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Fall 2022 Medium-Long Range Discussion


CAPE
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9 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Too bad QBO is rising or would possibly be a great match. 

The last 3 +QBO/La Nina's have been -NAO though. I don't know how 2 strong steering currents to the PV could displace so much at 500mb without 10mb warming.. Pacific would neutralize/become unfavorable I think if NAO goes negative this Winter. .. or maybe the whole thing just washes as has been the trend since 2013,2016,2018,..etc

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43 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

The last 3 +QBO/La Nina's have been -NAO though. I don't know how 2 strong steering currents to the PV could displace so much at 500mb without 10mb warming.. Pacific would neutralize/become unfavorable I think if NAO goes negative this Winter. .. or maybe the whole thing just washes as has been the trend since 2013,2016,2018,..etc

Yeah, good points you brought up Chuck... Interesting. 

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10 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

GFS might be teeing something up around Day 8… not smart enough to forecast what it’ll do but it looks interesting

Nothing about the 06z? Better result at Day 7 with a similar set-up -- first flakes+ for favored spots.

1668610800-t1m8WF6kZIk.png

 

00z EURO has the first snowstorm for the mountains but little for anyone else. EPS members have a handful that are decent and the control is an event for those out west.

1668600000-5QpL5VfVViI.png

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Just an opinion and not directed at anyone in particular, but it would be nice if the snow maps could be posted in the digital snow thread. They become marginally useful with additional synoptic discussion when there is an actual threat in the short range. Otherwise we will see discussion threads become cluttered with random snow maps every model cycle.

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1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Just an opinion and not directed at anyone in particular, but it would be nice if the snow maps could be posted in the digital snow thread. They become marginally useful with additional synoptic discussion when there is an actual threat in the short range. Otherwise we will see discussion threads become cluttered with random snow maps every model cycle.

Being within a week seems just beyond fantasy land and some speculation time. The maps help get a sense of what the models think. I like them for the shortcut of seeing them. BUT, I do get worried about the responses that then cloud with the same graphic again and again. 

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9 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Just an opinion and not directed at anyone in particular, but it would be nice if the snow maps could be posted in the digital snow thread. They become marginally useful with additional synoptic discussion when there is an actual threat in the short range. Otherwise we will see discussion threads become cluttered with random snow maps every model cycle.

 

6 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Being within a week seems just beyond fantasy land and some speculation time. The maps help get a sense of what the models think. I like them for the shortcut of seeing them. BUT, I do get worried about the responses that then cloud with the same graphic again and again. 

Both very fair -- the reason I choose to post the snow maps here vs. there is that I think posting them here starts a discussion on whether the threat has any merit, whereas posting them in the digital snow thread dooms them to never really be discussed. It may be generous to call the Day 7/8 storm a threat, but the period has been showing up for ~4 days as a window for some kind of storm, so what I'm *hoping* to do is spark discussion of the period... I'm a sicko who enjoys the leadup more than the actual event, unless it's a blizzard.

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1 minute ago, midatlanticweather said:

Being within a week seems just beyond fantasy land and some speculation time. The maps help get a sense of what the models think. I like them for the shortcut of seeing them. BUT, I do get worried about the responses that then cloud with the same graphic again and again. 

I made a post about the potential for next week a few days ago using h5 from a global ens mean. At 7 days out just posting a snow map without any supporting discussion of the setup, well, that's not really very useful in a discussion thread. And yes, it will quickly cascade into a race to see who can be first to post a snow map for the next model cycle. Meh.

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Still a ways off, but the way the pattern appears to be evolving/progressing on the latest LR ens guidance, next weekend into early the following week might feature the best chance for a winter type storm, with possibly several waves riding along the boundary during that period. Climo is the biggest problem ofc. This look a month later would be more interesting.

1668859200-PmSXL1KjJ3k.png

 

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5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Still a ways off, but the way the pattern appears to be evolving/progressing on the latest LR ens guidance, next weekend into early the following week might feature the best chance for a winter type storm, with possibly several waves riding along the boundary during that period. Climo is the biggest problem ofc. This look a month later would be more interesting.

1668859200-PmSXL1KjJ3k.png

 

As I've said before, I'm getting a little annoyed by this look now :lol:.

If this were just 2-3 weeks later (a month would be even better), we'd be all over it. I just don't want this to have happened just too early in the season, so hopefully we can have this look reload as we get into December proper.

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7 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Still a ways off, but the way the pattern appears to be evolving/progressing on the latest LR ens guidance, next weekend into early the following week might feature the best chance for a winter type storm, with possibly several waves riding along the boundary during that period. Climo is the biggest problem ofc. This look a month later would be more interesting.

1668859200-PmSXL1KjJ3k.png

 

there will be a 7-10 day relaxation around Thanksgiving due to the Pacific jet retracting, which is pretty well modeled

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-npac_wide-uv200_stream-1667995200-1668729600-1669291200-10.thumb.gif.8869991ee0c9acf641a961f041a54536.gif

once the jet extends late month into early December (you can see it strengthen late on the EPS here), this becomes a pretty classic look as the Aleutian low strengthens, AK ridging builds poleward, and the Scandinavian ridging retrogrades towards Greenland. the 50/50 and -NAO dipole is already beginning to show up

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-9291200.thumb.png.4f972932088e18a7d8fd12b517298696.png

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GFS Set up seems just off.. many other factors seem to dampen any ideas of snow later next week. Not that I was counting on it, but we have a nice, wet, nor'easter like set up but missing ingredients! Not super cold, no blocking, etc.. a perfect low swing would have to have been the case, and that is unlikely. I was liking the 500MB though.. Climo is also an obvious factor, a little later may have been a little fun.. maybe..others can tell me other things wrong with this picture! 

image.thumb.png.17e4972c8f20b027890fac0304218079.png

 

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I think there’s been enough modeling to say that chances of early season snow is above (well above?) normal for the D6-14 period. Still not even a 50/50 chance given climo, but the pattern is nice with the strong -EPO providing cold air and the remnant SE ridge setting the storm track near us or to our south. Bummer we’re not getting this 1 month (or even 2 weeks) later. 

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2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

I think there’s been enough modeling to say that chances of early season snow is above (well above?) normal for the D6-14 period. Still not even a 50/50 chance given climo, but the pattern is nice with the strong -EPO providing cold air and the remnant SE ridge setting the storm track near us or to our south. Bummer we’re not getting this 1 month (or even 2 weeks) later. 

The pattern as advertised is decent enough, with some timing/luck ofc. Beyond that, it's mostly just too soon outside of the highlands. Looks like a bit of a relaxation for the end of the month, so hopefully we get another shot around mid December. I never expect snow in Dec, but it would be nice for a change.

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4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The pattern as advertised is decent enough, with some timing/luck ofc. Beyond that, it's mostly just too soon outside of the highlands. Looks like a bit of a relaxation for the end of the month, so hopefully we get another shot around mid December. I never expect snow in Dec, but it would be nice for a change.

Agreed. Not expecting anything east of the blue ridge anytime soon, but if we get another shot after a reload in December, I think we will get something. 

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