My Winter Outlook for 2022-23

[raindancewx]

https://www.scribd.com/document/599203054/2022-23-Winter-Outlook

Some notes:

- Low ACE in August in the Atlantic for 1950-2021 is meaningfully correlated to +AO, and +WPO conditions in December. This "look" is relatively common in El Nino, but it looks like you'd expect in cold-ENSO years too.

- ACE in the Atlantic is behaving similarly to the 1988 hurricane season. Both very inactive through August, blew up to 75 ACE or so in September. Then a Julia like hurricane in mid-October 1988.

- Strong signals locally in the West for an active/stormy March - probably not that cold though. Wet storms getting stuck over the Southwest like in October - this should show up again several times.

- Low ACE is strongly correlated to more "cold" and "very cold" highs in Albuquerque during La Nina.

- Much wetter winter than last year. I didn't see a signal for huge snow anywhere - I had the coldest areas looking dry, and the wettest areas looking warm. I do think the Midwest will do well for snow in the off-season - November & March. Any big systems for the NE US are likely late January-late February - just a guess though.

- For NE US snows, look at October 2011 - we're not that far off from that look right now. MJO timing / Indonesian warmth still look wrong to me for major eastern US cold in December, although it may try late month at the very end.

More at the link

[raindancewx]

I've been encouraged to make a Youtube video of my forecast on Twitter. Before I do that, is there anything anyone would like elaboration or clarification on? I tried to be much more brief with more pictures this year.

[Maestrobjwa]

20 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

I've been encouraged to make a Youtube video of my forecast on Twitter. Before I do that, is there anything anyone would like elaboration or clarification on? I tried to be much more brief with more pictures this year.

Any thoughts in possible Hunga Tunga eruption influence?

[raindancewx]

I go more in depth at the link on the volcano. But basically, it probably limited the hurricane season in the Atlantic. That's usually a +NAO signal. The quiet August in the Atlantic is almost always a +WPO/+AO look in December. The famous exception is 1983 I think.

The enhanced wetness globally, with floods everywhere from Pakistan to Death Valley are consistent with the volcano dumping enormous amounts of water vapor into the sky. Where can the Earth handle all that moisture falling out without causing too much damage? My guess is the subtropics - i.e. the deserts. But we'll see. We're already very close to pulling out a wet year here, which is vanishingly rare in a La Nina here. But of course it did happen in 1984...after a volcano.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Great work and presentation, as always. I was a bit surprised to see your final map with +5+ on the east coast because it didn't appear that warm in the aggregate.....but you did say "locally".

Good luck with it.

[raindancewx]

Calendar year to date is wettest since 2015 locally. Drought has been reduced massively. Hills look like the Scottish Highlands.

Also: Fairly likely to finish October with top ten to near record rains in the city.

Non-El nino years with heavy rain August & October.

[raindancewx]

I wanted to briefly elaborate on the 1/20-2/20 period.

If there is going to be a cold or stormy period in the East, it's likely then. It's ~2 harmonic / MJO cycles from now, and we've just experienced a pretty cold October look for much of the East. My main issue is the harmonic movements we've been seeing lately should start to fall apart as the La Nina collapses in January-April. September was active enough relative to the rest of the hurricane season that there should be both repeating dominant and recessive looks in the winter.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

Similar to 2021 with the big February in the east...

[raindancewx]

Want to store this here for posterity. I've never tried to score precipitation outlooks on the models at this range -

 

[raindancewx]

I defined "cold" and "very cold" days in Albuquerque as 5F or 10F below the daily average. My research indicated that ~100 ACE this year would translate to about 25-35 "cold days" from Nov-Feb, around 1 in 4 days for that period.

So far, we're four days into November...and today was quite cold - with a high of 48 and a low of 33 so far, certainly more than five degrees below average, and consistent with the idea, as the average temperature is about 50 this time of year. I wanted to track this live to see how the distribution shakes out.

"Cold" / -5F or colder v. daily average days in Nov-Feb:  25-35 expected.

Will update throughout the season. Forecast analogs had a 7/10 frequency of a cold snap in November where a five day period averaged at least 5F below average, with each of the five days cold. We've achieved that now (11/12-11/17, and ongoing).

