CAPE Posted October 28, 2022 Author Share Posted October 28, 2022 On 10/28/2022 at 2:09 AM, coolio said: Does first frost kill mosquitos? Can't remember. Expand No. Mosquitoes aren't active when temps are below about 50, but many species survive winter by hibernating. The females lay eggs when it warms in the Spring. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 I guess this CFS run lines up with the idea that the pattern may flip in late November. Mainly just fun to see not just blues, but purples on the map. 1 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 Let’s please not get in the habit of posting CFS snowmaps. 3 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 On 10/28/2022 at 3:35 PM, WxUSAF said: Let’s please not get in the habit of posting CFS snowmaps. Expand I mean its better than the long range NAM. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 On 10/28/2022 at 3:35 PM, WxUSAF said: Let’s please not get in the habit of posting beyond 4 day snowmaps. Expand What I wish this mod post could be 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 I'm just happy that, at this point in autumn, we're actually somewhat near climo and aren't torching into the 80s each day. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 On 10/27/2022 at 4:56 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: Example of a TUP - totally useless post. Yours Expand hypocrisy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 On 10/28/2022 at 3:43 PM, Eskimo Joe said: I'm just happy that, at this point in autumn, we're actually somewhat near climo and aren't torching into the 80s each day. Expand Been a great fall. Leaves amazing, good chilly nights, and refreshingly nice days. Best I can remember for years. We need the rain, but I am so happy to see the entire cycle of the leaves on the trees without a windy rainstorm sweeping them quickly away. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 On 10/28/2022 at 2:02 PM, CAPE said: No. Mosquitoes aren't active when temps are below about 50, but many species survive winter by hibernating. The females lay eggs when it warms in the Spring. Expand Actually saw a Tick today. Very unusual this time of year here. Hadn't saw any since Spring. Really odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 29, 2022 Share Posted October 29, 2022 On 10/28/2022 at 9:54 PM, midatlanticweather said: Been a great fall. Leaves amazing, good chilly nights, and refreshingly nice days. Best I can remember for years. We need the rain, but I am so happy to see the entire cycle of the leaves on the trees without a windy rainstorm sweeping them quickly away. Expand Good point about not having much rain since we started to peak. It’s been a wonderful fall/peeping season so far! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 29, 2022 Share Posted October 29, 2022 On 10/28/2022 at 4:53 PM, psuhoffman said: hypocrisy Expand Yawn 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted October 29, 2022 Share Posted October 29, 2022 WB 0Z EPS, dry and mild the next 2 weeks…(temp anomaly is seven day period but is mild throughout the two week period). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 29, 2022 Author Share Posted October 29, 2022 Much of the extended guidance is suggesting a developing -NAO towards the end of November. Fwiw ofc. Would also need some changes in the EPAC wrt the Nina dominant ridge strength/position to get us to a more favorable pattern. Extended GEFS for shits and giggles.. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted October 29, 2022 Share Posted October 29, 2022 On 10/29/2022 at 10:00 AM, Weather Will said: WB 0Z EPS, dry and mild the next 2 weeks…(temp anomaly is seven day period but is mild throughout the two week period). Expand That = awesome weather for November. Perfect timing in my opinion. Flip back to colder as we head into December. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 29, 2022 Author Share Posted October 29, 2022 On 10/29/2022 at 1:35 PM, Chris78 said: That = awesome weather for November. Perfect timing in my opinion. Flip back to colder as we head into December. Expand That's the general idea. I wouldn't be surprised if Dec ends up pretty decent in the high latitudes on the Atlantic side, but getting the Pacific to simultaneously cooperate is a struggle. Default with a Nina. The pattern progression might go somewhat like last winter, where we ended up with something workable for early January. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted October 30, 2022 Share Posted October 30, 2022 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 Wish that look at H5 would dig further south to maybe interact with the storminess along the coast in 11/14-11/15 time frame. Coud be fun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a.salt Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 On 10/28/2022 at 10:04 PM, Daniel Boone said: Actually saw a Tick today. Very unusual this time of year here. Hadn't saw any since Spring. Really odd. Expand I've seen more ticks in the past month than I did all summer! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 On 10/31/2022 at 12:50 PM, a.salt said: I've seen more ticks in the past month than I did all summer! Expand Ticks in the winter are even worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 On 10/31/2022 at 12:50 PM, a.salt said: I've seen more ticks in the past month than I did all summer! Expand yeah, what's up with that. My wife had one crawling on her and I found one dug in on my side. Feels late for that kind of activity... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 On 10/31/2022 at 4:23 PM, North Balti Zen said: yeah, what's up with that. My wife had one crawling on her and I found one dug in on my on my side. Feels late for that kind of activity... Expand found 2 on the dogs last week. thankfully they are up on their meds, so the ticks were just on the outside, but noticeably late in the year to still be finding them on the dogs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 Getting more consistent on Ops and ensembles that our torchvember will start relaxing a bit around Veterans Day. Looks like we finally get a cold front or two with some oomph and the eastern ridge starts to weaken. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 ^yea that's an encouraging look at we move towards the middle and end of November Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 31, 2022 Author Share Posted October 31, 2022 Latest CFS weeklies look like this the period just beyond the last week or so of November when the HL blocking is forecast by the model to develop. Would be a pretty decent look to start off December. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 31, 2022 Author Share Posted October 31, 2022 I mean, shit, we only about a month away now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 31, 2022 Author Share Posted October 31, 2022 Latest Euro weeklies for the same period. All Fwiw obv. A month out these long range forecast tools, over a series of consecutive cycles, should have some clue one would think. Otherwise what good are they? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 31, 2022 Author Share Posted October 31, 2022 Btw this is the correct thread for discussion about how the longwave pattern may unfold over the next month. If you want speculation/forecasts about the character of winter as a whole, or never-ending 'opinions' from the daily post limited member from another sub, the 5 month old winter thread is where you should be. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 1, 2022 Author Share Posted November 1, 2022 New edition of CanSIPS for December at h5. Surface temps normal to slightly below for our region, precip slightly above. I am sure we could thread the needle for some seriously cold rain out of a set up like this. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 1, 2022 Author Share Posted November 1, 2022 Pretty good agreement for some sort of a workable pattern evolving over the next several weeks. Main issue would be climo ofc. December snow is highly desirable and romanticized, but not very often realized in the MA lowlands. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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