SnowenOutThere Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 On 11/13/2022 at 7:23 PM, CAPE said: Yes climo is still a legit issue. The Euro has been colder during that window than the GFS, so we will see. Expand On 11/13/2022 at 7:51 PM, CAPE said: CMC has impressive cold too, but no storm. Expand That’s my main concern, with a crazy -epo I think suppression is the main villain of the story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 13, 2022 Author Share Posted November 13, 2022 Aww the daily post limited member from another sub is going weenie all my posts now because I called him out for shitting up the winter thread. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 On 11/13/2022 at 7:35 PM, WxUSAF said: That’s some legit cold air (for November) before and especially after that storm. I’m going to look back at the last 10-15 Novembers and see where upper 10s/low 20s would rank if we manage to get that cold. Expand On 11/13/2022 at 7:51 PM, CAPE said: CMC has impressive cold too, but no storm. Expand BWI minimum November temps going back to 2009. So I think there’s a chance we get in the colder tier (23 and under). Teens at BWI would be quite impressive. 27, 25, 22, 24,21, 23, 28, 18, 19, 25, 26, 25,28 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 13, 2022 Author Share Posted November 13, 2022 On 11/13/2022 at 8:38 PM, SnowenOutThere said: That’s my main concern, with a crazy -epo I think suppression is the main villain of the story. Expand Idk, kinda hard to be too concerned about any outcome given we're still in November. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 On 11/13/2022 at 8:43 PM, CAPE said: Idk, kinda hard to be too concerned about any outcome given we're still in November. Expand Agree. Any cold is good cold…cold is not promised to anyone. I really want to wear a sweater on Thanksgiving while carving the Turkey like in the movies. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 13, 2022 Author Share Posted November 13, 2022 On 11/13/2022 at 8:46 PM, BristowWx said: Agree. Any cold is good cold…cold is not promised to anyone. I really want to wear a sweater on Thanksgiving while carving the Turkey like in the movies. Expand It looks chilly going forward and overall, despite the recent warmth, its been a very enjoyable Fall. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 On 11/13/2022 at 7:49 PM, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Did anyone else notice the 2 nor'easters in the long range euro? One is on the warm side and one was riding the freezing line. Expand I noticed that. 12z gfs only showed the warm one and no second storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 Wonder where snowman19 is .? Hmmm, wonder what he's thinking of that big EPO Ridge that just shouldn't be so far east according to his belief regarding the NPAC SST Profile. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 On 11/13/2022 at 10:35 PM, Daniel Boone said: Wonder where snowman19 is .? Hmmm, wonder what he's thinking of that big EPO Ridge that just shouldn't be so far east according to his belief regarding the NPAC SST Profile. Lol. Expand He’s combing through Twitter to find something to support his bullshit. 5 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 On 11/13/2022 at 10:35 PM, Daniel Boone said: Wonder where snowman19 is .? Hmmm, wonder what he's thinking of that big EPO Ridge that just shouldn't be so far east according to his belief regarding the NPAC SST Profile. Lol. Expand NYC subforum giving out weenies 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 14, 2022 Author Share Posted November 14, 2022 On 11/13/2022 at 10:35 PM, Daniel Boone said: Wonder where snowman19 is .? Hmmm, wonder what he's thinking of that big EPO Ridge that just shouldn't be so far east according to his belief regarding the NPAC SST Profile. Lol. Expand He can only make 5 posts a day because he sucks. He has been here revenge weenie 'liking' though. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 14, 2022 Author Share Posted November 14, 2022 On 11/13/2022 at 11:26 PM, MJO812 said: NYC subforum giving out weenies Expand A post limited weenie like him should be prohibited from doing that. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 18z GFS was lulz 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 On 11/14/2022 at 12:08 AM, yoda said: 18z GFS was lulz Expand Go on.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 Look at this. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 14, 2022 Author Share Posted November 14, 2022 EPS suggesting a coastal low for Sunday-Monday. GEFS keeps any wave further offshore. