look at the screen, don't look at the screen, don't look at the screen...*looks at screen with an 1/8th of an eye open*

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Don't look at the screen, don't look at the screen, don't look at the screen...*looks at screen with an 1/8th of an eye open*

Proceed at your own risk lad. 

[IUsedToHateCold]

8 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Don't look at the screen, don't look at the screen, don't look at the screen...*looks at screen with an 1/8th of an eye open*

Holy…. 

[Solution Man]

21 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Proceed at your own risk lad. 

Page 66 para 6 in the weenie handbook 

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

CFS continues its run of complete weenieness for Dec.

Hey now, that’s NSFW. There’s kids here!

[snowfan]

[Ralph Wiggum]

Usual caveat applies....perfect modeled patterns rarely produce. We've seen this a few times the past few seasons. Archambault....as the pattern sets in and as the pattern relaxes. I mean dont get me wrong, I printed that CFS and am bringing it to bed tonight soooooo yeah.

[jayyy]

Love seeing WWAs and WSWatches up to our west and north. It’s just a matter of time before that’s us, ladies. Have a feeling this winter will come in with a bang and that we will see our first appreciable snowfall before meteorological winter begins - including BAL & DC. Bold, I know, but the look we’re seeing on models right now is reminiscent of some great patterns of past years.

In the shorter term - the window between next Saturday and Monday intrigues me a bit personally. While chances to materialize aren’t necessarily high due to climo, it’s certainly at least worth watching as we will have cold air entrenched and plenty of energy in the general vicinity. Wouldn’t be shocked whatsoever if areas west of the fall line saw some flakes between now and next weekend. Especially in PSU country.

PS - not sure if anyone else tracks early season lake effect, but I graduated from the university at Buffalo over a decade ago and tracking it has stuck with me all these year. Looks like Buffalo proper is about to get leveled. 2+ footer of paste for the downtown area into the northern suburban between Thursday night and Sunday looking pretty like. So awesome.


.

[CAPE]

 Discussion from NWS Buffalo

Anyone gonna chase?

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... ...CRIPPLING LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORM POSSIBLE THIS PERIOD... No change in available model output and overall H85 and H5 pattern for late this week into the weekend. There remains high confidence that a prolonged southwest flow lake effect event will take place during this period. A deep longwave trough...featuring a vertically stacked low in the vicinity of Hudson Bay...will keep a flow of seasonably cold air in place over the Lower Great Lakes through the weekend to GUARANTEE a lake response. The `formula` for significant lake snow will then come down to whether there is ample synoptic moisture to work with...and of course the direction of the H85 steering flow. Consensus of both ensemble and deterministic guidance packages are in fairly strong agreement of a southwest flow...but placement of accumulating snow bands will have to be further defined as the event nears. Continues to look like KBUF and KART metro areas and their northern suburbs (at least for a time) are favored.

This event has some historical precedence, with CIPS analogs comparing to Nov 20, 2000, when many became stranded in their vehicles...or the twin storms that made `Snow-vember` infamous with over five feet of snow? While at this point it is impossible to suggest the same for the upcoming event...it is something to keep in mind. Speaking of correlations...local studies from the KBUF office does show some stark similarities in the synoptic pattern for these larger events. The largest events have near stationary plumes of snow...but it is still way too early to get that detailed.

In the wake of a passing shortwave ridge on Thursday...subtle troughing embedded within in the larger scale longwave pattern will produce a deep southwest flow of cold air across Lakes Erie and Ontario. There is a suggestion that the flow will generally be 250- 260 Thursday evening...but with the lakes still relatively warm (nr of abv 10c)...that flow could back some 10 deg over Lake Erie. During the course of Thursday night and Friday...the flow is forecast to back a bit...and this will send well organized lake snow plumes across the Buffalo and Watertown metro areas and potentially into the northern suburbs. Again, placement of these bands will depend on the exact H85 flow...but a southwest (240-250) flow is being favored by guidance at this time. Given the expected presence of moisture up to arnd H7...snowfall rates of 1-2"/hr is becoming more plausible. Details still have to be refined, but there was enough signal and consistency in model guidance to issue winter storm watches Thursday evening through Sunday evening for a potential high impact, long duration lake snow event. If winds back further for longer period of time, then Niagara and Orleans counties would need to be put in a watch as well. Those details can be sorted out next couple days though.

While the steering flow will likely oscillate somewhat during the course of the weekend and into early next week...a cold southwest flow is mainly what is being shown by most of the guidance packages. This would keep lake snows in place to the northeast of both lakes with additional significant accumulations possible at times even beyond when initial watch ends.

[CAPE]

The Bills are home Sunday against the Browns.

[IronTy]

I miss lake effect snow.   

[katabatic]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

 Discussion from NWS Buffalo

Anyone gonna chase?

