Terpeast Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 2 hours ago, CAPE said: Could this be the first 'period of interest' for something wintry? Climo is hostile so a longshot for the lowlands, but a pretty interesting look as advertised. Amplified longwave pattern, anomalous cold already in place for much of the US, with more NS energy dropping in and an eastbound southern disturbance in the central US. GFS op has been giving some digital snow around the 18th in recent runs. Something to keep an eye on mostly for the western highlands. It’s possible, not holding my breath. First, the airmass has to be cold enough and climo is not there yet. Second, it would have to thread the needle since we’re not getting any help from the NAO (it’s positive on that map) I think we get a cold rain and mix/snow in the mountains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 7, 2022 Author Share Posted November 7, 2022 6 minutes ago, Terpeast said: It’s possible, not holding my breath. First, the airmass has to be cold enough and climo is not there yet. Second, it would have to thread the needle since we’re not getting any help from the NAO (it’s positive on that map) I think we get a cold rain and mix/snow in the mountains Lots of caveats(as always), and I mentioned the number one issue right up front. If that EPO ridge is as amped as advertised, there will be wave breaking and TPV bowling balls rotating south, but yes would need some timing, esp with no NAO help to slow the progression. Low chances for frozen corridor points east, should there be a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 59 minutes ago, CAPE said: Lots of caveats(as always), and I mentioned the number one issue right up front. If that EPO ridge is as amped as advertised, there will be wave breaking and TPV bowling balls rotating south, but yes would need some timing, esp with no NAO help to slow the progression. Low chances for frozen corridor points east, should there be a storm. If such a system were to be relatively weak, a PV lobe could essentially act as a temporary block while also providing colder air. Get on the northern end of the precip and you never know - we could get a couple hours of sloppy flakes and a wet mulch-topper. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 7, 2022 Author Share Posted November 7, 2022 7 minutes ago, mattie g said: If such a system were to be relatively weak, a PV lobe could essentially act as a temporary block while also providing colder air. Get on the northern end of the precip and you never know - we could get a couple hours of sloppy flakes and a wet mulch-topper. Yeah that's the timing aspect. NS energy dropping in could phase with a wave, it could come in overtop/just out in front and dampen it, suppress it, etc. A vorticity lobe moving off the Canadian Maritimes would act as a 50-50, but without an actual block to the north it would be a transient feature. That's why we love the 2009-10 pattern so much- the ideal synoptic set up with HL blocking plus the active southern stream made timing less critical. Was just a matter of waiting for a healthy wave to come along and track underneath. Maybe we finally get that again next winter. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 21 minutes ago, CAPE said: Yeah that's the timing aspect. NS energy dropping in could phase with a wave, it could come in overtop/just out in front and dampen it, suppress it, etc. A vorticity lobe moving off the Canadian Maritimes would act as a 50-50, but without an actual block to the north it would be a transient feature. That's why we love the 2009-10 pattern so much- the ideal synoptic set up with HL blocking plus the active southern stream made timing less critical. Was just a matter of waiting for a healthy wave to come along and track underneath. Maybe we finally get that again next winter. So many moving parts, which is always tricky, no matter where you are. Potential is there with that big EPO ridge, but it's more of a fun-to-watch scenario with climo so heavily against us at this point. Agreed on 2009-2010. It was just too easy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 7, 2022 Author Share Posted November 7, 2022 31 minutes ago, mattie g said: So many moving parts, which is always tricky, no matter where you are. Potential is there with that big EPO ridge, but it's more of a fun-to-watch scenario with climo so heavily against us at this point. Agreed on 2009-2010. It was just too easy. It distorted expectations for some for awhile. Ji still hasn't recovered. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 GFS is pretty interesting at Day 8 — if we’d had the past few days of model runs mid-winter this place might be buzzing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 WB 18Z GFS, shift west this run with heavy rains throughout DMV late week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 15 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: GFS is pretty interesting at Day 8 — if we’d had the past few days of model runs mid-winter this place might be buzzing. I thought so too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 15 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: GFS is pretty interesting at Day 8 — if we’d had the past few days of model runs mid-winter this place might be buzzing. If it was 2-3 weeks later I’d be getting interested. Alas… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 17 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: If it was 2-3 weeks later I’d be getting interested. Alas… As is that would be a good hit for the highlands. Hopefully the supposed pattern were heading into sticks around for a while. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 7, 2022 Author Share Posted November 7, 2022 CFS continues to look pretty weenie with the pattern progression heading into early Dec. Love seeing those +height anomalies in the HL. 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 00z ICOn brings it way west over western PA. Almost a Francis track, would be more of a tornado threat than a flood threat if it verified. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 GFS is well west of 18Z also. Trend is towards a faster capture and northward acceleration. GFS still hits us with a lot of rain, but only cause a piece of the low hands back over the carolinas. This is suspect given the trend the last few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 14 hours ago, WxUSAF said: If it was 2-3 weeks later I’d be getting interested. Alas… Imagine it happening a month later. A nice cold shot followed relatively soon after by a low running from the Gulf -> Wilmington, NC -> 70 miles east of Norfolk -> just off of Cape Cod. What a Christmas scene-setter that could be! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 Day 10 Euro looks interesting... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 48 minutes ago, yoda said: Day 10 Euro looks interesting... The Control run pulls off the storm... just for the lolz: Maybe 10/51 members have something "trackable" at that range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 1 hour ago, mattie g said: Imagine it happening a month later. A nice cold shot followed relatively soon after by a low running from the Gulf -> Wilmington, NC -> 70 miles east of Norfolk -> just off of Cape Cod. What a Christmas scene-setter that could be! Hope springs eternal. Just thinking out loud...been here 18yrs now and I don't think we've ever had a white Christmas. 2009 was close but it was a sloppy foggy mess by Christmas. We were snowshoe backpacking at the Dolly Sods so it was plenty cold and snowy there but not back here at home in Calvert. One day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 What up peeps. No Nicole rainfall thread. Yall slackin 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: What up peeps. No Nicole rainfall thread. Yall slackin @CAPE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 @mattie gFairfax just closed schools for Nicole. 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: @mattie gFairfax just closed schools for Nicole. You mistook the closure. It was for Veterans Day. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 2 hours ago, yoda said: Day 10 Euro looks interesting... Yeah, euro starting to come around. Hmm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 GFS looks interesting around the same time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: @mattie gFairfax just closed schools for Nicole. They probably would in all honesty if it wasn't already a day off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 8 minutes ago, stormtracker said: GFS looks interesting around the same time. GFS gets close but ultimately the second piece of energy drops in too late and kicks out the low to the east, the southern stream also needs to become a bit more amped. Without a -NAO (and it being in November) we are gonna need to thread the needle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 9 minutes ago, stormtracker said: GFS looks interesting around the same time. That's a 2-4" event just a few weeks from now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 8, 2022 Author Share Posted November 8, 2022 1 hour ago, George BM said: @CAPE I mentioned it in banter thinking someone else would start it lol. My interest was mainly to declutter this thread a bit. Go for it my man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: I mentioned it in banter thinking someone else would start it lol. My interest was mainly to declutter this thread a bit. Go for it my man. I made it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: GFS looks interesting around the same time. Too early in the season to queue up the "Jaws" music I suppose...but here's hoping you have many opportunities to do so as we get into winter!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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