CAPE Posted October 14, 2022 Share Posted October 14, 2022 And by Fall I mean from now through December. The winter thread is becoming a bit of a clusterfuck right on schedule. So, it's looking like the much discussed shift in the pattern towards a -PNA late month might be transient to nonexistent per the latest ens means. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted October 14, 2022 Share Posted October 14, 2022 NWS CPC says above normal for the 8 - 14 day period which would line up with the originally advertised shift to -PNA 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 14, 2022 Share Posted October 14, 2022 15 minutes ago, CAPE said: And by Fall I mean from now through December. The winter thread is becoming a bit of a clusterfuck right on schedule. So, it's looking like the much discussed shift in the pattern towards a -PNA late month might be transient to nonexistent per the latest ens means. Not through December. I was gonna make this thread but you beat me to it. Maybe change it’s name to November? We always have one for every month Nov through Dec. If we have a good month then you have to make them through the winter lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 14, 2022 Author Share Posted October 14, 2022 Latest CFS runs suggest a continuation of a general western US ridge/eastern US trough into the first 10 days of November. Love the idea from a Fall weather perspective, but not sure it bodes well for December. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 14, 2022 Author Share Posted October 14, 2022 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Not through December. I was gonna make this thread but you beat me to it. Maybe change it’s name to November? We always have one for every month Nov through Dec. If we have a good month then you have to make them through the winter lol. I'll leave it for now as we are squarely in Fall and will be officially until December 1 (or 21 depending on criteria). If the thread gets too big as we head into Dec I am sure someone will create a new one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 14, 2022 Share Posted October 14, 2022 1 minute ago, CAPE said: I'll leave it for now as we are squarely in Fall and will be officially until December 1 (or 21 depending on criteria). If the thread gets too big as we head into Dec I am sure someone will create a new one. If that happens it will be because things are great. And if someone else creates a thread then I’m gonna lose it lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 14, 2022 Author Share Posted October 14, 2022 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: If that happens it will be because things are great. And if someone else creates a thread then I’m gonna lose it lol. Wait- you don't think this thread can become a massive whine-fest if we are torching mid November with no end in sight? I can think of a few posters who will largely inflate the post count if that happens lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted October 14, 2022 Share Posted October 14, 2022 Ha! All La La land - I am dreaming of a White Thanksgiving! 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 14, 2022 Author Share Posted October 14, 2022 7 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: Ha! All La La land - I am dreaming of a White Thanksgiving! That general look a month later might be productive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 14, 2022 Share Posted October 14, 2022 2 hours ago, CAPE said: And by Fall I mean from now through December. The winter thread is becoming a bit of a clusterfuck right on schedule. So, it's looking like the much discussed shift in the pattern towards a -PNA late month might be transient to nonexistent per the latest ens means. Some in the winter thread just want to make sure we know how they feel about the upcoming winter that's all...cut them some slack 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 15, 2022 Author Share Posted October 15, 2022 34 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Some in the winter thread just want to make sure we know how they feel about the upcoming winter that's all...cut them some slack ad nauseam 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted October 15, 2022 Share Posted October 15, 2022 1 hour ago, midatlanticweather said: Ha! All La La land - I am dreaming of a White Thanksgiving! We’re hosting Thanksgiving in Deep Creek this year. Reminds me of 2018 when we had 7” fall a few days before Thanksgiving. Unfortunately that year was less than 50% of climo out there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted October 15, 2022 Share Posted October 15, 2022 3 hours ago, midatlanticweather said: NWS CPC says above normal for the 8 - 14 day period which would line up with the originally advertised shift to -PNA CPC probably drew this up a day or two before issuing it. However, it may still turn out right. The +PDO may be the weapon against a sustainable -PNA this Winter. A glimmer of hope against all the mild outlook's , particularly if the forecasted dominant -NAO is realized. There would be alot of busted Winter Outlook's. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted October 15, 2022 Share Posted October 15, 2022 49 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: CPC probably drew this up a day or two before issuing it. However, it may still turn out right. The +PDO may be the weapon against a sustainable -PNA this Winter. A glimmer of hope against all the mild outlook's , particularly if the forecasted dominant -NAO is realized. There would be alot of busted Winter Outlook's. Would love to see it happen once.. Usually busts the wrong way.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted October 15, 2022 Share Posted October 15, 2022 1 hour ago, Daniel Boone said: CPC probably drew this up a day or two before issuing it. However, it may still turn out right. The +PDO may be the weapon against a sustainable -PNA this Winter. A glimmer of hope against all the mild outlook's , particularly if the forecasted dominant -NAO is realized. There would be alot of busted Winter Outlook's. The PDO is still negative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted October 15, 2022 Share Posted October 15, 2022 2 hours ago, Daniel Boone said: CPC probably drew this up a day or two before issuing it. However, it may still turn out right. The +PDO may be the weapon against a sustainable -PNA this Winter. A glimmer of hope against all the mild outlook's , particularly if the forecasted dominant -NAO is realized. There would be alot of busted Winter Outlook's. And in my own quaint way that what I am saying 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 15, 2022 Share Posted October 15, 2022 13 hours ago, midatlanticweather said: NWS CPC says above normal for the 8 - 14 day period which would line up with the originally advertised shift to -PNA Looks awesome. Cold before mid November is a total waste. Useless. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted October 15, 2022 Share Posted October 15, 2022 13 hours ago, Terpeast said: The PDO is still negative Not classic. Looks rather borderline imo and some forecasts have it going Positive. Also, those warm SST'S off the West Coast and GOA should aid in a + PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 15, 2022 Author Share Posted October 15, 2022 18 hours ago, midatlanticweather said: NWS CPC says above normal for the 8 - 14 day period which would line up with the originally advertised shift to -PNA There will be a warm up during that period as the pattern de-amplifies, but it remains to be seen if a shift to a persistent -PNA is upcoming. Most LR guidance suggests any W US trough will be transient through the end of the month and into November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted October 15, 2022 Share Posted October 15, 2022 1 hour ago, Daniel Boone said: Not classic. Looks rather borderline imo and some forecasts have it going Positive. Also, those warm SST'S off the West Coast and GOA should aid in a + PNA. I saw that, but it’s not enough yet. I actually raised this a few weeks ago when ssts in central pac were trending cooler, but that large warm pool off the coast of japan is still keeping the PDO negative. Not as deeply negative as it has been, but still negative for now. I hope for our sub’s sake that it continues to trend toward neutral. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted October 15, 2022 Share Posted October 15, 2022 And then comes Indian Summer 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 15, 2022 Share Posted October 15, 2022 ^that has brush fires written all over it 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 16, 2022 Author Share Posted October 16, 2022 Verbatim the end of month 'torch' for the east is a few days in the upper 60s the week of the 24th on the GEFS. That would be pretty typical Fall weather for this region. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 16, 2022 Author Share Posted October 16, 2022 Hyperbolic weather dweebs on twitter are a dime a dozen. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 16, 2022 Share Posted October 16, 2022 Warm sounds great! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 17, 2022 Share Posted October 17, 2022 Looking like the -PNA pattern may be more durable, although it does seem to relax toward a more zonal pattern by Halloween weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 18, 2022 Share Posted October 18, 2022 On 10/16/2022 at 5:44 AM, CAPE said: Hyperbolic weather dweebs on twitter are a dime a dozen. Hyperbolic and disingenuous just to drive views, likes, and re-twats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted October 20, 2022 Share Posted October 20, 2022 Thoughts on this analysis? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 20, 2022 Share Posted October 20, 2022 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted October 20, 2022 Share Posted October 20, 2022 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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