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... ...CRIPPLING LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORM POSSIBLE THIS PERIOD... No change in available model output and overall H85 and H5 pattern for late this week into the weekend. There remains high confidence that a prolonged southwest flow lake effect event will take place during this period. A deep longwave trough...featuring a vertically stacked low in the vicinity of Hudson Bay...will keep a flow of seasonably cold air in place over the Lower Great Lakes through the weekend to GUARANTEE a lake response. The `formula` for significant lake snow will then come down to whether there is ample synoptic moisture to work with...and of course the direction of the H85 steering flow. Consensus of both ensemble and deterministic guidance packages are in fairly strong agreement of a southwest flow...but placement of accumulating snow bands will have to be further defined as the event nears. Continues to look like KBUF and KART metro areas and their northern suburbs (at least for a time) are favored.

This event has some historical precedence, with CIPS analogs comparing to Nov 20, 2000, when many became stranded in their vehicles...or the twin storms that made `Snow-vember` infamous with over five feet of snow? While at this point it is impossible to suggest the same for the upcoming event...it is something to keep in mind. Speaking of correlations...local studies from the KBUF office does show some stark similarities in the synoptic pattern for these larger events. The largest events have near stationary plumes of snow...but it is still way too early to get that detailed.

In the wake of a passing shortwave ridge on Thursday...subtle troughing embedded within in the larger scale longwave pattern will produce a deep southwest flow of cold air across Lakes Erie and Ontario. There is a suggestion that the flow will generally be 250- 260 Thursday evening...but with the lakes still relatively warm (nr of abv 10c)...that flow could back some 10 deg over Lake Erie. During the course of Thursday night and Friday...the flow is forecast to back a bit...and this will send well organized lake snow plumes across the Buffalo and Watertown metro areas and potentially into the northern suburbs. Again, placement of these bands will depend on the exact H85 flow...but a southwest (240-250) flow is being favored by guidance at this time. Given the expected presence of moisture up to arnd H7...snowfall rates of 1-2"/hr is becoming more plausible. Details still have to be refined, but there was enough signal and consistency in model guidance to issue winter storm watches Thursday evening through Sunday evening for a potential high impact, long duration lake snow event. If winds back further for longer period of time, then Niagara and Orleans counties would need to be put in a watch as well. Those details can be sorted out next couple days though.

While the steering flow will likely oscillate somewhat during the course of the weekend and into early next week...a cold southwest flow is mainly what is being shown by most of the guidance packages. This would keep lake snows in place to the northeast of both lakes with additional significant accumulations possible at times even beyond when initial watch ends.

Yes (dead serious). I know I am not a known entity on this board but if anyone wants to join forces and stay at the same hotel, etc. PM me. Just bought a new 4WD and ready for an adventure. Chased the Boston storm in January and itching for an epic LES event. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

The Bills are home Sunday against the Browns.

And with 3'+ of snow on the ground, every seat will still be filled.

[nj2va]

P&C in the Buffalo area has “Heavy show and some thunder is also possible” in the forecast.  

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

 Discussion from NWS Buffalo

Anyone gonna chase?

 

I did a LES chase back in the mid 90s outside of Erie and it was epic....3-4' in 2 days. Strongly considering chasing this one. Not getting any younger.

[Eskimo Joe]

**ahem**

 

[CAPE]

10 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Usual caveat applies....perfect modeled patterns rarely produce. We've seen this a few times the past few seasons. Archambault....as the pattern sets in and as the pattern relaxes. I mean dont get me wrong, I printed that CFS and am bringing it to bed tonight soooooo yeah.

It would be more accurate to say that these 'perfect' patterns depicted on LR guidance rarely materialize. Ofc we know that, and in most cases we end up seeing winter storms in patterns that are not ideal.

[mappy]

13 hours ago, CAPE said:

2009 Redux.  We go!

pretty please

[Heisy]

I did a LES chase back in the mid 90s outside of Erie and it was epic....3-4' in 2 days. Strongly considering chasing this one. Not getting any younger.

I’m considering going! A LES monster is still on my bucket chase list. All depends on work, and how fast I think I can leave Buffalo for Philly.


.

[brooklynwx99]

what a gorgeous look here in the high latitudes. often times the higher heights near Scandinavia retrograde

yes, the Pacific isn't amazing yet, but it's reshuffling. the blocking showing up that strongly with a 50/50 and trough into Europe is legit

this is also a 5 day mean, which makes this even more impressive

[Ralph Wiggum]

29 minutes ago, CAPE said:

It would be more accurate to say that these 'perfect' patterns depicted on LR guidance rarely materialize. Ofc we know that, and in most cases we end up seeing winter storms in patterns that are not ideal.

Kind of what i meant to say....feel like when we chase the unicorn tho and it finally materializes ppl have expectations of wall to wall snow from start of pattern thru the breakdown but in reality we get a shot as pattern evolves then another as it subsequently breaks down with minor event chances sprinkled inbetween. Just playing the normal 'temper expectations' game.

[Ralph Wiggum]

11 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

what a gorgeous look here in the high latitudes. often times the higher heights near Scandinavia retrograde

yes, the Pacific isn't amazing yet, but it's reshuffling. the blocking showing up that strongly with a 50/50 and trough into Europe is legit

this is also a 5 day mean, which makes this even more impressive

My favorite look right there and im one of those that loves seeing -NAO developing from a retrograding Scandinavian ridge.  One of those things you look for in a locked in -NAO imo.

