Fall 2022 Medium-Long Range Discussion

[WxUSAF]

54 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Pretty good agreement for some sort of a workable pattern evolving over the next several weeks. Main issue would be climo ofc. December snow is highly desirable and romanticized, but not very often realized in the MA lowlands.

This is always the dilemma with good patterns in late November and early December. It’s still more apt to produce cold rain due to climo. I like seeing a good pattern arrive closer to mid December. We often get a can-kick with pattern changes as models rush it, so if we torch for 10-14 days, then maybe we have some level of transition for another 2 weeks, maybe we can get something good to start December. 

[Terpeast]

40 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

This is always the dilemma with good patterns in late November and early December. It’s still more apt to produce cold rain due to climo. I like seeing a good pattern arrive closer to mid December. We often get a can-kick with pattern changes as models rush it, so if we torch for 10-14 days, then maybe we have some level of transition for another 2 weeks, maybe we can get something good to start December. 

Yep, a flip late nov would be too soon east of the blue ridge. Delay that a couple/few weeks, we’re golden

[Weather Will]

4 hours ago, CAPE said:

Latest Euro weeklies for the same period. All Fwiw obv.

A month out these long range forecast tools, over a series of consecutive cycles, should have some clue one would think. Otherwise what good are they? 

 

Well I know things are getting serious when you renew your WB subscription!

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

Yep, a flip late nov would be too soon east of the blue ridge. Delay that a couple/few weeks, we’re golden

One of the greatest Winters, 1977-78 flipped late November. Of course we're talking a different era then. Would be nice to witness that again.

      The modern era the later seems to be the desired. 

[midatlanticweather]

Wasn't 1990 also a flip at Thanksgiving? 

[notvirga!]

5 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Wasn't 1990 also a flip at Thanksgiving? 

Are you thinking of ‘89? That was the frigid snowy December 

[CAPE]

4 hours ago, Weather Will said:

Well I know things are getting serious when you renew your WB subscription!

A bit early for me. I usually try to wait until December.

[midatlanticweather]

7 hours ago, notvirga! said:

Are you thinking of ‘89? That was the frigid snowy December 

No, I was home from college in Richmond and we had a sleet/snow event Thanksgiving eve. I could have sworn it was 1990. 

[Terpeast]

8 hours ago, Daniel Boone said:

One of the greatest Winters, 1977-78 flipped late November. Of course we're talking a different era then. Would be nice to witness that again.

      The modern era the later seems to be the desired. 

Yeah, the problem with an early flip to cold is that when it flips back warm, it usually means an early end to the winter in this “new” climo

[RIC_WX]

2 hours ago, midatlanticweather said:

No, I was home from college in Richmond and we had a sleet/snow event Thanksgiving eve. I could have sworn it was 1990. 

It was 1989 for sure

[mattie g]

14 hours ago, CAPE said:

Pretty good agreement for some sort of a workable pattern evolving over the next several weeks. Main issue would be climo ofc. December snow is highly desirable and romanticized, but not very often realized in the MA lowlands.

There's a 50/50 in some of those extended looks, which would go a long way to helping us get just cold enough at that time of the season. We'd just need to time it right, which we all know we do quite well.

[Daniel Boone]

9 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Yeah, the problem with an early flip to cold is that when it flips back warm, it usually means an early end to the winter in this “new” climo

Agree. 

[Daniel Boone]

8 hours ago, RIC_WX said:

It was 1989 for sure

Yeah, the great record cold December followed. Then, the great flip to mild Jan. 1st that resulted in mild east/cold west rest of Winter.

[midatlanticweather]

[cbmclean]

2 hours ago, midatlanticweather said:

I lurk and learn.  What info are we able to gather from 50 hPa?  I'm familiar with the 10 hPa stratospheric charts, but not with 50 hPa.

[WxUSAF]

First 10 days of the month are a total torch, but ensembles are in agreement for now that it flips to a BN pattern after mid-month. 
 

[Scraff]

4 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

First 10 days of the month are a total torch, but ensembles are in agreement for now that it flips to a BN pattern after mid-month. 
 

I mean that looks pretty good I suppose. I’m dreaming of a white Thanksgiving? Lol. Anyway—I just hope the flip can hold on into December.

[SnowenOutThere]

18z GFS has an interesting costal playing out around 300 hours.

[SnowenOutThere]

48 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

18z GFS has an interesting costal playing out around 300 hours.

Gets close but is ultimately cold rain for us. Just gotta delay that pattern flip a couple weeks and it would be a hit. 

 

[midatlanticweather]

Fantasy model runs. We need precip no matter how. I will take it in any form it wants to come. 

[Eskimo Joe]

On 11/2/2022 at 9:14 AM, WxUSAF said:

First 10 days of the month are a total torch, but ensembles are in agreement for now that it flips to a BN pattern after mid-month. 
 

As long as it isn't 70+ degrees on Thanksgiving, it's a win.

[CAPE]

EPO ridge gets established mid month on the big 3 global ens means.

 

[WxUSAF]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

EPO ridge gets established mid month on the big 3 global ens means.

 

That part seems like a lock. But they’re still waffling on whether it couples with a +PNA and hence how chilly we get. 

[CAPE]

17 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

That part seems like a lock. But they’re still waffling on whether it couples with a +PNA and hence how chilly we get. 

Latest LR/extended guidance suggests a brief period of +PNA, but then it trends back neutral/negative. Generally seasonable temps for mid to late month looks like a good bet right now. Remains to be seen if we get some NAO help by the end of the month. Euro weeklies still suggestive of higher heights building over Greenland for early December.

[midatlanticweather]

17 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Latest LR/extended guidance suggests a brief period of +PNA, but then it trends back neutral/negative. Generally seasonable temps for mid to late month looks like a good bet right now. Remains to be seen if we get some NAO help by the end of the month. Euro weeklies still suggestive of higher heights building over Greenland for early December.

Was noticing this as well. Quick cold shot then a shift back to normal or slightly above. I mean, a lot of time to get the details. 

 

[Weather Will]

WB latest EURO weeklies now and later in December…details to be worked out but changes on the way….

[mattie g]

^

I've mentioned it before, but having the lowest heights in that 50/50 region with a -NAO and the EPO/PNA combo would do nothing but help us with early-winter climo.

[aldie 22]

looks a little zonal nothing but pac puke air flowing across the country. 

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said:

looks a little zonal nothing but pac puke air flowing across the country. 

Temp anomaly is around -3F at the surface for that period verbatim. Take it fwiw, and best to glean only the very general idea with these overly smoothed super LR tools. Ofc the actual h5 pattern for that timeframe could always end up the antithesis of what is currently being advertised. 

[CAPE]

Next weekend looks decidedly more chilly than this one behind the late week frontal passage. Instead of approaching 80, it appears temps will struggle to hit 50. Upper 20s/30s for lows Sunday night.