My Winter Outlook for 2022-23

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No one said that. But all else being equal, it provides the cold with more staying power, which is why it is linked to colder patterns in the northeast on average. At present all else is not equal because there is no mechanism to drive the cold southeast as of yet.

 I think the following might be of interest as I happened to have recently looked at the December 1-15 temperature anomalies at Raleigh-Durham, NC, (RDU) for the seven years since 1950 with an -NAO of -1 or stronger averaged out for the period 12/1-15 (year: average NAO for 12/1-15, RDU temperature anomaly):

1963: -1.5/very cold -7

2009: -1.3/cool -2

2010: -1.2/very cold -12

1977: -1.1/cold -5

1989: -1.1/very cold -7

1995: -1.1/cool -2

2002: -1.0/very cold -9

 

*Average was a cold -6

*None were mild. All were colder than normal with 5 of 7 cold to very cold.

*2010 with -12 was the coldest of these and yet it somehow did this with a PNA way down at -1.0, the 4th lowest 12/1-15 PNA since 1950! The lowest 12/1-15 PNA since 1950 isn't that much lower (-1.2 in 1972).

*2022's 12/1-15 NAO/PNA combo is forecasted by the GEFS to end up by far the closest to 2010 vs any other year since 1950. The latest forecast is for an NAO of ~-0.8 to -0.9 and a PNA of ~-1.1. In 2010, the NAO was -1.2 (3rd lowest since 1950) and the PNA was -1.0 (4th lowest PNA since 1950).

*But despite the similarity to the NAO/PNA of 2010, the latest forecast temperature anomaly for RDU for 12/1-15/2022 is for it to average significantly warmer than normal, the opposite of 2010's extreme cold! With it only December 5th, the actual 12/1-15/2022 is still somewhat up in the air especially considering that this is a difficult pattern to forecast. Regardless, the period as a whole clearly isn't currently looking cold even with the possibility of it ending cold and thus looks to be far different from 2010.

RDU temperatures:

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=rah

 

Daily NAO since 1950:

https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.nao.cdas.z500.19500101_current.csv

 

Daily PNA since 1950:

https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.pna.cdas.z500.19500101_current.csv

[so_whats_happening]

13 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No one said that. But all else being equal, it provides the cold with more staying power, which is why it is linked to colder patterns in the northeast on average. At present all else is not equal because there is no mechanism to drive the cold southeast as of yet.

It definitely was implied just a few posts above. Right a -NAO just provides staying power into a pattern if the cold got released in any other instance, it simply doesn't mean a cold pattern. 

[so_whats_happening]

11 hours ago, GaWx said:

 I think the following might be of interest as I happened to have recently looked at the December 1-15 temperature anomalies at Raleigh-Durham, NC, (RDU) for the seven years since 1950 with an -NAO of -1 or stronger averaged out for the period 12/1-15 (year: average NAO for 12/1-15, RDU temperature anomaly):

1963: -1.5/very cold -7

2009: -1.3/cool -2

2010: -1.2/very cold -12

1977: -1.1/cold -5

1989: -1.1/very cold -7

1995: -1.1/cool -2

2002: -1.0/very cold -9

 

*Average was a cold -6

*None were mild. All were colder than normal with 5 of 7 cold to very cold.

*2010 with -12 was the coldest of these and yet it somehow did this with a PNA way down at -1.0, the 4th lowest 12/1-15 PNA since 1950! The lowest 12/1-15 PNA since 1950 isn't that much lower (-1.2 in 1972).

*2022's 12/1-15 NAO/PNA combo is forecasted by the GEFS to end up by far the closest to 2010 vs any other year since 1950. The latest forecast is for an NAO of ~-0.8 to -0.9 and a PNA of ~-1.1. In 2010, the NAO was -1.2 (3rd lowest since 1950) and the PNA was -1.0 (4th lowest PNA since 1950).

*But despite the similarity to the NAO/PNA of 2010, the latest forecast temperature anomaly for RDU for 12/1-15/2022 is for it to average significantly warmer than normal, the opposite of 2010's extreme cold! With it only December 5th, the actual 12/1-15/2022 is still somewhat up in the air especially considering that this is a difficult pattern to forecast. Regardless, the period as a whole clearly isn't currently looking cold even with the possibility of it ending cold and thus looks to be far different from 2010.

