Julia | 85 mph 982 mb peak | EPAC Crossover #2

[yoda]

Yup.. too little too late

Hurricane Julia Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132022
1100 PM EDT Sat Oct 08 2022

Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft 
indicate that Julia became a hurricane near 08/23Z.  NOAA measured 
700-mb flight-level winds of 73 kt and estimated surface winds of 
67 kt on the SFMR, while the Air Force measured 850-mb flight-level 
winds of 75 kt.  The central pressure fell to near 988 mb while the 
planes were in the cyclone.  Based on these data, the initial 
intensity is set at 65 kt.

The initial motion is still westward or 270/14 kt.  Strong 
deep-layer ridging to the north of the hurricane should steer Julia 
generally westward during the next couple of days with a gradual 
decrease in forward speed.  This motion should bring the center 
across the coast of Nicaragua during the next several hours, then 
across Nicaragua on Sunday before emerging into the Pacific late 
Sunday or Sunday night.  After that, Julia, or its remnants, are 
expected to continue moving generally westward until the system 
dissipates.  The new official forecast track is very similar to the 
previous track and lies close to the various consensus models.

Julia has only a few more hours before landfall in Nicaragua.  
However, infrared and microwave satellite imagery shows that the 
convective structure has become much better organized, and the 
hurricane would likely undergo rapid intensification if it wasn't 
about to make landfall.  While not explicitly shown in the 
intensity forecast, maximum sustained winds could reach 70-75 kt 
before landfall.  A quick weakening is expected after landfall, but 
Julia is forecast to be at or near tropical storm strength when it 
emerges off the Pacific coast of Nicaragua.  The intensity forecast 
still calls for Julia to weaken over the Pacific and dissipate 
after 48 h as it becomes absorbed by a broader area of low pressure 
associated with a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event, a scenario 
supported by the GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian models.  However, the 
UKMET maintains some uncertainty about this, as it shows Julia 
surviving and movingly slowly westward into the Pacific during the 
next several days.

Regardless of Julia's track and existence as a tropical cyclone,  
the evolving weather pattern is likely to lead to heavy rains   
over Central America for several days, which could cause 
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas  
of mountainous terrain.


Key Messages:

1. Julia is expected to reach the coast of Nicaragua as a hurricane 
within the next several hours.  Hurricane-force winds and a 
dangerous storm surge will continue in portions of Providencia and 
San Andres islands during the next few hours, and are expected near 
the core of the hurricane when it moves onshore in Nicaragua. 

2. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are expected across
portions of Central America this weekend.  Flash flooding is
possible across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico early next
week.

3. Julia is forecast to remain as a tropical storm while it moves
across Central America to the adjacent Pacific waters, and tropical
storm warnings are in effect along the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua,
Honduras, and El Salvador to account for the possibility of
tropical-storm-force winds in those areas late Sunday and Sunday
night.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/0300Z 12.5N  82.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  09/1200Z 12.5N  84.7W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
 24H  10/0000Z 12.6N  87.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER
 36H  10/1200Z 13.0N  90.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  11/0000Z 13.4N  92.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

[Floydbuster]

Some huge cold cloudtop bursts. Should cause heavy rains, hopefully the fast motion keeps the mudslides limited.

Here's a video update for the night owls.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HtASJZK8Ih4

 

[GaWx]

4 hours ago, Floydbuster said:

Some huge cold cloudtop bursts. Should cause heavy rains, hopefully the fast motion keeps the mudslides limited.

Here's a video update for the night owls.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HtASJZK8Ih4

 

 The fast motion should help quite a bit though that doesn't mean there won't still be some mudslides and perhaps some river flooding.

 Meanwhile, the latest UKMET  again has a crossover into the E Pacific as a still intact TC, though weakening, that moves all of the way to within just a couple of hundred miles of the S tip of the Baja at 144:

HURRICANE JULIA      ANALYSED POSITION : 12.6N  81.8W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132022

