GaWx Posted October 11, 2022 Share Posted October 11, 2022 BULLETINTropical Storm Karl Advisory Number 1NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022400 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022...KARL FORMS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE......TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERNMEXICO...SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION----------------------------------------------LOCATION...19.6N 94.4WABOUT 120 MI...195 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICOABOUT 215 MI...350 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICOMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES Tropical Storm Karl Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022 400 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022 Tropical Storm Karl has formed over the Bay of Campeche. Aircraft and scatterometer data show a closed circulation with a relatively large radius of maximum winds and a broad area of light and variable winds near the center. The Air Force Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance aircraft found believable SFMR wind speeds of 35 kt and flight-level winds up to 46 kt while investigating the system. The scatterometer data also showed a large area of 30-35 kt winds to the north of the center. The initial intensity is set to 35 kt based on these data. Karl is moving slowly northwestward at an estimated 5 kt. The storm is embedded in a high pressure system, and this motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. Thereafter, the ridge is likely to build westward and steer the cyclone southwestward into the coast of Mexico in a few days. The official forecast is close to the consensus guidance, though this is an uncertain forecast due to the spread in the forecast track models near landfall. Atmospheric and oceanic conditions are forecast to be conducive for Karl during the next day or so. This should allow Karl to strengthen before global models suggest the vertical wind shear increases and causes gradual weakening before landfall. Rapid decay is expected once the storm moves inland due to the mountainous terrain. The NHC intensity forecast peaks at 45 kt in 24 h which is close to the SHIPS guidance, though all of guidance is clustered near this value. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall could produce flash flooding in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec and in the southern Sierra Madre Oriental mountains and adjacent coastal areas with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Mexico starting Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 19.6N 94.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 20.3N 94.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 21.1N 95.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 13/0600Z 21.2N 96.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 13/1800Z 20.7N 96.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 14/0600Z 20.2N 96.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 14/1800Z 19.9N 97.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci/Blake 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted October 11, 2022 Share Posted October 11, 2022 Honestly, not bad structure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston Bulldog Posted October 12, 2022 Share Posted October 12, 2022 1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said: Honestly, not bad structure You aren't kidding, suspicious looking curved band on the north side of the center per the last SSMIS pass 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 12, 2022 Author Share Posted October 12, 2022 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karl Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022 1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022 ...KARL FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.5N 94.9W ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM NE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES Tropical Storm Karl Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022 1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022 Bursts of deep convection have continued to develop this evening near and to the northeast of the estimated center. Data from the earlier reconnaissance mission into Karl showed that the circulation was elongated along a south-southeast to north-northwest axis with at least a couple of swirls that are likely rotating around the mean center. The plane did not find flight-level or SFMR winds any stronger than what was reported before the release of the previous advisory. Therefore, the initial intensity is maintained at 35 kt, which is slightly above the latest Dvorak satellite estimates. The next reconnaissance mission into Karl is scheduled for Wednesday morning. Karl is moving north-northwestward or 330/5 kt, and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. After that time, a ridge of high pressure is forecast to build to the northwest of Karl over northern Mexico. The flow around the southeastern flank of that anticyclone is expected to cause Karl to turn southwestward Wednesday night. This motion should then bring the cyclone near the coast of Mexico within the watch area on Thursday. The latest dynamical model guidance depicts a sharper turn Wednesday night and the official forecast was adjusted southward, and a bit faster than the previous forecast at 36 h and beyond. This southward adjustment required the government of Mexico to extend the Tropical Storm Watch southward to Roca Partida. The new NHC track forecast is close to the simple consensus aids and is also in good agreement with the ECMWF model. Karl is currently located within an environment of generally light southwesterly shear and over warm sea surface temperatures. This should allow some strengthening tonight or on Wednesday. After that time, increasing northwesterly shear and decreasing mid-level relative humidity are likely to cause some weakening before landfall. After Karl moves onshore, rapid decay is expected due to the mountainous terrain, and Karl is likely to dissipate in around 72 hours. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall could produce flash flooding in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec and in the southern Sierra Madre Oriental mountains and adjacent coastal areas with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Mexico starting Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 20.5N 94.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 21.0N 95.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 13/0000Z 21.4N 95.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 13/1200Z 21.1N 95.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 14/0000Z 20.2N 96.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 14/1200Z 19.4N 96.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 72H 15/0000Z 19.1N 97.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 12, 2022 Author Share Posted October 12, 2022 Tropical Storm Karl Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022 400 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022 Karl has not changed much in organization over the past several hours. The central convection is currently minimal, with the primary convection occurring in bands somewhat removed from the center in the eastern semicircle. NOAA buoy 42055 located to the northeast of the center has reported 1-min average winds of up to 33 kt, and based on this plus a satellite intensity estimate from TAFB, the initial intensity remains 35 kt. The initial motion is 340/5 kt. A general north-northwestward motion is expected to continue through today. After that, a ridge of high pressure is forecast to build to the northwest of Karl over northern Mexico. The flow around the southeastern flank of this anticyclone is expected to cause Karl to make a left hairpin turn and move southward to south-southwestward by 36-48 h. The latest track guidance has shifted eastward from the previous runs, with several models now showing a right hairpin turn and a east of south motion toward the coast of Mexico. The new forecast track is shifted eastward from the previous forecast, but lies to the west of the current consensus models. If the models do not shift back westward, additional eastward adjustments may be necessary later today. Karl is currently located within an environment of light to moderate southwesterly shear and over warm sea surface temperatures. This should allow some strengthening through the next 24 h. After that time, increasing northwesterly shear and decreasing mid-level relative humidity are likely to cause some weakening before landfall. After Karl moves onshore, rapid decay is expected due to the mountainous terrain, and Karl is likely to dissipate just after 72 h. The new intensity forecast has only minor adjustments from the previous forecast and is on the high side of the intensity guidance. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall could produce instances of flash flooding, with mudslides in areas of higher terrain, across portions of Vera Cruz and Tabasco states in Mexico. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Mexico starting on Thursday night. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 21.1N 94.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 21.7N 95.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 21.7N 95.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 20.9N 95.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 14/0600Z 20.2N 95.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 14/1800Z 19.5N 95.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 15/0600Z 18.6N 96.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 12, 2022 Author Share Posted October 12, 2022 Tropical Storm Karl Advisory Number 3a NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022 700 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022 ...KARL MOVING SLOWLY AND BEGINNING TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.5N 94.8W ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM ENE OF TUXPAN MEXICO ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...70 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 12, 2022 Share Posted October 12, 2022 Special advisory issued to put this at 60mph 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 12, 2022 Author Share Posted October 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Special advisory issued to put this at 60mph Thanks for the update. Here's today's 12Z UKMET, which is almost spot on vs its current recon based position. This has its current NE drift stop by tomorrow morning followed by a turn to the SSE the subsequent 48 hours (yes, too weak strengths per the usual but it was by a good margin the best with Ian's track starting within 3 days of FL landfall even with it being much too weak in many runs): MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 12.10.2022 TROPICAL STORM KARL ANALYSED POSITION : 21.6N 95.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142022 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 12.10.2022 0 21.6N 95.0W 1008 28 0000UTC 13.10.2022 12 22.0N 94.6W 1007 29 1200UTC 13.10.2022 24 22.1N 94.4W 1007 25 0000UTC 14.10.2022 36 21.4N 94.0W 1006 25 1200UTC 14.10.2022 48 20.6N 93.6W 1007 25 0000UTC 15.10.2022 60 20.2N 93.3W 1006 29 1200UTC 15.10.2022 72 20.0N 93.8W 1008 30 0000UTC 16.10.2022 84 CEASED TRACKING Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted October 12, 2022 Share Posted October 12, 2022 It's interesting that the UKMET never drives Karl inland. Makes me wonder if there is any chance at all of the storm lingering in the Bay of Campeche and being picked up by the next trough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 12, 2022 Author Share Posted October 12, 2022 3 hours ago, Wild Weather Monger said: It's interesting that the UKMET never drives Karl inland. Makes me wonder if there is any chance at all of the storm lingering in the Bay of Campeche and being picked up by the next trough? Good question. However, after it is declassified as a TC the remnant surface low goes south inland over MX per the other source I look at. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 13, 2022 Author Share Posted October 13, 2022 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karl Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022 1000 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022 ...KARL MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.7N 93.9W ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM N OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 155 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES Tropical Storm Karl Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022 1000 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022 A burst of deep convection has developed over the southeastern portion of Karl's circulation since the previous advisory. Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA buoy 42055 indicate that the low-level center of the tropical cyclone is located near the northeastern edge of that convection due to northwesterly vertical wind shear. Although the aircraft has only measured flight-level and SFMR winds to support an intensity of around 40 kt, the advisory wind speed is maintained at 45 kt due to the recent increase in convection. Also, this gives the plane more time to fully examine the cyclone, as it is possible the strongest winds have yet to be sampled. Continued northwesterly shear and the entrainment of dry mid-level air are likely to cause some weakening over the next day or so, but Karl is forecast to be a tropical storm when it nears the coast of Mexico. After landfall, rapid weakening and dissipation of the low-level circulation is expected as the cyclone moves over the mountainous terrain of southern Mexico. Fixes from the aircraft show that Karl has finally begun its anticipated south-southeastward turn, and the initial motion estimate is 155/4 kt. A mid-level ridge to the northwest of Karl is expected to steer the storm south-southeastward through tonight. A southward to south-southwestward motion is forecast on Friday which should bring the center of Karl to the Bay of Campeche coast Friday night or Saturday. The guidance envelope has moved slightly eastward this cycle, and the NHC track forecast has been adjusted in that direction. There is still some spread in the models as to how fast Karl will move southward, which results in some timing differences regarding landfall in Mexico. The official forecast is close to the GFEX and the other consensus aids to account for that. Based on the latest forecast, the government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of the coast of the Bay of Campeche. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall associated with Karl could produce flash flooding, with mudslides in areas of higher terrain, across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco, Chiapas, and Oaxaca states in Mexico. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within a portion of the warning area in Mexico by late Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 21.7N 93.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 21.0N 93.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 20.0N 93.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 19.1N 93.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 18.0N 94.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 60H 16/0000Z 17.0N 95.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 Pressure now below 1000 mb. CoC is now trying to hide inside the convection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 13, 2022 Author Share Posted October 13, 2022 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karl Intermediate Advisory Number 9A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022 100 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022 ...KARL EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.2N 93.7W ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM N OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 155 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 1 hour ago, Iceresistance said: Pressure now below 1000 mb. CoC is now trying to hide inside the convection Convection Is being blown away from the center again, seems to be dealing with some pretty significant shear. The NHC forecast of 45 mph pre-landfall, may be too strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 15, 2022 Share Posted October 15, 2022 Karl is a goner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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