RDU temperatures:

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=rah

 

Daily NAO since 1950:

https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.nao.cdas.z500.19500101_current.csv

 

Daily PNA since 1950:

https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.pna.cdas.z500.19500101_current.csv

Yea 2010 was a bit of an oddball situation with a -PNA and -NAO and widespread cold. Not to say a -PNA/-NAO combo doesn't produce cold and at that coast to coast, it can and does happen just not very often. This year is different in that we did not have a -NAO leading up to that cold period like in 2010. We had a fairly weak -NAO if you want to call it that with similar ridging pattern in the Alaska region leading up to current time. So cold got to build up in the similar regions except now it is just being released along the west instead of across the country. Talk about anomalous -PNA though in 2010.

Here are the 2 weeks leading up to the end of November you can see the similarities between the two years except for one fairly noticeable difference and that is the lack of -NAO leading up to December this year. If we had that -NAO present it would have been able to funnel in the cold much better. We also had a very weak MJO basically null that month so not much influence in that department versus this year we have a more pronounced wave making its presence known and throwing curveballs at us.

[40/70 Benchmark]

32 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

It definitely was implied just a few posts above. Right a -NAO just provides staying power into a pattern if the cold got released in any other instance, it simply doesn't mean a cold pattern. 

The point is that on average a neg NAO pattern is colder than a positive NAO pattern. That is different than saying that the NAO is the vehicle for the delivery of the cold. That isn't what I intended to imply...not sure about anyone else.

[so_whats_happening]

26 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The point is that on average a neg NAO pattern is colder than a positive NAO pattern. That is different than saying that the NAO is the vehicle for the delivery of the cold. That isn't what I intended to imply...not sure about anyone else.

That statement solely relies on the pacific pattern at the time and serves no other purpose other than to shift the storm track further south. I think a better statement would be it gives opportunity to have colder air to funnel with a -NAO versus a +NAO if the pacific pattern cooperates enough leading into the development of the NAO (whichever phase comes about). I feel we have been far too lucky with getting a -EPO/+PNA pattern within a -NAO regime that it gives us this sense cold will be there when we get a -NAO, hence a big reason many associate the -NAO with a cold pattern. 

Honestly with all this talk none of this was even remotely intended toward you, you just happen to think the statement was about what you had said, not entirely sure why you felt that way but hey to each their own. I wanna say raindance's comment of -NAO was in jest toward the lot of people saying it will be a December to remember as is usually the case pointed out almost every year and then on top of it posting GFS maps of warm anomalies as we are transitioning into a west based -NAO during that timeframe. GFS unfortunately is a bit wonked out of its mind right now 0 consistency run to run so it was in bad taste.

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

That statement solely relies on the pacific pattern at the time and serves no other purpose other than to shift the storm track further south. I think a better statement would be it gives opportunity to have colder air to funnel with a -NAO versus a +NAO if the pacific pattern cooperates enough leading into the development of the NAO (whichever phase comes about). I feel we have been far too lucky with getting a -EPO/+PNA pattern within a -NAO regime that it gives us this sense cold will be there when we get a -NAO, hence a big reason many associate the -NAO with a cold pattern. 

Honestly with all this talk none of this was even remotely intended toward you, you just happen to think the statement was about what you had said, not entirely sure why you felt that way but hey to each their own. I wanna say raindance's comment of -NAO was in jest toward the lot of people saying it will be a December to remember as is usually the case pointed out almost every year and then on top of it posting GFS maps of warm anomalies as we are transitioning into a west based -NAO during that timeframe. GFS unfortunately is a bit wonked out of its mind right now 0 consistency run to run so it was in bad taste.

Totally fair enough. I wasn't sure who it was intended toward...I was just trying to clarify what I meant in pointing our that the NAO does in fact matter. But I also feel that your way of articulating it is better than simply saying that the NAO doesn't matter...that is also inaccurate and misleading.

 

Didn't intend to sound defensive.

[LibertyBell]

On 12/5/2022 at 1:39 AM, so_whats_happening said:

Little bit of cringe going on here.

It is well known -NAO does not bring cold temps into the US so im not sure where that is coming from. Didn't have a -NAO with the cold blast in November even with a neutral to negative PNA sticking around we reduced the heat anomalies easily by half. -NAO is all about storm track and slowing the forward speed of systems. I personally would rather take my chances with temps near or slightly above average as a whole than have a ton of cold pressing down east of the Mississippi. Suppression/depression with missed opportunities off the coast no thanks. Many areas need rain and would rather see the rain falling then see the constant bickering of no snow. Plus it is only December folks need to relax a bit.