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    0000UTC 09.10.2022    0  12.6N  81.8W      992            46
    1200UTC 09.10.2022   12  12.7N  84.4W      993            35
    0000UTC 10.10.2022   24  13.5N  89.2W     1000            34
    1200UTC 10.10.2022   36  12.9N  90.9W      998            40
    0000UTC 11.10.2022   48  13.2N  93.8W     1000            34
    1200UTC 11.10.2022   60  13.1N  96.6W     1003            34
    0000UTC 12.10.2022   72  14.5N  98.0W     1004            36
    1200UTC 12.10.2022   84  15.0N 100.3W     1003            36
    0000UTC 13.10.2022   96  15.7N 102.7W     1002            38
    1200UTC 13.10.2022  108  16.0N 105.7W     1001            36
    0000UTC 14.10.2022  120  16.4N 106.8W     1003            33
    1200UTC 14.10.2022  132  17.2N 107.6W     1005            27
    0000UTC 15.10.2022  144  18.2N 107.9W     1006            22

 

 

[Hurricane Agnes]

Landfall at 3:15 am ET -

 

Quote

251 
WTNT63 KNHC 090715
TCUAT3

Hurricane Julia Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132022
315 AM EDT Sun Oct 09 2022

...JULIA MAKES LANDFALL IN NICARAGUA NEAR LAGUNA DE PERLAS...

Satellite and Nicaraguan radar data indicate that the center of 
Julia has made landfall along the coast near Laguna de Perlas in 
Nicaragua at 315 AM EDT...0715 UTC. Maximum sustained 
winds at landfall were estimated to be 85 mph (140 km/h).  

SUMMARY OF 0315 AM EDT...0715 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 83.6W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NNE OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Papin/Reinhart

Julia has been booking it!!

[MANDA]

Intensified right up until landfall.  Impressive IR satellite depiction as she moved onshore.  Another 12-18 hours over water and would have been a major.

[Windspeed]

[Windspeed]

Yeah I busted on this one big time though clearly the potential was there, the thing just took forever and a day to get the low-level structure aligned with the prolonged intense mid-level vortex / convective pulses. A lot of this was probably due to the duration of land interaction with Venezuela as the broad low was organizing. But fortunately for Nicaragua, the RMW did not tighten until just prior to landfall. Additionally, though globals were slow to intensify and suggested intensification only just prior to landfall, I lack much enthusiasm that it was due to detailed modeling of the low-level structure and land interaction, and they would have failed to show RI beyond if or if not structural issues persisted. Again, the ingredients were there, sometimes loose structure of a broad low-level envelope with multiple vorticy maximums gets in the way.

[NorthHillsWx]

10 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Yeah I busted on this one big time though clearly the potential was there, the thing just took forever and a day to get the low-level structure aligned with the prolonged intense mid-level vortex / convective pulses. A lot of this was probably due to the duration of land interaction with Venezuela as the broad low was organizing. But fortunately for Nicaragua, the RMW did not tighten until just prior to landfall. Additionally, though globals were slow to intensify and suggested intensification only just prior to landfall, I lack much enthusiasm that it was due to detailed modeling of the low-level structure and land interaction, and they would have failed to show RI beyond if or if not structural issues persisted. Again, the ingredients were there, sometimes loose structure of a broad low-level envelope with multiple vorticy maximums gets in the way.

12 more hours and this thing would’ve been a major or dang close to it. Agreed with your discussion

[Normandy]

Think there could be a case for a post season upgrade in landfall intensity.  If we got legit 75mph sustained on land in the south eyewall, landfall intensity is likely a little more than 75 knots.

[Iceresistance]

EPAC Crossover #2 is likely, we've had 2 years with 2 separate ATL-EPAC crossovers before with 1988 and 1996, but only one managed to have TS Force Winds, this might be the first year to feature two crossovers with at least TS force winds. 

[Iceresistance]

Thanks for updating it for me. @Scott747

[GaWx]

12Z UKMET:  doesn't have crossover survival as it falls apart near El Salvador only to reform two days later over water and later get close to Baja as of the end of the text shown below at 144. Per another source which goes out 168 hours, it then hits Baja later on Saturday followed by the moisture moving into the SW US a week from today!
 
TROPICAL STORM JULIA      ANALYSED POSITION : 12.4N  84.4W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132022

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 09.10.2022    0  12.4N  84.4W      991            40
    0000UTC 10.10.2022   12  12.9N  87.5W      998            41
    1200UTC 10.10.2022   24  13.4N  90.0W     1001            36
    0000UTC 11.10.2022   36              CEASED TRACKING

       NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  78 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 15.0N 101.4W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    0000UTC 13.10.2022   84  15.6N 102.4W     1007            30
    1200UTC 13.10.2022   96  16.0N 104.8W     1006            29
    0000UTC 14.10.2022  108  16.0N 107.2W     1005            29
    1200UTC 14.10.2022  120  16.7N 107.9W     1006            28
    0000UTC 15.10.2022  132  18.2N 108.7W     1006            25
    1200UTC 15.10.2022  144  20.3N 109.0W     1009            20

