SnowenOutThere Posted October 6, 2022 Share Posted October 6, 2022 Its that time again, as the seasons change we get ever closer to seeing blue maps back into the region. Think this is the first one I've seen with snow over the metro area itself from the ever reliable CFS. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 6, 2022 Share Posted October 6, 2022 Absolutely nobody wants snow in October 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 6, 2022 Share Posted October 6, 2022 25 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Absolutely nobody wants snow in October What if I do. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted October 6, 2022 Author Share Posted October 6, 2022 34 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Absolutely nobody wants snow in October You might need to change your name after that post 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted October 6, 2022 Share Posted October 6, 2022 Heading out to Meadow mountain to camp for the weekend and every night at 3000ft is supposed to get to freezing. We even got some TA KO2 tires on the G wagon in preps for winter. I'm ready. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2010 extreme Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 Snow in late October can be a death sentence. 10/29/2011 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 6 hours ago, mappy said: What if I do. Exceptions can be granted for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 6 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said: You might need to change your name after that post You might want to study the winters where measurable snow fell in October. Give me sunny and 60’s until Nov 15 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 52 minutes ago, 2010 extreme said: Snow in late October can be a death sentence. 10/29/2011 Exactly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 12 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Exactly Looking back at the numbers...Interestingly, it's been a mixed bag following October snow...Going back to the 1970s: (BWI numbers) 1972: Trace, 72-73 Winter: 1.2" 1977: Trace, 77-78 Winter: 34.3" 1979: 0.3", 79-80 Winter: 14.6" 2004: Trace, 04-05 Winter: 18.3" 2011:..........well, ya know, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 9 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Exceptions can be granted for you yasssss 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted October 13, 2022 Author Share Posted October 13, 2022 0z GFS gets close, even has some snow for Mount PSU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 10 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: 0z GFS gets close, even has some snow for Mount PSU. I just put a voodoo hex on that. It’ll be gone from future runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 On 10/6/2022 at 9:33 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: You might want to study the winters where measurable snow fell in October. Give me sunny and 60’s until Nov 15 Very small sample size. Also very fluke type thing. It's definitely not a good omen but I'm not convinced there is adequate evidence to say its bad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Very small sample size. Also very fluke type thing. It's definitely not a good omen but I'm not convinced there is adequate evidence to say its bad. Yeah I looked at the numbers for BWI since 1970 (see my post above)...nothing you can call a "pattern" per se. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 I need to get to the mountain! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted October 14, 2022 Share Posted October 14, 2022 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted October 14, 2022 Share Posted October 14, 2022 Getting close! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted October 14, 2022 Share Posted October 14, 2022 9 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: Getting close! Thread? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 15, 2022 Share Posted October 15, 2022 36 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: Getting close! I’M ALL IN 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted October 15, 2022 Share Posted October 15, 2022 9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I’M ALL IN A Mount PSU jackpot. So you know it's real! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted October 15, 2022 Share Posted October 15, 2022 the .3 covers me up to mappy. let's fire up the bus. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted October 15, 2022 Share Posted October 15, 2022 Location changes a little but still there.. Was on 0Z too but a bit smaller. I am not even the slight bit believing it. Just sharing 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted October 19, 2022 Share Posted October 19, 2022 WB GFS 0Z 18th extended control 4 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 19, 2022 Share Posted October 19, 2022 840hrs? lollolololol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 19, 2022 Share Posted October 19, 2022 48 minutes ago, mappy said: 840hrs? lollolololol We need a formula that calculates the model-predicted snowfall as averaged for the season. You'd probably need an API and someone with coding experience to get it down pat, but it would be awesome to come up with something to show that X model "actually predicted" 32" of snow for Dulles this past season or whatever. I have an idea as to how it would work, but don't have the skills to make it happen...which is why I'm just a PM for a highly technical team and not an actual developer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 19, 2022 Share Posted October 19, 2022 12 minutes ago, mattie g said: We need a formula that calculates the model-predicted snowfall as averaged for the season. You'd probably need an API and someone with coding experience to get it down pat, but it would be awesome to come up with something to show that X model "actually predicted" 32" of snow for Dulles this past season or whatever. I have an idea as to how it would work, but don't have the skills to make it happen...which is why I'm just a PM for a highly technical team and not an actual developer. I agree that would be pretty fun to track, but alas I too lack coding skills. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 19, 2022 Share Posted October 19, 2022 1 hour ago, mattie g said: We need a formula that calculates the model-predicted snowfall as averaged for the season. You'd probably need an API and someone with coding experience to get it down pat, but it would be awesome to come up with something to show that X model "actually predicted" 32" of snow for Dulles this past season or whatever. I have an idea as to how it would work, but don't have the skills to make it happen...which is why I'm just a PM for a highly technical team and not an actual developer. I’ve thought about tracking model snowfall as predicted at 24/48/72hrs through the season, but I’d do it manually and that’s a lot of work. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 19, 2022 Share Posted October 19, 2022 1 hour ago, mattie g said: We need a formula that calculates the model-predicted snowfall as averaged for the season. You'd probably need an API and someone with coding experience to get it down pat, but it would be awesome to come up with something to show that X model "actually predicted" 32" of snow for Dulles this past season or whatever. I have an idea as to how it would work, but don't have the skills to make it happen...which is why I'm just a PM for a highly technical team and not an actual developer. You would have to apply some sort of weighting to it. Like, if a random GFS 18z run threw out 20” of snow at the 312 hour mark, but then took it away, you can’t seriously say that the GFS forecasted 20” of snow that never occurred. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 19, 2022 Share Posted October 19, 2022 26 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: You would have to apply some sort of weighting to it. Like, if a random GFS 18z run threw out 20” of snow at the 312 hour mark, but then took it away, you can’t seriously say that the GFS forecasted 20” of snow that never occurred. So in other words....nevermind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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