Right several recent winters have shown there is a disconnect between extreme cold and snow, you don't need it to be very cold to get snow.  Not only that, extreme cold can be a deterrant to snow, as the 80s proved, with their much colder Januarys and very little snowfall.

 

[LibertyBell]

9 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Yea 2010 was a bit of an oddball situation with a -PNA and -NAO and widespread cold. Not to say a -PNA/-NAO combo doesn't produce cold and at that coast to coast, it can and does happen just not very often. This year is different in that we did not have a -NAO leading up to that cold period like in 2010. We had a fairly weak -NAO if you want to call it that with similar ridging pattern in the Alaska region leading up to current time. So cold got to build up in the similar regions except now it is just being released along the west instead of across the country. Talk about anomalous -PNA though in 2010.

Here are the 2 weeks leading up to the end of November you can see the similarities between the two years except for one fairly noticeable difference and that is the lack of -NAO leading up to December this year. If we had that -NAO present it would have been able to funnel in the cold much better. We also had a very weak MJO basically null that month so not much influence in that department versus this year we have a more pronounced wave making its presence known and throwing curveballs at us.

-nao is more of a cold signal for the south than it is for us in the northern midatlantic and northeast.  It's good for slow moving storms with near average temperatures for us.

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Right several recent winters have shown there is a disconnect between extreme cold and snow, you don't need it to be very cold to get snow.  Not only that, extreme cold can be a deterrant to snow, as the 80s proved, with their much colder Januarys and very little snowfall.

 

 But for many of us down here in the SE US, the 80s was a very wintry decade with quite a few major and widespread winter storms including March of 1980, Jan of 1982, March of 1983, Jan of 1987, Jan of 1988, Feb of 1989, and Dec of 1989. In some parts of the SE, the 1980s had the heaviest liquid equivalent for wintry precip in the better part of 100 years. That extreme cold that deterred snow in the NE US enhanced it further south.

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 But for many of us down here in the SE US, the 80s was a very wintry decade with quite a few major and widespread winter storms including March of 1980, Jan of 1982, March of 1983, Jan of 1987, Jan of 1988, Feb of 1989, and Dec of 1989. In some parts of the SE, the 1980s had the heaviest liquid equivalent for wintry precip in the better part of 100 years. That extreme cold that deterred snow in the NE US enhanced it further south.

Yep, it created a nice suppressed pattern all the way up to DC where areas near there and south of there actually had real winters.

I don't remember March 1980, but January 1982 was pretty big here, that one caused the downing of a jet in the Potomac if I remember correctly?  Later, in April, we had  a historic blizzard, that may be the only time I'll ever get to see that.  February of 1989 was a blown call for us, as cold and dry air kept that storm south of us and ACY got 19 inches!  December 1989 was another one....this time the storm was too close to the coast and we changed to rain with less than 1" of snow on the front end-- both were predicted to be 6-8 inches here.  Do you remember the Veternas Day storm in 1987, and did you get anything from that?  We only got 1-3 inches here, but that storm hit much harder both south and northeast of here.

Jan 1987 was big here too, I think the biggest storm since the Feb 1983 historic 2 ft blizzard.  Later, we had accumulating 2-4" snow after the middle of April which is almost unheard of here!  Back to back Aprils with snowstorms!

 

 

 

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

-nao is more of a cold signal for the south than it is for us in the northern midatlantic and northeast.  It's good for slow moving storms with near average temperatures for us.

 I agree about the south to southern mid-Atlantic (pretty strong correlation to cold of +0.5 to +0.6) though it is still a pretty cold signal even up into the SNE with a respectable +0.4 to +0.5 correlation even up there (nearly +0.5 at NYC):

[GaWx]

33 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I don't remember March 1980, but January 1982 was pretty big here, that one caused the downing of a jet in the Potomac if I remember correctly?  Later, in April, we had  a historic blizzard, that may be the only time I'll ever get to see that.  February of 1989 was a blown call for us, as cold and dry air kept that storm south of us and ACY got 19 inches! December 1989 was another one....this time the storm was too close to the coast and we changed to rain with less than 1" of snow on the front end-- both were predicted to be 6-8 inches here.  Do you remember the Veternas Day storm in 1987, and did you get anything from that?  We only got 1-3 inches here, but that storm hit much harder both south and northeast of here.

