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My Winter Outlook for 2022-23


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21 hours ago, raindancewx said:

In a global sense, using 1940-now ERA data from the Europeans, the cold West / hot East really stands out. I definitely had the right idea with a harsh Western winter. California is about to get nuked with snow again too. It's always interesting to look globally and see the "correlation points" in Asia - typically if the Indian subcontinent south/east of the Himalayas is hot, so is the Eastern US, and if Central Asia up to Kamchatka/NE Asia is cold, so is the Western US.

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Alps are in a massive snow drought too.  Likely climate change driven.

 

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Eastern Atlantic didn't really do what I expected, but kind of irrelevant since the cold showed up consistently in the West via its partner in crime over NE Asia. I believe this is most +WPO winter on record using the index, but I'd have to check. I know it went super positive in February, which is when the pattern started to get real crazy for California, and it's a very strong warm signal in the East.

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-WPO is basically mirror image of the winter.

https://www.worldclimateservice.com/2021/10/04/western-pacific-oscillation/#:~:text=The Western Pacific Oscillation is a pressure dipole that exists,than a week or two.Negative_Western_Pacific_Oscillation_Temperature_Impacts.png

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3 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Image

https://www.carbonbrief.org/tonga-volcano-eruption-raises-imminent-risk-of-temporary-1-5c-breach/

Volcanoes are a big deal.

The good news is we'll likely pass that stupid 1.5C threshold of warming everyone worries about. So we can see much sooner than expected what will happen.

that breach won't be temporary and we're going to go WAY past it likely to 2.5 C within our lifetimes.

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