November: 11/4 (48/32, -10.4) 

                    11/5 (58/29, -6.5) 

                    11/11 (48/26, -10.5)

                    11/12 (54/24, -8.1)

                    11/14 (49/32, -5.7)

                    11/15 (49/26, -8.3)

                    11/16 (44/26, -10.4)

                    11/17 (47/23, -10.0)

                    11/18 (40/28, -10.6)

                    11/19 (46/24, - 9.2)

                    11/20 (50/23,  -7.0)

                    11/22 (49/25,  -6.0)

                    11/23 (55/20,  -5.1)

                    11/24 (47/25,  -6.2)

 

December:  12/13 (39/24, -5.4)

                     12/16 (37/22, -6.9) 

                     12/17 (37/16,  -9.8)

                     12/18 (36/22,  -7.7)

                     12/23 (41/19,  -5.9)

 

January:       1/19    (41/21, -6.7)

                      1/22    (44/22, -5.0)

                      1/25    (41/25,  -5.4)

                      1/26    (40/19,  -9.0)

                      1/27    (43/17,  -8.7)   

 

February:      2/9     (40/27, -7.2)

                     2/10    (43/21, -8.9)

                     2/11     (49/21,  -6.1)

                     2/15     (41/25,  -8.9)

                     2/16     (34/19, -15.6)

                     2/17     (44/17,  -11.8)

                     2/27     (55/21, -6.8)

"Very Cold" -10F or colder v. daily average days in Nov-Feb:

November: 11/4 (48/32, -10.4)

                    11/11 (48/26, -10.5)

                    11/16 (44/26, -10.4)

                    11/17 (47/23, -10.0)

                    11/18 (40/28, -10.6)

 

February:     2/16     (34/19, -15.6)

                     2/17     (44/17,  -11.8)

[raindancewx]

The very high ACE / active 2017 hurricane season had only 10 cold days in Albuquerque from Nov-Feb. Should match or beat that total this week,~1/6 of the way into the Nov-Feb period. Good sign for the correlations posted in my initial post.

CPC has bought into the "cold sandwich" idea for the month now. I hope the last week or so of the month is enough to hold the warmth about where it is now. There were all kinds of severe heat waves and cold snaps in November in my analogs - it was quite a challenge to figure out what the hell was going to happen when it was blended back in October.

[Great Snow 1717]

On 10/7/2022 at 8:57 PM, raindancewx said:

I've been encouraged to make a Youtube video of my forecast on Twitter. Before I do that, is there anything anyone would like elaboration or clarification on? I tried to be much more brief with more pictures this year.

Have you considered having your own channel on YouTube or Twitch?  I think the channel would do very well.  Perhaps post weekly updates on YouTube or Twitter.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Doesn't look as though the December +NAO/AO correlation is going to work out this year, but no correlation is perfect...and you did say it was stronger in warm ENSO years.

[raindancewx]

You're kind of missing the point aren't you? I'll gladly take whatever the NAO does if December verifies cold in the West again. I could very well be wrong about the NAO/AO in December, but it's kind of an irrelevant temperature signal for most of the US at this point in the year. I would have liked November to have been warmer, closer to what I had, but ultimately, the eastern half of the US was warm, western half was cold, rather than 1/3 v. 2/3 split. It's actually kind of amazing that the mid-month cold snap wasn't enough to fully wipe out the heat honestly.

I'm assuming you're concerned because you copied me again? I've not read your forecast, but I'm 99% certain you put the West colder than the East in December, given that I did, and your comment here.

You guys all do this stuff backwards to me - it's much easier to come up with temperature profiles in certain areas of the country and then try to figure out the teleconnections from that. But you guys do the opposite. The Cold West idea for me assumed a cold West would probably have a +AO/NAO, especially since that was favored by the ACE stuff. If we get a cold West, and it wasn't via the +NAO/+AO, I'm still good with it. The signal for ACE in the West is cold - it's there for other teleconnections, but it's really much stronger as a cold signal than anything else statistically.

Certainly doesn't look warm West like in 2010 or 1995 with the -AO/NAO in those years.

 

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, raindancewx said:

You're kind of missing the point aren't you? I'll gladly take whatever the NAO does if December verifies cold in the West again. I could very well be wrong about the NAO/AO in December, but it's kind of an irrelevant temperature signal for most of the US at this point in the year. I would have liked November to have been warmer, closer to what I had, but ultimately, the eastern half of the US was warm, western half was cold, rather than 1/3 v. 2/3 split. It's actually kind of amazing that the mid-month cold snap wasn't enough to fully wipe out the heat honestly.

