Fall 2022 Medium-Long Range Discussion

[ravensrule]

5 hours ago, stormtracker said:

What up peeps.  No Nicole rainfall thread.  Yall slackin

Glad you're alive. Welcome back. 

[stormtracker]

41 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

Glad you're alive. Welcome back. 

Barely.  My work(board of elections) is a bit busy today for some reason. 

[StormchaserChuck!]

This is what I have been saying the whole time. This is the pattern. 

That we have a +NAO is better for snow right now. Fortunately, the NAO is more forecasted to be positive than negative for the Winter. The 10mb PV (+QBO) may negate this as a good factor though. 

[StormchaserChuck!]

2 hours ago, stormtracker said:

Barely.  My work(board of elections) is a bit busy today for some reason. 

boo hoo we have '95 coming up as a good analog for Dec, possibly. +NAO looks weak on models holding, so it will be interesting.. Biggest difference between this year and '95 is the NAO.

[Daniel Boone]

2 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

boo hoo we have '95 coming up as a good analog for Dec, possibly. +NAO looks weak on models holding, so it will be interesting.. Biggest difference between this year and '95 is the NAO.

Too bad QBO is rising or would possibly be a great match. 

[StormchaserChuck!]

9 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Too bad QBO is rising or would possibly be a great match. 

The last 3 +QBO/La Nina's have been -NAO though. I don't know how 2 strong steering currents to the PV could displace so much at 500mb without 10mb warming.. Pacific would neutralize/become unfavorable I think if NAO goes negative this Winter. .. or maybe the whole thing just washes as has been the trend since 2013,2016,2018,..etc

[Daniel Boone]

43 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

The last 3 +QBO/La Nina's have been -NAO though. I don't know how 2 strong steering currents to the PV could displace so much at 500mb without 10mb warming.. Pacific would neutralize/become unfavorable I think if NAO goes negative this Winter. .. or maybe the whole thing just washes as has been the trend since 2013,2016,2018,..etc

Yeah, good points you brought up Chuck... Interesting. 

[NorthArlington101]

GFS might be teeing something up around Day 8… not smart enough to forecast what it’ll do but it looks interesting

[NorthArlington101]

GFS might be teeing something up around Day 8… not smart enough to forecast what it’ll do but it looks interesting

Not really that close haha but a mix for the mountains. Warming up for mediocre winter analysis.

[StormchaserChuck!]

Yeah, this looks good

 

I made a thread for the threat earlier, but it was deleted. 

[CAPE]

Pretty chilly next week coast to coast.

[SnowenOutThere]

8 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

I made a thread for the threat earlier, but it was deleted. 

 Its November 9th

[NorthArlington101]

10 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

GFS might be teeing something up around Day 8… not smart enough to forecast what it’ll do but it looks interesting

Nothing about the 06z? Better result at Day 7 with a similar set-up -- first flakes+ for favored spots.

 

00z EURO has the first snowstorm for the mountains but little for anyone else. EPS members have a handful that are decent and the control is an event for those out west.

[mattie g]

I'm a little annoyed that this is showing up now. If this were just a few weeks from now I think we'd be a bit more excited.

[CAPE]

Just an opinion and not directed at anyone in particular, but it would be nice if the snow maps could be posted in the digital snow thread. They become marginally useful with additional synoptic discussion when there is an actual threat in the short range. Otherwise we will see discussion threads become cluttered with random snow maps every model cycle.

[midatlanticweather]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Just an opinion and not directed at anyone in particular, but it would be nice if the snow maps could be posted in the digital snow thread. They become marginally useful with additional synoptic discussion when there is an actual threat in the short range. Otherwise we will see discussion threads become cluttered with random snow maps every model cycle.

Being within a week seems just beyond fantasy land and some speculation time. The maps help get a sense of what the models think. I like them for the shortcut of seeing them. BUT, I do get worried about the responses that then cloud with the same graphic again and again. 

[NorthArlington101]

9 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Just an opinion and not directed at anyone in particular, but it would be nice if the snow maps could be posted in the digital snow thread. They become marginally useful with additional synoptic discussion when there is an actual threat in the short range. Otherwise we will see discussion threads become cluttered with random snow maps every model cycle.

 

6 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Being within a week seems just beyond fantasy land and some speculation time. The maps help get a sense of what the models think. I like them for the shortcut of seeing them. BUT, I do get worried about the responses that then cloud with the same graphic again and again. 