[brooklynwx99]

it's also quite easy to see how we get from the pattern at the end of the EPS to a pattern like December 2010. yes, I know there was bad luck for you guys down here, but I would take that pattern in the MA every single time

all that's really needed is for the blocking to mature and retrograde, which is something that blocking from Scandinavian ridging often does over the course of a few weeks. it takes some time, but it happens more often than not. yes, the Pacific looks "bad" with the -PNA, but it doesn't matter with a west-based -NAO and cross-polar flow established by the poleward Aleutian ridge

so, not to hype things up too much, but the chance for a Dec 2010-like pattern is becoming a bit higher looking at the general pattern progression

[SnowenOutThere]

18 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

all that's really needed is for the blocking to mature and retrograde, which is something that blocking from Scandinavian ridging often does over the course of a few weeks.

Would this give the pattern above extra staying power allowing it to last from sometime in early December into early January? 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

14 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Don't look at the screen, don't look at the screen, don't look at the screen...*looks at screen with an 1/8th of an eye open*

[BuffaloWeather]

4 hours ago, CAPE said:

 Discussion from NWS Buffalo

Anyone gonna chase?

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... ...CRIPPLING LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORM POSSIBLE THIS PERIOD... No change in available model output and overall H85 and H5 pattern for late this week into the weekend. There remains high confidence that a prolonged southwest flow lake effect event will take place during this period. A deep longwave trough...featuring a vertically stacked low in the vicinity of Hudson Bay...will keep a flow of seasonably cold air in place over the Lower Great Lakes through the weekend to GUARANTEE a lake response. The `formula` for significant lake snow will then come down to whether there is ample synoptic moisture to work with...and of course the direction of the H85 steering flow. Consensus of both ensemble and deterministic guidance packages are in fairly strong agreement of a southwest flow...but placement of accumulating snow bands will have to be further defined as the event nears. Continues to look like KBUF and KART metro areas and their northern suburbs (at least for a time) are favored.

This event has some historical precedence, with CIPS analogs comparing to Nov 20, 2000, when many became stranded in their vehicles...or the twin storms that made `Snow-vember` infamous with over five feet of snow? While at this point it is impossible to suggest the same for the upcoming event...it is something to keep in mind. Speaking of correlations...local studies from the KBUF office does show some stark similarities in the synoptic pattern for these larger events. The largest events have near stationary plumes of snow...but it is still way too early to get that detailed.

In the wake of a passing shortwave ridge on Thursday...subtle troughing embedded within in the larger scale longwave pattern will produce a deep southwest flow of cold air across Lakes Erie and Ontario. There is a suggestion that the flow will generally be 250- 260 Thursday evening...but with the lakes still relatively warm (nr of abv 10c)...that flow could back some 10 deg over Lake Erie. During the course of Thursday night and Friday...the flow is forecast to back a bit...and this will send well organized lake snow plumes across the Buffalo and Watertown metro areas and potentially into the northern suburbs. Again, placement of these bands will depend on the exact H85 flow...but a southwest (240-250) flow is being favored by guidance at this time. Given the expected presence of moisture up to arnd H7...snowfall rates of 1-2"/hr is becoming more plausible. Details still have to be refined, but there was enough signal and consistency in model guidance to issue winter storm watches Thursday evening through Sunday evening for a potential high impact, long duration lake snow event. If winds back further for longer period of time, then Niagara and Orleans counties would need to be put in a watch as well. Those details can be sorted out next couple days though.

While the steering flow will likely oscillate somewhat during the course of the weekend and into early next week...a cold southwest flow is mainly what is being shown by most of the guidance packages. This would keep lake snows in place to the northeast of both lakes with additional significant accumulations possible at times even beyond when initial watch ends.

I got a spare bedroom if anyone needs to crash. I believe I will be south of the hardest hit area this time. Might go stay at my dads house near the airport. Winds look primarily out of the SW for majority of this event which would land all of metro buffalo in the crosshairs. The last time I saw crippling from Buf NWS was from Nov 2014 where I got 88" in 3 days. 

[Maestrobjwa]

2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

it's also quite easy to see how we get from the pattern at the end of the EPS to a pattern like December 2010. yes, I know there was bad luck for you guys down here, but I would take that pattern in the MA every single time

all that's really needed is for the blocking to mature and retrograde, which is something that blocking from Scandinavian ridging often does over the course of a few weeks. it takes some time, but it happens more often than not. yes, the Pacific looks "bad" with the -PNA, but it doesn't matter with a west-based -NAO and cross-polar flow established by the poleward Aleutian ridge

so, not to hype things up too much, but the chance for a Dec 2010-like pattern is becoming a bit higher looking at the general pattern progression

You're not allowed to mention that down here...Oh, and that was a nina and a Miller B! If we ain't got nothin' to tucky-tucky something to the coast on time, I'll pass thank you...

[CAPE]

8 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

You're not allowed to mention that down here...Oh, and that was a nina and a Miller B! If we ain't got nothin' to tucky-tucky something to the coast on time, I'll pass thank you...

That was a super close miss for I-95. It worked out pretty well for places east, esp the immediate coast. Hard to do better than that setup in a Nina. Always take that pattern and let the chips fall.