Julia | 85 mph 982 mb peak | EPAC Crossover #2

[GaWx]

The 12Z UKMET has Julia remain a TC into the E Pacific moving WNW paralleling MX 100-150 miles offshore for several days.

[GaWx]

 The 12Z Euro after E Nicaragua landfall barely takes the remnants of Julia into the far E Pacific before then taking much of its remaining vorticity northward up into the Gulf followed by a turn ENE across N FL followed by a turn NE all of the way up the US east coast. Wild path!

Edit: The 12Z EPS has ~10% of its members do something kind of in a similar way.

 

[Windspeed]

Missfired into the seasonal thread. Shear vector is pivoting easterly. New strong convection should now wrap the LLC. At any rate, BOOOM!!!

[NavarreDon]

Missfired into the seasonal thread. Shear vector is pivoting easterly. New strong convection should now wrap the LLC. At any rate, BOOOM!!!

Definitely the healthiest I’ve seen her. Will be curious to see what recon finds.


.

[olafminesaw]

Convection go boom

[WxWatcher007]

 

[Windspeed]

Boy how things can rapidly change. Unfortunately, Julia is going to be an intense hurricane before it reaches Nicaragua. Two major changes: 1) Recon has found that the LLC has relocated under the very dense/deep -80°C formative CDO. 2) The mid-level circulation is now stacking with a slight tilt, but shear has abated significantly in the past 9 hours. With these developments and the quickly organizing core, I fully expect Julia to become a major hurricane, and perhaps even peaking at Category 4 prior to landfall. Too much time left over 29-30°C SSTs and fast enough motion to get the most out of available OHC.

[Windspeed]

Recon is funky. It's as if the LLC is repositioning again.

[Floydbuster]

1 hour ago, Windspeed said:

Recon is funky. It's as if the LLC is repositioning again.

I know, right? Looking at satellite I'd say this is approaching hurricane intensity. Recon says it's discombobulated. 

[yoda]

60mph TS at 2am

[yoda]

3 hours ago, yoda said:

60mph TS at 2am

still 60mph at 5am

[yoda]

Tropical Storm Julia Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132022
500 AM EDT Sat Oct 08 2022

Julia is a strengthening tropical cyclone. Satellite imagery has 
shown an increase in persistent and deep convection occurring over 
the center, with an expanding area of cloud top temperatures colder 
than -80 deg C. Overnight data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters 
indicated the vertical structure of Julia is still organizing, with 
evidence of multiple low-level centers noted in the 850-mb flight 
level wind data. But, the aircraft reported flight-level winds of 
59 kt and believable SFMR retrievals of 45-50 kt on its last pass 
through the northeastern quadrant of the cyclone. Based on these 
data, the initial intensity is set at 50 kt for this advisory.

Weak deep-layer shear, abundant mid-level moisture, and SSTs around 
29.5 degrees Celsius appear conducive for steady to rapid 
intensification of Julia during the next 24 h as it approaches 
Central America. In fact, the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index 
shows a 63 percent chance of a 30 kt increase in intensity during 
the next 24 h. Given the strengthening noted tonight and the 
improved satellite structure, the NHC forecast calls for Julia to 
rapidly intensify into a hurricane later today and continue 
strengthening through landfall on Sunday. This forecast lies 
between the multi-model consensus aids and the stronger SHIPS and 
LGEM guidance. After landfall, the cyclone is forecast to weaken as 
it moves across the terrain of Central America.

The estimated initial motion is westward at 265/16 kt. Julia is 
expected to continue moving quickly westward for the next day 
or so along the southern periphery of a strong mid-level ridge to 
its north. This motion should bring the center of Julia near San 
Andres and Providencia Islands this evening and over the coast of 
Nicaragua within the warning area early Sunday. Based on a 
southward shift in the track guidance, the NHC forecast has been 
adjusted in that direction to bring it closer to the multi-model 
consensus. As a result, the government of Nicaragua has extended 
Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings southward along the coast.