I'm assuming you're concerned because you copied me again? I've not read your forecast, but I'm 99% certain you put the West colder than the East in December, given that I did, and your comment here.

You guys all do this stuff backwards to me - it's much easier to come up with temperature profiles in certain areas of the country and then try to figure out the teleconnections from that. But you guys do the opposite. The Cold West idea for me assumed a cold West would probably have a +AO/NAO, especially since that was favored by the ACE stuff. If we get a cold West, and it wasn't via the +NAO/+AO, I'm still good with it. The signal for ACE in the West is cold - it's there for other teleconnections, but it's really much stronger as a cold signal than anything else statistically.

Certainly doesn't look warm West like in 2010 or 1995 with the -AO/NAO in those years.

 

It can be cold in both the west and east, and I see NOAA is now going with a cold east.

The likely pattern will be cold in the north (regardless of whether you're in the west or east) and warm in the south.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 hours ago, raindancewx said:

You're kind of missing the point aren't you? I'll gladly take whatever the NAO does if December verifies cold in the West again. I could very well be wrong about the NAO/AO in December, but it's kind of an irrelevant temperature signal for most of the US at this point in the year. I would have liked November to have been warmer, closer to what I had, but ultimately, the eastern half of the US was warm, western half was cold, rather than 1/3 v. 2/3 split. It's actually kind of amazing that the mid-month cold snap wasn't enough to fully wipe out the heat honestly.

I'm assuming you're concerned because you copied me again? I've not read your forecast, but I'm 99% certain you put the West colder than the East in December, given that I did, and your comment here.

You guys all do this stuff backwards to me - it's much easier to come up with temperature profiles in certain areas of the country and then try to figure out the teleconnections from that. But you guys do the opposite. The Cold West idea for me assumed a cold West would probably have a +AO/NAO, especially since that was favored by the ACE stuff. If we get a cold West, and it wasn't via the +NAO/+AO, I'm still good with it. The signal for ACE in the West is cold - it's there for other teleconnections, but it's really much stronger as a cold signal than anything else statistically.

Certainly doesn't look warm West like in 2010 or 1995 with the -AO/NAO in those years.

 

What point did I miss? I was simply speaking of the December NAO....nothing more.

I'm not sure what your issue is, but you are one ill human being. I have the west colder because I expect an RNA in December, which looks correct. Not a big leap of faith in a la nina. It has nothing to do with you. You issued your outlook in October, and I developed my sensible analog composite in SEPTEMBER....as the link below illustrates. The only tweak that I made to it in November was to add one 2010 and one more 2020. I solicit information regarding your view on things for the same reason that I do with anyone else on social media....because I value your input. Have I incorporated some of the tools that you use such as ACE, solar and sensible weather analogs? Yes, because I felt as though I was too dependent on ENSO, but I developed the composites myself.

ENSO Continues to Stagnate as Winter Clarity Increases | Eastern Mass Weather

I have a pretty ferocious first half of winter in the east with the NAO trending negative in December, and you do not....you are wayyyy off base with these outlandish claims. Anyone who reads my stuff is pretty convinced that I thoroughly research everything and spend far too much time to simply copy a forecast, dude.

Stop making accusations about my work when you don't even read it...its both ignorant and absurd.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

PS: Your claim that NAO doesn't matter in during December of a la nina is just as ridiculous as your accusations:

That's my memory too-- and also when you get a -NAO in December it tends to persist for much of the winter.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

PS: Your claim that the NAO doesn't matter in during December of a la nina is just as ridiculous as your accusations:

 

 

The west is cold due to the RNA...its not difficult.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

That's my memory too-- and also when you get a -NAO in December it tends to persist for much of the winter.

 

And yes, I got that image from DT..before I get accused of copying his outlook.

[LibertyBell]

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

And yes, I got that image from DT..before I get accused of copying his outlook.

why would you be copying him anyway-- his outlooks are virtually the same every year lol

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

why would you be copying him anyway-- his outlooks are virtually the same every year lol

 

Yea, I like him more for medium range.

[George001]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

PS: Your claim that the NAO doesn't matter in during December of a la nina is just as ridiculous as your accusations:

 

 

The west is cold due to the RNA...its not difficult.

Yeah if anything the data suggests the NAO matters even more in Ninas, not less. 

