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Winter 2022-2023 Digital Snow Thread


SnowenOutThere
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12 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Exactly 

Looking back at the numbers...Interestingly, it's been a mixed bag following October snow...Going back to the 1970s: (BWI numbers)

1972: Trace, 72-73 Winter: 1.2"   

1977: Trace, 77-78 Winter: 34.3"

1979: 0.3", 79-80 Winter: 14.6"

2004: Trace, 04-05 Winter: 18.3"

2011:..........well, ya know, lol

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On 10/6/2022 at 9:33 PM, WinterWxLuvr said:

You might want to study the winters where measurable snow fell in October.

Give me sunny and 60’s until Nov 15

Very small sample size.  Also very fluke type thing.  It's definitely not a good omen but I'm not convinced there is adequate evidence to say its bad.  

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48 minutes ago, mappy said:

840hrs? lollolololol

We need a formula that calculates the model-predicted snowfall as averaged for the season. You'd probably need an API and someone with coding experience to get it down pat, but it would be awesome to come up with something to show that X model "actually predicted" 32" of snow for Dulles this past season or whatever.

I have an idea as to how it would work, but don't have the skills to make it happen...which is why I'm just a PM for a highly technical team and not an actual developer. :lol:

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12 minutes ago, mattie g said:

We need a formula that calculates the model-predicted snowfall as averaged for the season. You'd probably need an API and someone with coding experience to get it down pat, but it would be awesome to come up with something to show that X model "actually predicted" 32" of snow for Dulles this past season or whatever.

I have an idea as to how it would work, but don't have the skills to make it happen...which is why I'm just a PM for a highly technical team and not an actual developer. :lol:

I agree that would be pretty fun to track, but alas I too lack coding skills. 

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1 hour ago, mattie g said:

We need a formula that calculates the model-predicted snowfall as averaged for the season. You'd probably need an API and someone with coding experience to get it down pat, but it would be awesome to come up with something to show that X model "actually predicted" 32" of snow for Dulles this past season or whatever.

I have an idea as to how it would work, but don't have the skills to make it happen...which is why I'm just a PM for a highly technical team and not an actual developer. :lol:

I’ve thought about tracking model snowfall as predicted at 24/48/72hrs through the season, but I’d do it manually and that’s a lot of work. 

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1 hour ago, mattie g said:

We need a formula that calculates the model-predicted snowfall as averaged for the season. You'd probably need an API and someone with coding experience to get it down pat, but it would be awesome to come up with something to show that X model "actually predicted" 32" of snow for Dulles this past season or whatever.

I have an idea as to how it would work, but don't have the skills to make it happen...which is why I'm just a PM for a highly technical team and not an actual developer. :lol:

You would have to apply some sort of weighting to it.  Like, if a random GFS 18z run threw out 20” of snow at the 312 hour mark, but then took it away, you can’t seriously say that the GFS forecasted 20” of snow that never occurred.

 

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26 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

You would have to apply some sort of weighting to it.  Like, if a random GFS 18z run threw out 20” of snow at the 312 hour mark, but then took it away, you can’t seriously say that the GFS forecasted 20” of snow that never occurred.

 

So in other words....nevermind 

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