There is still above average uncertainty regarding the future of 
Julia after landfall. While some models (HWRF, HMON, GFS) show the 
center largely remaining over land and dissipating, others (ECMWF 
and UKMET) show low-level vorticity associated with Julia or its 
remnants emerging over the eastern Pacific waters early next week. 
While it appears unlikely that the surface circulation would survive 
the topography of Nicaragua, this scenario could become more likely 
if there are additional southward adjustments to the track. For now, 
the NHC forecast shows weakening and dissipation by 72 h near the 
coast of Central America, but interests along the Pacific coasts of 
El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua should monitor forecast 
updates. Regardless, the set up is likely to lead to heavy rains 
over Central America for several days, which could cause 
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of 
mountainous terrain.


Key Messages:

1. Julia is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane later today, and 
a Hurricane Warning is in effect for portions of the Nicaragua coast 
and the islands of Providencia and San Andres. Hurricane-force winds 
and a dangerous storm surge are expected in areas where the core of 
the system crosses the islands tonight and moves onshore in 
Nicaragua on Sunday.

2. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are expected across 
portions of Central America this weekend. Flash flooding is possible 
across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico early next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/0900Z 12.7N  78.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  08/1800Z 12.6N  80.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  09/0600Z 12.5N  82.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  09/1800Z 12.7N  85.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 48H  10/0600Z 13.2N  87.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 60H  10/1800Z 13.8N  89.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 72H  11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

[MANDA]

Julia looking impressive on latest satellite images.  Thankfully time over water is limited to less than 24 hours.  Has satellite signature of rapidly organizing hurricane.  Time will run out before things get too out of hand.  Nice dust cloud has come off Africa.  After Julia looks quiet for 7-10 days.  Will be get something lifting out of Caribbean later in the month?

[Windspeed]

Still expecting Julia to rapidly intensify today. Despite its initial structural issues at the surface, I do not think it will take long for intensity to ramp up quickly once the eyewall is established. There are hints of this on radar. Again, sure, time is limited over water, but it may have just enough time to peak at a high intensity prior to any first ERC. I think Julia landfalls as a major and depending on how rapidly, even a Cat 4 is still possible once rapid intensification is underway. I think we tend to be conservative and for good measure, as intensity forecasting remains difficult. But ventilation is certainly good enough to get the job done despite 10 kts of shear. I'm going to call 105-110 kts into the Nicaraguan coastline in the early AM hours of Sunday.

[Floydbuster]

 

Beautiful anti-cyclone right over the top of Julia.

[yoda]

65mph/994mb at 11am

[yoda]

Tropical Storm Julia Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132022
1100 AM EDT Sat Oct 08 2022

Air Force Reserve reconnaissance data indicate that Julia is not a
vertically stacked tropical cyclone.  The plane first made an
initial center fix to the north of the main area of deep convection
and found that the central pressure had fallen to 994 mb.  About an
hour later, a second center fix was made three tenths of a degree
farther south near the deep convection, although the lowest
pressure there was only about 998 mb.  The center has been placed
in between the two fixes, hedging toward the lower pressure to the
north.  Julia's initial intensity is set at 55 kt based on the
lowering of the central pressure and unanimous satellite
classifications of T3.5.  So far, the aircraft has measured peak
850-mb flight-level winds of 50 kt and reliable SFMR winds around
45 kt, so it's assumed the plane has not directly sampled the area
of highest winds.

Despite the uncertainty in Julia's initial position, it's clear
that the storm continues to move quickly westward with an estimated
motion of 270/18 kt.  With strong ridging to the north, a continued
fast westward trajectory is expected during the next couple of
days, which should bring Julia's center inland over Nicaragua by
early Sunday morning.  If Julia's center survives the passage over
Central America, it could move just offshore of or along the
Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador Sunday night
and Monday.