Jan 1987 was big here too, I think the biggest storm since the Feb 1983 historic 2 ft blizzard.  Later, we had accumulating 2-4" snow after the middle of April which is almost unheard of here!  Back to back Aprils with snowstorms!

 

 

 

1. Yes, the jet crash was in Jan of 1982. During the second week of Jan of 1982, Atlanta was just about totally shut down. First, they had their first below zero F since 1966. Then they had a three day barrage of a heavy mix of wintry precip (front part of this was the infamous "Snow-jam 1982") due to back to back Gulf of Mexico storms followed by a second very cold airmass dropping temperatures back to zero!

2. Just before Christmas of 1989, the SE coast/N FL got a historic snow giving first on record white Christmas to many with a dusting as far south as Sarasota!:

3. Nothing for me on Veterans Day 1987.

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, GaWx said:

1. Yes, the jet crash was in Jan of 1982. During the second week of Jan of 1982, Atlanta was just about totally shut down. First, they had their first below zero F since 1966. Then they had a three day barrage of a heavy mix of wintry precip (front part of this was the infamous "Snow-jam 1982") due to back to back Gulf of Mexico storms followed by a second very cold airmass dropping temperatures back to zero!

2. Just before Christmas of 1989, the SE coast/N FL got a historic snow with a dusting as far south as Sarasota!:

3. Nothing for me on Veterans Day 1987.

Reagan inauguration day in Jan 1985 was the coldest day I've ever experienced.  No snow on the ground of course, which made it even more amazing that it went below zero in the morning and only reached single digits for the high in NYC (the only time in my memory that's happened here.)

The theme of the 80s was mostly suppression events with cold and dry in January with the few outlying storms I mentioned above, and then it warmed up rapidly in February and the cold and dry was replaced with rainy and mild.

[raindancewx]

Here is how the -NAO worked out for H1 December v. long-term correlations. It's not particularly dominant when other factors get involved.

Anyway, I've been impressed with 1984 as a match for the cold season so far. You may want to look at what happens later in 1984-85 on the off chance that it continues to hold as a good match for a while. I'm fairly sure I mentioned 1983 was a similar match on my NAO scoring system, and that year had about a 2-week -NAO period in late Nov or early Dec if memory serves, before reverting to slightly positive for most of December. It's been similar in that sense.

[raindancewx]

I say it every year, but low ACE is correlated to low snow totals in the NE US.

Here is a look at the latest first snowfall dates in Philadelphia, limited to after Christmas only, since 1960:

1965-66, (27.4 total)

1974-75, (13.6)

1990-91, (14.6)

1991-92, (4.7)

1992-93, (24.3)

1994-95, (9.8)

1996-97, (12.9)

1997-98, (0.8)

1999-00, (12.5)

2001-02, (4.0)

2006-07, (13.4)

2015-16, (27.5)

2021-22, (12.9)

Average for no snow through 12/25: 13.7", range: 0.8" to 27.5".

La Nina average for no snow through 12/25 is about the same.

 

[BuffaloWeather]

40 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

I say it every year, but low ACE is correlated to low snow totals in the NE US.

Here is a look at the latest first snowfall dates in Philadelphia, limited to after Christmas only, since 1960:

1965-66, (27.4 total)

1974-75, (13.6)

1990-91, (14.6)

1991-92, (4.7)

1992-93, (24.3)

1994-95, (9.8)

1996-97, (12.9)

1997-98, (0.8)

1999-00, (12.5)

2001-02, (4.0)

2006-07, (13.4)

2015-16, (27.5)

2021-22, (12.9)

Average for no snow through 12/25: 13.7", range: 0.8" to 27.5".

La Nina average for no snow through 12/25 is about the same.

 

I'm in the Northeast and have over 100" already.

[raindancewx]

I'll just leave this here. 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, raindancewx said:

I'll just leave this here. 

How did your predictions do so far? I look forward to seeing everyone's verification scores at the end of the season.  Do you do yours at the end of March or sometime in April?

In the Northeast and especially the Lakes region outside of Buffalo but also along the coast, it really hasn't snowed much in a few years, businesses that involve snow have been shutting down and looking for other kinds of work as climate patterns shift (an example is how the lobster business is dwindling with warmer ocean temps and the lobsters have been moving north of Maine and into the coastal waters around the Maritime Provinces of Canada.)