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 On 11/14/2022 at 12:16 PM, CAPE said: EPS suggesting a coastal low for Sunday-Monday. GEFS keeps any wave further offshore. Expand https://giphy.com/gifs/giphyqa-zk0zTXQY5ukCs 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 On 11/14/2022 at 12:06 AM, CAPE said: A post limited weenie like him should be prohibited from doing that. Expand I take insults from some people as compliments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 14, 2022 Author Share Posted November 14, 2022 On 11/14/2022 at 4:41 PM, psuhoffman said: I take insults from some people as compliments. Expand Not really an insult. More a shit poster abusing/misusing the weenie to lash out. The weenie has meaning. It needs to be protected. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 GFS and Icon say Saturday is the coldest morning. GGEM and Euro say Sunday. GGEM is kooky cold (it has low level temp issues), but euro is quite chilly also with widespread low 20s. Idea of a late weekend storm looks dead for now. On a different note, didn’t tropical tidbits have Euro weekly last year? I don’t see it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 On 11/14/2022 at 6:50 PM, WxUSAF said: On a different note, didn’t tropical tidbits have Euro weekly last year? I don’t see it now. Expand Not from what I remember, no. Only the EPS, and the ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 Pulled from the SNE forum... I know it may be centric to them... but still good disco On 11/14/2022 at 1:42 PM, ORH_wxman said: You can see the AO/NAO trying to ramp up on the EPS. We lose the PNA ridging out west but at least we still have cross-polar flow via the -WPO. This pattern isn't super cold, but it's not warm either. Prob a lot of chances in that type of pattern if it holds into December. Expand On 11/14/2022 at 2:50 PM, brooklynwx99 said: this is actually very similar to the first half of Dec 2010, believe it or not the anomalies are of a much higher magnitude in Dec 2010, but the general waveform is almost a dead ringer Expand 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 14, 2022 Author Share Posted November 14, 2022 On 11/14/2022 at 8:40 PM, yoda said: Pulled from the SNE forum... I know it may be centric to them... but still good disco Expand It's not really centric to them, and the potentially favorable pattern depicted on LR/extended guidance going forward has been discussed quite a bit in this thread as well. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 14, 2022 Author Share Posted November 14, 2022 On 11/14/2022 at 6:50 PM, WxUSAF said: On a different note, didn’t tropical tidbits have Euro weekly last year? I don’t see it now. Expand Snapshot of the Latest edition for mid Dec- 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 ^that’ll do…seems like our current cold pattern holds into ~Thanksgiving or so, then we probably relax. If we reload (hi @leesburg 04!) by 10 December, we could be in good shape with conducive climo supporting snow events. 8 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 14, 2022 Author Share Posted November 14, 2022 On 11/14/2022 at 9:03 PM, WxUSAF said: ^that’ll do…seems like our current cold pattern holds into ~Thanksgiving or so, then we probably relax. If we reload (hi @leesburg 04!) by 10 December, we could be in good shape with conducive climo supporting snow events. Expand The current cold period is impressive for Nov, but we suck at snow at this juncture. The RELOAD looks to be timed during a period where we suck a little less at snow. Lets go!! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 On 11/14/2022 at 9:14 PM, CAPE said: The current cold period is impressive for Nov, but we suck at snow at this juncture. The RELOAD looks to be timed during a period where we suck a little less at snow. Lets go!! Expand 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 On 11/14/2022 at 8:59 PM, CAPE said: Snapshot of the Latest edition for mid Dec- Expand And I see a hint of a split flow pattern with a NAO block. If this holds, we can potentially cash in mid-Dec. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 On 11/14/2022 at 9:03 PM, WxUSAF said: ^that’ll do…seems like our current cold pattern holds into ~Thanksgiving or so, then we probably relax. If we reload (hi @leesburg 04!) by 10 December, we could be in good shape with conducive climo supporting snow events. Expand I'll try not to use the word "reload" more than once for the winter. Oh wait... shit. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 14, 2022 Author Share Posted November 14, 2022 On 11/14/2022 at 10:46 PM, Terpeast said: And I see a hint of a split flow pattern with a NAO block. If this holds, we can potentially cash in mid-Dec. Expand 2009 Redux. We go! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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