[George001]

Didn’t December 2010 have a cold west and strong -NAO and a -PNA, similar to what this December is expected to look like on the models? December 2010 I believe had both a cold west and east.

[raindancewx]

You do copy everyone. I saw you show my exact November image of spectacular Plains warmth in your thread when you were doing you outlook, only to finally realize a week before the cold coming it was unlikely to verify as I had it, and then you were complaining "oh shit my analogs aren't right".

Jesus, if this is what you're hoping for with the -NAO mattering, god bless all of you. It sure looks like a +NAO pattern to me, when the West tends to be cold. That's my only point. The PNA / NAO interactions kind of wash out year to year over which is more dominant early on. 

It's not like this is changing in the long-run.

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, raindancewx said:

You do copy everyone. I saw you show my exact November image of spectacular Plains warmth in your thread when you were doing you outlook, only to finally realize a week before the cold coming it was unlikely to verify as I had it, and then you were complaining "oh shit my analogs aren't right".

Jesus, if this is what you're hoping for with the -NAO mattering, god bless all of you. It sure looks like a +NAO pattern to me, when the West tends to be cold. That's my only point. The PNA / NAO interactions kind of wash out year to year over which is more dominant early on. 

It's not like this is changing in the long-run.

Again, I posted the link to the post in SEPTEMBER when I came up with that analog composite. Man, for someone seemingly so bright you sure are dense. If you would shut up for a second and actually look at my outlook, you would see it is not a reproduction of your's. I have a very wintery January in the east, albeit with a big thaw. I did use your ACE graphic of seasonal progression, which I cited and recommended you as a follow.

I'm not sure why you are on this witch hunt...I am not trying to sell anything. I do this for myself, so I don't know why I would put all of that work in only to copy a forecast.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Maybe I did use a a model image of November temps to save time (not sure), but that wasn't a forecast composite and thus isn't plagarism. Not your tool or data, so no need to cite it.

What gets me is you call me an idiot for not using some of your methods, such as sensible weather analogs, which I did decide that there was value in. So I start incorporating it by developing my own sensible composite, then I get accused of plagarism... how in the hell does someone win with you??

Anyone else can feel free to compare out forecasts and make their own mind up. This is ridiculous. 

As far as the NAO goes, the block is just developing and it's being negated by RNA in the early stages...that doesn't mean that the NAO is meaningless at baseline, as the graphic that I posted illustrates.

[so_whats_happening]

Little bit of cringe going on here.

It is well known -NAO does not bring cold temps into the US so im not sure where that is coming from. Didn't have a -NAO with the cold blast in November even with a neutral to negative PNA sticking around we reduced the heat anomalies easily by half. -NAO is all about storm track and slowing the forward speed of systems. I personally would rather take my chances with temps near or slightly above average as a whole than have a ton of cold pressing down east of the Mississippi. Suppression/depression with missed opportunities off the coast no thanks. Many areas need rain and would rather see the rain falling then see the constant bickering of no snow. Plus it is only December folks need to relax a bit.

[J.Mike]

On 12/2/2022 at 10:19 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What point did I miss? I was simply speaking of the December NAO....nothing more.

I'm not sure what your issue is, but you are one ill human being.

This is not acceptable discourse, IMHO.

[40/70 Benchmark]

31 minutes ago, J.Mike said:

This is not acceptable discourse, IMHO.

Agree, but neither is calling me an "idiot" and making baseless accusations of plagiarism.  Tough not to lose your cool when you present evidence to the contrary and the unsubstantiated claims continue. It should be a warn able offense.

But as an LICSW, I should know better than to use that language in a derogatory manner.

My apologies.

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Little bit of cringe going on here.

It is well known -NAO does not bring cold temps into the US so im not sure where that is coming from. Didn't have a -NAO with the cold blast in November even with a neutral to negative PNA sticking around we reduced the heat anomalies easily by half. -NAO is all about storm track and slowing the forward speed of systems. I personally would rather take my chances with temps near or slightly above average as a whole than have a ton of cold pressing down east of the Mississippi. Suppression/depression with missed opportunities off the coast no thanks. Many areas need rain and would rather see the rain falling then see the constant bickering of no snow. Plus it is only December folks need to relax a bit.

No one said that. But all else being equal, it provides the cold with more staying power, which is why it is linked to colder patterns in the northeast on average. At present all else is not equal because there is no mechanism to drive the cold southeast as of yet.