psuhoffman Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 20 minutes ago, Yeoman said: wow - you learn something new every day! Sure can’t tell by any of your posts 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 2 hours ago, midatlanticweather said: GFS did a good old Flip Flop - the model in the long-range is pretty poor - but I have seen it do better on things in the short & mid-range Yesterday and today! I must remember the rule - we do warm well! Cover all bases and claim confirmation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 I don't know why anyone would get worked up over a 10+day general outlook and if it flips. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 25, 2022 Author Share Posted October 25, 2022 35 minutes ago, mattie g said: I don't know why anyone would get worked up over a 10+day general outlook and if it flips. Not sure why anyone pays any attention to any op run 10 days out. By nature they are prone to completely different outcomes from run to run. I rarely if ever give consideration to a LR op run, or use them in a post, unless its in context to the ensemble solutions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 35 minutes ago, CAPE said: Not sure why anyone pays any attention to any op run 10 days out. By nature they are prone to completely different outcomes from run to run. I rarely if ever give consideration to a LR op run, or use them in a post, unless its in context to the ensemble solutions. Imagination is a powerful thing...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 1 hour ago, CAPE said: Not sure why anyone pays any attention to any op run 10 days out. By nature they are prone to completely different outcomes from run to run. I rarely if ever give consideration to a LR op run, or use them in a post, unless its in context to the ensemble solutions. Well, when looking for specifics, NO, but pattern evolution can start showing days before the long range and you can start to look for consistency. GFS, though, can become completely inconsistent in one run! LOL! I know all models can. But it is just a tool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 2 hours ago, mattie g said: I don't know why anyone would get worked up over a 10+day general outlook and if it flips. This is a winter board. We tolerate 10 months to live for 2. Every year, we see winter slip away slowly. Then, when things get close, folks get jumpy if it looks the every diminishing window for snow looks to be a dud. It's an annual ritual. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 ... did you also observe a complete flip in the ensemble means of surface temperature for days 10-15? That would be a more interesting ... and probably still wouldn't be too surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 25, 2022 Author Share Posted October 25, 2022 26 minutes ago, dallen7908 said: ... did you also observe a complete flip in the ensemble means of surface temperature for days 10-15? That would be a more interesting ... and probably still wouldn't be too surprising. The means don't have the tendency to do a 'complete flip' like the higher res op runs can within a couple runs. Relying on the lower resolution ensembles at range over a series of cycles reduces uncertainty about the general outcome for a given future window, and that's basically the point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 We can all hope! Here you go @Yeoman - some more Twitter info! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 I will stop posting this guy until we see if what he says holds any water. Here was his post today. I have no idea if this is true. The challenge, of course, is did we flip because of what he has identified or was it just luck. I saw the comments that his upper air charts were not really at the levels to be doing PV predictions. A re-curvature is known to do a disruption, so maybe that is nothing surprising really. Also, snow where? Snow in the east is what he has been focusing on.. but how far east? Inland NE would really be the only place I would see snow being possible before Thanksgiving except maybe some mountain love. Oh well. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 25, 2022 Author Share Posted October 25, 2022 28 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: We can all hope! Here you go @Yeoman - some more Twitter info! More work needed.. just a little work, and with some luck, Dec might resemble that silly analog composite posted right there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 26, 2022 Share Posted October 26, 2022 15 hours ago, CAPE said: More work needed.. just a little work, and with some luck, Dec might resemble that silly analog composite posted right there. I have no idea what would be required for that 500mb look to come to fruition, but goddamn is that tasty. In the end, only one of those winters was decent, but whatever. I just figure that no two seasons will work out exactly the same, though I'm sure some of our resident savants will remember how lucky or unlucky we were in those three years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 26, 2022 Author Share Posted October 26, 2022 11 minutes ago, mattie g said: I have no idea what would be required for that 500mb look to come to fruition, but goddamn is that tasty. In the end, only one of those winters was decent, but whatever. I just figure that no two seasons will work out exactly the same, though I'm sure some of our resident savants will remember how lucky or unlucky we were in those three years. Sure that is a tasty