Julia | 85 mph 982 mb peak | EPAC Crossover #2

[Floydbuster]

Lots of flooding being reported in Trinidad.

 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Whatever chance future Julia might have had to cross the Yucatan and be steered E or NE towards Florida/Eastern Gulf coast is fading fast as it stays S and stays weak.  GFS C. America landfall seems like a decent forecast.  Models and ensembles are coming into agreement on that.  Floridians probably don't mind a week or three of quiet weather.

 

Some GFS ensembles in S part of BOC after C.A. or the Yucatan, all seem Mexico bound

[Normandy]

Agree.  Unless there is a magical center redevelopment north I think this one stays buried low.  Lets see how it evolves today.

[DownNDirtyTN]

1 hour ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Whatever chance future Julia might have had to cross the Yucatan and be steered E or NE towards Florida/Eastern Gulf coast is fading fast as it stays S and stays weak.  GFS C. America landfall seems like a decent forecast.  Models and ensembles are coming into agreement on that.  Floridians probably don't mind a week or three of quiet weather.

 

Some GFS ensembles in S part of BOC after C.A. or the Yucatan, all seem Mexico bound

 

Selfishly I wouldn't mind a few weeks of calm in all of Florida. The last 3 fall vacations I've taken to Panama City Beach were: 

August 2016 (Olympics were going on) and I was there during a week when it rained like 15 inches. No cane but just torrential rainfall and flooding

September 2018 - ran out after a few days due to impending Hurricane Michael

September 2020 - ran out after a few days due to impending Hurricane Sally

So we shifted this year to coming down Oct 15 for 2 weeks this time. My last 3 tries have not been great results. 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

There seems a small chance, after flooding Central America, future Julia becomes an EPAC storm.  At 6 days, the ensembles and models aren't wildly divergent.  Brief emergence into BoC before second landfall, death by Central America, or EPac landfall seem the likely options. Should get a name in two days when it gets away from S America.

[Superstorm93]

 

 

[Superstorm93]

This one has a pretty decent shot at going ballistic once it nears 75 W 

I haven't seen a system look this good while over South America in a long time. 

[olafminesaw]

This system is very Reminiscent of Joan in 1988. Thankfully will likely be hitting a sparsely populated area and flooding as usual, will be the main threat

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Joan–Miriam

[olafminesaw]

It will be interesting to see the battle play out between that HAFS and the HWRF. A good test case

[GaWx]

18 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

It will be interesting to see the battle play out between that HAFS and the HWRF. A good test case

 With its Honduras landfall it is HF against not only the other hurricane models, but also against all of the dynamic models since they all have it landfall on Nicaragua.

 Edit: It appears that both the HF and the HWRF are too far north right now.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Be an interesting case if future Julia becomes an East Pac cyclone.  Just a bit S of NHC forecast could do it.

[Chinook]

Potential Tropical Cyclone 13 - Here is the first section of Discussion #1

Quote

Potential Tropical Cyclone Thirteen Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132022
1100 AM AST Thu Oct 06 2022

A broad area of low pressure continues to move westward across the 
far southeastern Caribbean Sea, with an expansive area of deep 
convection stretching across northern South America and the 
adjacent waters. 

...

 

[GaWx]

12Z UKMET a little stronger than 0Z run (keep in mind that this model is almost always biased weak in early stages) and has Nicaragua landfall even earlier by some 8 hours than 0Z run, by ~noon EDT on Sunday, and which is ~20 hours earlier than the run from 12Z yesterday!

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91L        ANALYSED POSITION : 11.8N  66.4W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL912022

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 06.10.2022    0  11.8N  66.4W     1008            29
    0000UTC 07.10.2022   12  11.7N  68.5W     1007            28
    1200UTC 07.10.2022   24  12.7N  71.2W     1007            36
    0000UTC 08.10.2022   36  13.3N  73.5W     1004            33
    1200UTC 08.10.2022   48  13.6N  77.1W     1003            34
    0000UTC 09.10.2022   60  13.6N  80.2W     1000            34
    1200UTC 09.10.2022   72  13.3N  82.8W      998            37
    0000UTC 10.10.2022   84  13.0N  84.7W     1000            31
    1200UTC 10.10.2022   96  13.0N  88.6W     1004            27
    0000UTC 11.10.2022  108              CEASED TRACKING

[olafminesaw]

Only six storms have passed within 50 miles of PTC 13 in the satellite era, of which, 5 became hurricanes and 2 became major hurricanes

[GaWx]

 This was upgraded to TD 13 at 11 PM EDT. It is forecasted to landfall in Nicaragua late morning Sunday at 75 knots/85 mph though as usual the potential for flooding from very heavy rainfall is the much bigger concern in CA as it was even with the extremely strong Eta, Iota, and Mitch among others:

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 11.9N 69.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 12.4N 72.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 13.0N 75.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 13.2N 78.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 13.2N 80.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 09/1200Z 13.3N 83.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 13.9N 85.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
96H 11/0000Z 15.5N 90.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

[jbenedet]

It’s a long shot, but with the barrage of deep troughs moving through the eastern CONUS, *if* TD13 heads towards the yucatan instead of Nicaragua there’s appreciable odds it eventually gets picked up and affects the CONUS. The latest GFS run hints at that possibility (albeit in a very confusing and complicated way).