[Iceresistance]

Now officially in the EPAC

[Hurricane Agnes]

Down to a Tropical Depression -

 

Quote

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101541
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Oct 10 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Julia was downgraded to a Tropical Depression
over southern Guatemala at 1500 UTC. At this time, it is 
centered near 14.1N 90.3W at 10/1500 UTC moving WNW at 13 kt. 
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained 
wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous moderate to 
isolated strong convection is noted from 11N to 15N between 89W 
and 93W, including over portions of El Salvador and southern 
Guatemala. On the forecast track, the center of Julia will move 
over southern Guatemala today. Julia is forecast to dissipate 
this evening. Its remnants are expected to continue westward and 
could contribute to the formation of a new area of low pressure 
just south of the coast of southern Mexico in another day or two.
Some subsequent gradual development of the new system will be 
possible while it moves generally westward to west-northwestward 
near the coast of Mexico through the end of the week. Heavy 
rainfall will continue to impact Central America and the Isthmus 
of Tehuantepec in Mexico through Tue. This rainfall may cause 
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Please read the 
latest High Seas Forecast issued by National Hurricane Center at 
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the 
latest Julia NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details. 

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A ridge over the eastern slopes
of the Sierra Madre mountains in Mexico continues to support gale
force northerly winds across the Tehuantepec region. Gale force 
winds of 35 kt are expected to persist downwind of the Gulf to 
about 14N through this afternoon, with seas to 14 ft. Strong to
near gale force N winds will then continue through tonight. Winds
will diminish to fresh to locally strong Tue, with improving
conditions Tue night as the pressure gradient relaxes. Please 
read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further 
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N98W to 13N122W to 09N140W. 
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 
08N to 11N between 95W and 100W, from 10N to 17N between 115W 
and 130W, and from 07N to 10N between 130W and 140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on a 
gale force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec and on
T.D. Julia, located over southern Guatemala.

A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters west of Baja 
California producing moderate NW winds. Seas are in the 4 to 6 ft
range. Light to gentle winds are noted in the northern Gulf of 
California, except for moderate northerly winds in the southern 
part of the Gulf. Seas of 1-3 ft prevail across the Gulf of 
California, with the exception of 3-5 ft near the entrance of the
Gulf. Near Cabo Corrientes, moderate to fresh NW to N winds are
likely occurring. Elsewhere along the coast of Mexico outside of
the Tehuantepec region, gentle to moderate NW winds prevail, 
with seas of 4-6 ft in SW swell.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate NW to N winds will continue
to dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California
through mid-week under the influence of a ridge, increasing to
moderate to fresh Wed night through Thu night. Gentle winds are 
expected in the Gulf of California with the exception of moderate
NW winds across the southern part of the Gulf through mid-week. 
Looking ahead, a new area of low pressure, associated with the
remnant low of Julia, could form just south of the coast of 
southern Mexico in another day or two. Some subsequent gradual 
development of the new system will be possible while it moves 
generally westward to west- northwestward near the coast of 
Mexico through the end of the week. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical
Depression Julia located over southern Guatemala. Fresh to strong
sw to W winds and high seas up to 10 ft associated with Julia 
are currently affecting the offshore waters of El Salvador and 
SE Guatemala. Moderate to fresh southerly winds and seas of 7-9
ft are noted across the offshore waters of Nicaragua. Gentle to
moderate winds and seas of 5-7 ft prevail offshore of Costa 
Rica. Gentle winds prevail elsewhere, off Panama and South America,
where seas are 5-6 ft in SW swell.

For the forecast, Julia will become a remnant low and move to 15.2N 
92.0W this evening, and dissipate Tue morning. Seas will
gradually subside across the offshore waters of Nicaragua today.
Seas of 8-10 ft will then continue over the waters offshore 
Guatemala and El Salvador through Tue before subsiding Tue night 
into Wed.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure well N of the area extends a ridge across the
northern forecast waters. A surface trough extends from 23N129W
to 14N123W.  Moderate to fresh S to SW winds are noted south of 
the monsoon trough between 90W and 110W, along with seas of 6-7 
ft. Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 5-7 ft prevail in the 
remaining waters.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the N waters
through at least mid-week with little change in winds and seas. 

$$
GR