Okay here goes, back in the game. Dusting off my research skills and we'll see how it goes.
Outlook is based on 2 things:
- Backward looking indicators using historical analogs for La Nina, +QBO, -PDO, -IOD, and high solar activity
- Forward looking indicators such as atlantic SSTs and wildcards like high stratosphere vapor content (Hunga Tonga)
My best analogs are:
- 2000-01 (no surprise)
- 2011-12
- 1985-86
I've also looked at 2017-18 and 2008-09, but didn't put a