Both very fair -- the reason I choose to post the snow maps here vs. there is that I think posting them here starts a discussion on whether the threat has any merit, whereas posting them in the digital snow thread dooms them to never really be discussed. It may be generous to call the Day 7/8 storm a threat, but the period has been showing up for ~4 days as a window for some kind of storm, so what I'm *hoping* to do is spark discussion of the period... I'm a sicko who enjoys the leadup more than the actual event, unless it's a blizzard.

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, midatlanticweather said:

Being within a week seems just beyond fantasy land and some speculation time. The maps help get a sense of what the models think. I like them for the shortcut of seeing them. BUT, I do get worried about the responses that then cloud with the same graphic again and again. 

I made a post about the potential for next week a few days ago using h5 from a global ens mean. At 7 days out just posting a snow map without any supporting discussion of the setup, well, that's not really very useful in a discussion thread. And yes, it will quickly cascade into a race to see who can be first to post a snow map for the next model cycle. Meh.

[CAPE]

With the -EPO/WPO getting established, cold air will be able to increase/expand in our source region via cross polar flow. Follow the streamlines.

[Eskimo Joe]

 

[mattie g]

4 hours ago, mattie g said:

I'm a little annoyed that this is showing up now. If this were just a few weeks from now I think we'd be a bit more excited.

Dude...

[CAPE]

Still a ways off, but the way the pattern appears to be evolving/progressing on the latest LR ens guidance, next weekend into early the following week might feature the best chance for a winter type storm, with possibly several waves riding along the boundary during that period. Climo is the biggest problem ofc. This look a month later would be more interesting.

 

[mattie g]

5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Still a ways off, but the way the pattern appears to be evolving/progressing on the latest LR ens guidance, next weekend into early the following week might feature the best chance for a winter type storm, with possibly several waves riding along the boundary during that period. Climo is the biggest problem ofc. This look a month later would be more interesting.

 

As I've said before, I'm getting a little annoyed by this look now .

If this were just 2-3 weeks later (a month would be even better), we'd be all over it. I just don't want this to have happened just too early in the season, so hopefully we can have this look reload as we get into December proper.

[brooklynwx99]

7 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Still a ways off, but the way the pattern appears to be evolving/progressing on the latest LR ens guidance, next weekend into early the following week might feature the best chance for a winter type storm, with possibly several waves riding along the boundary during that period. Climo is the biggest problem ofc. This look a month later would be more interesting.

 

there will be a 7-10 day relaxation around Thanksgiving due to the Pacific jet retracting, which is pretty well modeled

once the jet extends late month into early December (you can see it strengthen late on the EPS here), this becomes a pretty classic look as the Aleutian low strengthens, AK ridging builds poleward, and the Scandinavian ridging retrogrades towards Greenland. the 50/50 and -NAO dipole is already beginning to show up

[midatlanticweather]

Not 0%! 

 

[midatlanticweather]

GFS Set up seems just off.. many other factors seem to dampen any ideas of snow later next week. Not that I was counting on it, but we have a nice, wet, nor'easter like set up but missing ingredients! Not super cold, no blocking, etc.. a perfect low swing would have to have been the case, and that is unlikely. I was liking the 500MB though.. Climo is also an obvious factor, a little later may have been a little fun.. maybe..others can tell me other things wrong with this picture! 

 

[WxUSAF]

I think there’s been enough modeling to say that chances of early season snow is above (well above?) normal for the D6-14 period. Still not even a 50/50 chance given climo, but the pattern is nice with the strong -EPO providing cold air and the remnant SE ridge setting the storm track near us or to our south. Bummer we’re not getting this 1 month (or even 2 weeks) later. 

[Eskimo Joe]

@brooklynwx99 I love your posts. Thank you for giving hope to us low landers.

[CAPE]

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

I think there’s been enough modeling to say that chances of early season snow is above (well above?) normal for the D6-14 period. Still not even a 50/50 chance given climo, but the pattern is nice with the strong -EPO providing cold air and the remnant SE ridge setting the storm track near us or to our south. Bummer we’re not getting this 1 month (or even 2 weeks) later. 

The pattern as advertised is decent enough, with some timing/luck ofc. Beyond that, it's mostly just too soon outside of the highlands. Looks like a bit of a relaxation for the end of the month, so hopefully we get another shot around mid December. I never expect snow in Dec, but it would be nice for a change.

[Terpeast]

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The pattern as advertised is decent enough, with some timing/luck ofc. Beyond that, it's mostly just too soon outside of the highlands. Looks like a bit of a relaxation for the end of the month, so hopefully we get another shot around mid December. I never expect snow in Dec, but it would be nice for a change.

Agreed. Not expecting anything east of the blue ridge anytime soon, but if we get another shot after a reload in December, I think we will get something.