Julia | 85 mph 982 mb peak | EPAC Crossover #2

[NavarreDon]

Back to lemon from orange.




.

[Windspeed]

Despite the drop in %/color code for TCG potential, I'm sticking to favoring development of 91L sooner than later. Current convective activity may look anemic, however, these semi-permanent clusters of storms will aid in organizing a low level vorticity maximum if they can persist beyond diurnal maximum and into the day tomorrow. Sure, global op modeling remains meh, but visually 91L remains a vigorous wave with turning, albeit weak, that appears to have the ingredients for genesis. I still favor this becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean that will threaten CA.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Some of the 18Z Euro Ensembles seem to like it.  Not impressive on satellite, and they didn't even bother running 18Z HWRF or HMON.  The drop to Lemon status suggests the NHC doesn't really expect it to develop.

[GaWx]

35 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Some of the 18Z Euro Ensembles seem to like it.  Not impressive on satellite, and they didn't even bother running 18Z HWRF or HMON.  The drop to Lemon status suggests the NHC doesn't really expect it to develop.

 A clearcut uptick on the 18Z EPS vs the 12Z

[Tallis Rockwell]

I am wholly unimpressed with this setup, Some dust is going to move into the Caribbean over the next several days, and with shear remaining persistent, I don't see this turning into another major storm unless something changes, with little to no enthusiasm from the models, I don't understand the hype behind this system.

[Amped]

51 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Some of the 18Z Euro Ensembles seem to like it.  Not impressive on satellite, and they didn't even bother running 18Z HWRF or HMON.  The drop to Lemon status suggests the NHC doesn't really expect it to develop.

Not an immediate threat. Any development will not occur until the weekend in the central  Caribbean like some EPS and GEFS members are showing.

[cptcatz]

Solid convection this morning

[NorthHillsWx]

I was about to post that this looks better than the 20/30% odds NHC had for it, then noticed it got bumped back up to an orange at 8. If current convection persists into the afternoon this could be a cherry by tonight. I don’t expect additional development until it gets into the Caribbean but this one could, I suppose, spin up faster than models are showing given current appearance 

[TPAwx]

No threat to the US as this eventually goes into Central America, if it develops.

[jbenedet]

59 minutes ago, TPAwx said:

No threat to the US as this eventually goes into Central America, if it develops.

The eastern CONUS is a lot more like November right now vs early October. 

The reason I mention this, is November tropical climatology is when western Caribbean TC's get picked up by high amplitude troughs.  I definitely would watch this one despite current guidance consensus. 

Said differently, Carribean waves are the disturbances that pose CONUS threats given the current pattern. Storms that are further north are clearly OTS or sheared apart.

[cptcatz]

1 hour ago, TPAwx said:

No threat to the US as this eventually goes into Central America, if it develops.

Not a certainty, see 2020 hurricane Eta.

[Windspeed]

We are scheduled for recon this afternoon. If something is organizing under the convective canopy, we'll know then. There is presently good low-level convergence into that suspicious area of the northern dense blob. The old vort has been kicked out to the NW.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

GFS ensemble mean heights around 300 hours, fantasy land, enough Eastern/Great Lakes trough to possibly bend this N and then NE, with E Gulf as a possible target.  GFS ensembles, the few stronger members hit the Yucatan instead of Central America, and a couple of those recurve to the E Gulf.  Fantasy range stuff.  Euro ensembles are pretty much agreed on C. America.  October steering down there can get weird, I still remember Hurricane Mitch.

[NavarreDon]

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1150 AM EDT Tue Oct 4 2022

Special Tropical Weather Outlook to update discussion of the
tropical wave east of the Windward Islands

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:


East of the Windward Islands:
Updated: Visible satellite images and recent satellite-derived
wind data suggest that a broad low-level circulation could be
forming in association with the tropical wave located a few hundred
miles east of the southern Windward Islands. Although the wave
is currently being affected by strong upper-level winds, conditions
could become more conducive for a tropical depression to form while
moving westward at about 15 mph, crossing the Windward Islands
tonight and early Wednesday. Conditions appear to become more
conducive for development later this week when the system reaches
the central and western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected over portions of
the Windward Islands tonight and Wednesday. Interests in the
Windward Islands, the ABC Islands, and the northern coast of
Venezuela should monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to
investigate this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg


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[GaWx]

2 hours ago, jbenedet said:

The eastern CONUS is a lot more like November right now vs early October. 