[raindancewx]

I didn't have the monthly progression right. The severely warm/cold periods I had forecast in Nov-Feb, have shown up, but at the wrong times. But the seasonal look is going to be close. Keep in mind, it's been cold in the West in Feb, and that will continue through the 28th. Once February has the weighting of 1/3 of winter instead of 1/6 you'll see the relatively cold area expand. The conversions from K to F on the second map work out to a -7F to +7F range in increments of 2F as the conversion from K to F is 9/5 x the K value. If I had excluded the two hurricane/SST and the timing antilogs (2004, 1995, 1962) the cold and heat in the West/East would have been dulled. So that process was kind of a wash - it correctly added much more warmth to the East but also likely too much cold to the West. Locally, in the context of the past 30 years, this is like a -1F to -2F cold winter, longer term, more like average to -1. The wetness I mentioned relative to last year has also verified - this has been a very wet winter nationally. We've already reached average winter precip totals with 1/6 of winter left, and likely 1-3 rain or snow events left by month end.

[Great Snow 1717]

13 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

How did your predictions do so far? I look forward to seeing everyone's verification scores at the end of the season.  Do you do yours at the end of March or sometime in April?

In the Northeast and especially the Lakes region outside of Buffalo but also along the coast, it really hasn't snowed much in a few years, businesses that involve snow have been shutting down and looking for other kinds of work as climate patterns shift (an example is how the lobster business is dwindling with warmer ocean temps and the lobsters have been moving north of Maine and into the coastal waters around the Maritime Provinces of Canada.)

That certainly has been happening in New England. Many people have gotten out of the snow plowing business.  Trucks/suvs with plows for sale are everywhere in the area

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Good job buddy. I did 2nd guess my Winter thoughts when I saw your outlook. (We were trending cold in the Fall). 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

On 12/6/2022 at 12:03 PM, GaWx said:

 I agree about the south to southern mid-Atlantic (pretty strong correlation to cold of +0.5 to +0.6) though it is still a pretty cold signal even up into the SNE with a respectable +0.4 to +0.5 correlation even up there (nearly +0.5 at NYC):

It's been like a +NAO Winter with above average precipitation. The correlation did kind of reverse after 2013 (+NAO more often linked with -EPO/+PNA, -NAO linked with -PNA). 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

10 hours ago, raindancewx said:

 

 

SW, US conditions can sometimes be a predictor. 

 

[LibertyBell]

21 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

It's been like a +NAO Winter with above average precipitation. The correlation did kind of reverse after 2013 (+NAO more often linked with -EPO/+PNA, -NAO linked with -PNA). 

February has been much drier though, nice sunny and warm.

 

[raindancewx]

I'll verify my snow forecast nationally once March is over. Most areas will be done with snow by the end of March.

March should be a wild month. I don't really expect it to be particularly cold overall. But I'm expecting 2-3 blizzards, and 2-3 pretty major tornado outbreaks. A lot of cold dry air will still be present in the northern and western US entering the month, but the east will be muggy/hot. Expecting some very powerful storms to run along those gradients.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Definitely the best outlook. Great job. But I think we can put to rest the notion that I copy your work.

[raindancewx]

Eh close enough

[LakeEffectOH]

Curious here...does anyone think last year's Hunga Tonga volcanic eruption contributed to pattern disruptions causing this winter's extreme warmth?  This eruption blasted a tremendous amount of water vapor into the stratosphere.

[raindancewx]

On 10/7/2022 at 6:34 PM, raindancewx said:

https://www.scribd.com/document/599203054/2022-23-Winter-Outlook

Some notes:

- Much wetter winter than last year. I didn't see a signal for huge snow anywhere - I had the coldest areas looking dry, and the wettest areas looking warm. I do think the Midwest will do well for snow in the off-season - November & March. Any big systems for the NE US are likely late January-late February - just a guess though.

I had mentioned the NE not doing well for snow either in the urban corridor. Also, had the NW dry in my outlook. I'm fairly happy with the results - I tried to incorporate the volcano into the forecast.

[raindancewx]

In a global sense, using 1940-now ERA data from the Europeans, the cold West / hot East really stands out. I definitely had the right idea with a harsh Western winter. California is about to get nuked with snow again too. It's always interesting to look globally and see the "correlation points" in Asia - typically if the Indian subcontinent south/east of the Himalayas is hot, so is the Eastern US, and if Central Asia up to Kamchatka/NE Asia is cold, so is the Western US.