Both the GFS and Euro ops showing a 2 std trough passing through the GOM, at day 6, during TD 13’s closest approach

[Windspeed]

This should be Julia on the next advisory package. Very intense hot tower going up right adjacent to the center that looks to be a formative eastern eyeband. You can make the outline based on GLM lightning data, which is pretty neat. This thing is about to go off.

[Windspeed]

Per 12z ATCF Best Track, this is now TS Julia, pending NHC following suite at the 11AM package.

[NavarreDon]

This should be Julia on the next advisory package. Very intense hot tower going up right adjacent to the center that looks to be a formative eastern eyeband. You can make the outline based on GLM lightning data, which is pretty neat. This thing is about to go off.

Recon seems to confirm.


.

[Windspeed]

Hilarious, no sooner than I posted that impressive hot tower above that did look like an eye band (core) forming... *splOOOOpF* The entire column collapses due to some northerly mid level shear. So this is likely to be a gradual process unless a core can establish sooner than later.

[Iceresistance]

Thanks for updating it to TD 13 @Scott747, I've come back and done the rest. 

Best Track has this as Julia, but can't change it to that until the NHC advisory confirms it as TS Julia

[NavarreDon]

000
WTNT43 KNHC 071455
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Julia Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022
1100 AM EDT Fri Oct 07 2022

Earlier this morning, a concentrated burst of deep convection with
a high density of lightning developed near the center of the
cyclone while it was over the Guajira Peninsula, and microwave
imagery shows that convective banding has increased somewhat over
the adjacent waters. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
currently investigating the system so far has found maximum 925-mb
flight-level winds of 47 kt and SFMR surface winds of 34 kt, and on
that basis, the depression is upgraded to a 35-kt tropical storm.

Based on the latest aircraft fix, Julia is moving a bit faster
toward the west than expected with an initial motion of 280/16 kt.
A strong east-northeast to west-southwest oriented ridge which
stretches into the southern Gulf of Mexico should keep Julia on a
quick westward path during the next 48 hours. Since the track
guidance has sped up a bit over the past few forecast cycles, the
official forecast now brings Julia to the coast of Nicaragua by
Sunday morning, which is a little sooner than was previously
forecast. After landfall, the track guidance currently indicates
that Julia and its remnants should remain over Central America and
southern Mexico through Tuesday.

Stiff north-northwesterly shear (15-20 kt) is affecting Julia, and
that can be seen in the suppression of the northern edge of the
recent convective burst. Shear diagnostics suggest that this shear
should abate soon, and Julia should commence a steady strengthening
trend during the next two days while it crosses the southwestern
Caribbean Sea. Julia is forecast to become a hurricane by Saturday
evening, and the forecast peak intensity at the time of landfall in
Nicaragua is unchanged from the previous advisory. The official
forecast at that time is a bit above HCCA and the IVCN consensus
aids, but it's still below SHIPS and LGEM guidance. The NHC
forecast shows 72- and 96-hour remnant low points to indicate the
expected track over Central America, but it is highly likely that
the center will have dissipated by those times.


Key Messages:

1. Julia is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane by Saturday
evening while it moves over the southwestern Caribbean Sea, and a
Hurricane Warning is now in effect for San Andres, Providencia, and
Santa Catalina Islands. A Hurricane Watch is also now in effect for
much of the Nicaragua coast. Hurricane-force winds and a dangerous
storm surge are expected in areas where the core of the system
crosses the islands and moves onshore.

2. The risk of flash flooding continues today over portions of the
Guajira Peninsula. The potential for life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides is expected to spread to portions of Central America
this weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 12.7N 73.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 13.0N 75.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 13.2N 78.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 13.1N 81.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 13.1N 83.6W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
60H 10/0000Z 13.6N 85.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 10/1200Z 14.5N 88.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 11/1200Z 16.2N 93.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg


.

[hawkeye_wx]

Models don't show Julia doing much for the next day or so while it's being sheared.  Much of the strengthening occurs as it approaches the coast of Nicaragua.

[Superstorm93]

Center now exposed on the northern edge of the convection 

 

 

[Floydbuster]

Here's a morning video on Julia for anyone interested
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZtWd1s4fm_g

[olafminesaw]

LLC racing off to the NW, now fully exposed 

[Iceresistance]

30 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

Here's a morning video on Julia for anyone interested
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZtWd1s4fm_g

You're not Hurricane Mike

[Windspeed]

Agree with Andy here that bands holding position north of the exposed center indicates shear is dropping fast, perhaps to around 10 kts. So the exposed center may be temporary as a remnant region of suppression where higher shear values earlier blew off/broke down mid level vorticity. Likely slow restructuring today and then as soon as a core is built this evening, more significant intensification should ensue.

[Normandy]

I am also interested in that developing system to the WSW of Julia near Panama...Wonder if we get some kind of fujiwhara action or does Julia eventually absorb that system?

[Windspeed]

Nice thread...