The reason I mention this, is November tropical climatology is when western Caribbean TC's get picked up by high amplitude troughs.  I definitely would watch this one despite current guidance consensus. 

Said differently, Carribean waves are the disturbances that pose CONUS threats given the current pattern. Storms that are further north are clearly OTS or sheared apart.

Actually per early October climo, much less November climo, the CONUS is more often than not threatened as per what I posted yesterday about October 1-10 geneses 1851-2021 from 50W westward to the W Caribbean:

"So, out of the grand total of 51 looked at, only 9 (18%) buried themselves into CA while 33 (65%) or 3.6 times as many hit the CONUS (majority as a H). The main point is that IF there is going to be TCG from this, we shouldn't assume at this very early stage that it would bury itself in CA regardless of what the model consensus may suggest. The models of course may still be right as 18% is not a tiny percent and I'm not saying to bet on a US hit, but history says don't bet the farm on a CA burial this early especially due to the lack of model reliability that far out!"

[GaWx]

1. 12Z GFS is the strongest yet as of hour 144. Also, the 12Z ICON has it the strongest yet of any of its runs. The 12Z CMC has another strong run.

2. The 12Z UKMET is the first of its runs with TCG from this, at hour 138 east of Nicaragua moving westward:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 12.8N  80.8W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 10.10.2022  144  12.8N  81.8W     1006            27

[tiger_deF]

[Normandy]

As more time passes that vort is looking more like an eddy.  the real show is SE.

[Dbullsfan22]

just let me know when it is supposed to hit Tampa 

[Superstorm93]

Now 40/70

MLC looks like it wants to work down to the surface. 

East of the Windward Islands:
A broad area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles east
of the southern Windward Islands is producing an area of showers
and thunderstorms to the southeast of an ill-defined center.  
Upper-level winds are likely to become more conducive for
development, and a tropical depression could form during the next
couple of days, if the system stays far enough away from land while
moving westward at about 15 mph across the Windward Islands and
southeastern Caribbean Sea.  Conditions appear to become more
conducive for development later this week when the system reaches
the central and western Caribbean Sea.  Regardless of development,
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected over portions
of the Windward Islands tonight and Wednesday.  Interests in the
Windward Islands, the ABC Islands, and the northern coast of
Venezuela should monitor the progress of this system.  An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently investigating this
system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

 

[GaWx]

Along with the 12 runs of the UKMET, ICON, and GFS, the 12Z Euro has its strongest run yet with this with it landfalling in Nicaragua as a strong TS at 120. Also, the 12Z CMC has a H as earlier mentioned.

[Superstorm93]

Basically all the 12z runs now show something developing in the WCARB

 

 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

I don't think recon will find a closed center.  There was a wind shift with the little naked swirl that popped out earlier, but that doesn't seem likely to develop.

[Normandy]

Still very much in the formative stages but you can see it’s there.  Lots of inflow on the south and west side into the MLC. I’d wager by tomorrow morning we have a TD.

[WxSynopsisDavid]

8 hours ago, TheGhostOfJohnBolaris said:

Didn’t Ian initially show the same thing? Slamming into the Yucatán?

Yup there were several runs showing that

[Iceresistance]

Chances still getting higher, 60/80%

[Amped]

Gfs is pure hurricane porn.  Slow wnw track, just keeps getting bigger and stronger as it moves towards the Yucatan.

[Windspeed]

This thing is pulling a Bonnie. It did not consolidate at a high enough latitude as I thought it would. Therefore unless the axis lifts/folds north, land interaction with SA will keep it in check until it clears Colombia. May still become a hurricane / develop rapidly then, but significantly limits developmental time.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Elongated trough with no real closed circulation, judging from recon.  Above post is likely right, it doesn't matter what the pattern is over North America, it will remain too far S and too weak to get pulled into the Gulf.  Probably CA S of the Yucatan.

[Windspeed]

Elongated trough with no real closed circulation, judging from recon.  Above post is likely right, it doesn't matter what the pattern is over North America, it will remain too far S and too weak to get pulled into the Gulf.  Probably CA S of the Yucatan.

It is tighter and more consolidated than a trough. That's a sharp wind shift and there is a circulation there, it's just weak. The promixity to the SA coastline may inhibit it from organizing into a TC however.