look, but probably pretty unlikely given where we are currently with the key indices. Just a little more work here and a bit more there and then if this happens.. I find the twitter dweeb speculative posts about 'possible' winter outcomes completely boring anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 26, 2022 Share Posted October 26, 2022 44 minutes ago, CAPE said: Sure that is a tasty look, but probably pretty unlikely given where we are currently with the key indices. Just a little more work here and a bit more there and then if this happens.. I find the twitter dweeb speculative posts about 'possible' winter outcomes completely boring anymore. That's fair, but I'm always curious about the MJO since it seems that it really helps to drive a lot of what happens downstream. I've always been honest about my relative lack of weather knowledge compared to many folks on here, so no one should ever take my non-obs, weather-related posts too terribly seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 26, 2022 Author Share Posted October 26, 2022 9 minutes ago, mattie g said: That's fair, but I'm always curious about the MJO since it seems that it really helps to drive a lot of what happens downstream. I've always been honest about my relative lack of weather knowledge compared to many folks on here, so no one should ever take my non-obs, weather-related posts too terribly seriously. I watch the MJO, ONI, etc, and follow the LR ensembles to see how the longwave pattern may progress. Speculating on what h5 will look like 8 weeks down the road is out of my lane, and is pretty much a crapshoot for those who consider themselves more skilled. I enjoy the weather we get in Fall/early winter regardless, outside of these stagnant damp/dreary periods. Love being outside with no bugs and chilly temps. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 27, 2022 Share Posted October 27, 2022 What you really don’t want to see in DJF: 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted October 27, 2022 Share Posted October 27, 2022 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: What you really don’t want to see in DJF: Yeap. Better in Novie than DJF for sure. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 27, 2022 Share Posted October 27, 2022 Dryness as far as the eye can see for my area...I blame that dude in Winchester 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted October 27, 2022 Share Posted October 27, 2022 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: What you really don’t want to see in DJF: If this pans out and stretches to late Nov, my +2 forecast for mid atlantic might get close to verifying. Then I go cold for Dec-Jan… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 27, 2022 Share Posted October 27, 2022 2 hours ago, Terpeast said: If this pans out and stretches to late Nov, my +2 forecast for mid atlantic might get close to verifying. Then I go cold for Dec-Jan… Hope so! I don’t mind a warm November (assuming it flips in mid-December), but I am mildly annoyed how late the first freeze will probably be now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 27, 2022 Share Posted October 27, 2022 On 10/25/2022 at 12:57 PM, psuhoffman said: Sure can’t tell by any of your posts Example of a TUP - totally useless post. Yours 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 27, 2022 Share Posted October 27, 2022 5 hours ago, leesburg 04 said: Dryness as far as the eye can see for my area...I blame that dude in Winchester You’re welcome 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 27, 2022 Share Posted October 27, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted October 27, 2022 Share Posted October 27, 2022 3 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Hope so! I don’t mind a warm November (assuming it flips in mid-December), but I am mildly annoyed how late the first freeze will probably be now. Yes it hurts. My prediction for DCA to freeze in December might come in accurate and I might have nailed it almost entirely if RIC and BWI had just been a couple of degrees colder last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted October 27, 2022 Share Posted October 27, 2022 3 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: That look on the EPS reminds me a lot of November 2017. Not identical, but overtop there are definitely similarities to the start of the month in both figures. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted October 27, 2022 Share Posted October 27, 2022 WB 18Z GFS. Another 2 weeks of dry weather. I have never pulled out the sprinkler in November…. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 2 hours ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z GFS. Another 2 weeks of dry weather. I have never pulled out the sprinkler in November…. @leesburg 04 approves 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coolio Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 11 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Hope so! I don’t mind a warm November (assuming it flips in mid-December), but I am mildly annoyed how late the first freeze will probably be now. Does first frost kill mosquitos? Can't remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 On 10/27/2022 at 6:48 AM, WxUSAF said: What you really don’t want to see in DJF: Good thing it's only a 360-hr prog for early November. As long as our source region gets cold, give me a massive torch here throughout November. Would probably be near-perfect weather. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now