It still appears that there is about 15 kt of northwesterly or
northerly shear affecting Julia, but model guidance indicates this
should abate and then turn out of the east-northeast later today and
tonight.  Therefore, further strengthening is anticipated, and Julia
is forecast to become a hurricane later today.  It's important to
keep in mind that Julia could have a higher intensity when it
reaches the coast of Nicaragua than what is explicitly shown, since
in this forecast landfall would occur between the 12- and 24-hour
forecast times.  In fact, SHIPS guidance suggests the intensity
could be in the 75-80 kt range at 18 hours, which mirrors what was
shown in the previous NHC forecast.

Due to Julia's more southern and faster track, there is increasing
global model support that the cyclone will be able to maintain a
well-defined center and circulation while it crosses Central
America, and it could also still be at tropical storm intensity
when it reaches the Pacific side of Central America.  However, even
if it survives the crossing, most of the guidance shows the
circulation becoming more diffuse or dissipating over the Pacific
waters in 2 to 3 days.  Based on the updated NHC forecast, and to
account for the possibility of tropical-storm-force winds along the
Pacific coast of Central America, tropical storm warnings and
watches have been issued for the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua,
Honduras, and El Salvador.  Regardless of Julia's track and
existence as a tropical cyclone, the evolving set up is likely to
lead to heavy rains over Central America for several days, which
could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially
in areas of mountainous terrain.


Key Messages:

1. Julia is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane later today, and
a Hurricane Warning is in effect for portions of the Nicaragua coast
and the islands of Providencia and San Andres. Hurricane-force winds
and a dangerous storm surge are expected in areas where the core of
the system crosses the islands later today and moves onshore in
Nicaragua early Sunday morning.

2. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are expected across
portions of Central America this weekend.  Flash flooding is
possible across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico early next
week.

3. There is an increasing chance that Julia could remain as a
tropical storm while it moves across Central America, and tropical
storm warnings and watches have been issued along the Pacific
coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador to account for the
possibility of tropical-storm-force winds in those areas late
Sunday and Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/1500Z 12.6N  79.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  09/0000Z 12.5N  81.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  09/1200Z 12.5N  84.3W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND
 36H  10/0000Z 12.7N  86.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 48H  10/1200Z 13.2N  89.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER
 60H  11/0000Z 13.7N  91.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

[olafminesaw]

Looks like the core starting to organize, but may be a while before we see anything like an eyewall 

[hawkeye_wx]

Yeah, it's trying to form a CDO, but convection continues to be pushed south as it attempts to wrap around to the north side.

[Iceresistance]

Northerly Wind Shear is limiting Julia from being stronger, likely a good thing for Central America barring any unexpected organization. 

[Windspeed]

Northerly Wind Shear is limiting Julia from being stronger, likely a good thing for Central America barring any unexpected organization. 

Seems to be the case. Shear is just being too much of a deterrent for allowing Julia to resolve surface structural issues. Gonna bust hard on this one it seems. Would need RI to be occurring now. Starting to look unlikely.

[gymengineer]

The global models have been pretty unanimous for the past day or so that Julia would only appreciably strengthen in the window right before landfall. For multiple runs, they’ve been showing steady state until around 8 pm tonight. 

[yoda]

still a TS at 5... 70mph/992mb

[olafminesaw]

Finally wrapping convection around the center. Should be off to the races

[yoda]

^ Yeah, but its should be making landfall in several hours... took too long to get going

[MattPetrulli]

Seems like NHC satellite estimates were very close if not right on the money

 

[Hurricane Agnes]

Julia just upgraded to a Hurricane with the 7 pm update -

Quote

000
WTNT63 KNHC 082300
TCUAT3

Hurricane Julia Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132022
700 PM EDT Sat Oct 08 2022

...JULIA BECOMES A HURRICANE...

Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft 
indicate that Julia has become a hurricane with 75 mph (120 km/h) 
maximum sustained winds as it passes near San Andres and 
Providencia Islands.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM EDT...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 81.7W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM S OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND COLOMBIA
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM E OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Beven

 

[olafminesaw]

[hawkeye_wx]

Julia is getting that ready-to-take-off comma-shaped core this evening, but it's nearly out of time.

[yoda]

Barely a Cat 1 hurricane at 11pm... 75mph/988mb