Julia | 85 mph 982 mb peak | EPAC Crossover #2

[Iceresistance]

(I won't be here very much, if one of the mods/admins can change the title for me when I'm gone for updates, that would be very helpful for me.  )

The NHC now has an AOI in the Central Atlantic that may develop in the Eastern Caribbean, this could be another monster in the Caribbean. Where it will go exactly is a different question. The Ensembles have this storm into Central America or Florida, again. 

I'm personally thinking that we could have an absolute beast in the Caribbean again, but this time. The peak intensity appears to be in the Caribbean. 

There is no Cold-Water Trail left by Ian, OHC is still really high in the Western Caribbean.
Wind Shear is low in the Caribbean (It was higher by Fiona's outflow when Ian first formed)
Very little to no Dry Air or SAL

 

[GaWx]

 This MDR wave ranks up with the precursors to Bonnie, Fiona, and Ian as regards the amount of MDR convection and it appears to have some organization. Thus I think its chances of resulting in a TC at some point are rather high though predicting later destinations (IF TCG occurs at some point) whether CA, CONUS, both, and/or other places (including a sharp recurve east of the CONUS with or without landfall elsewhere) is quite a challenge to say the least at this very early pre-TC stage. Just think about how difficult Ian was to predict just two days out from FL as a very strong hurricane!
 

 My favorite model of late, the UKMET, currently doesn't have TC genesis from this at 0Z though it is often conservative as regards genesis. I'll be looking to see whether the 12Z as well as future runs do the same.

 
 Fwiw, the 12Z GFS at hour 48 (near 54W in the MDR) along with the 6Z are the two most active runs of that model with this at that location. So, its subtle trend suggests it may be just now starting to catch onto it.

[jconsor]

How much troughiness is left in the E. US after day 10 may play a role if this possible TC slows down and hangs around long enough in the W. Caribbean or over C. America.
 

 

[GaWx]

 The 12Z UKMET, like its prior runs, has no TC genesis formally noted. But as I said, it is often conservative with TCG and thus often misses genesis. If it ever shows TCG for this, that would be noteworthy to me.

 Meanwhile, the 12Z CMC fwiw has a hurricane in the central and western Caribbean. This is by far its strongest run with this so far. Even the worst models sometimes give worthy hints.

*Edit:  The 12Z GEFS as measured by both the mean precipitation and the individual members looks to me to be about the most active GEFS run yet in and near the eastern Caribbean.

[Iceresistance]

This system may have strong outflow already! 

[GaWx]

27 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

This system may have strong outflow already! 

Indeed, outflow is already looking strong!

 The series of NHC climo maps showing the history of tracks for ten day genesis periods going back to 1851 is often a good tool to keep in the back of one's mind to try to help in forecasting discussions like this.

 The link below is to geneses during OCT 1-10, which would more than likely be the period to cover this one should it form. It suggests that the best chances to form would be either early (mainly between 50W and the LAs) or later in the Caribbean west of 70W (assuming it gets there).

 Since that link goes only to 2015, I'll point out that a whopping four TCs from just the last six seasons had genesis during OCT 1-10 in the W Caribbean:

 -Nate of 2017
 -Michael of 2018
 -Delta and Gamma of 2020 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/oct_1_10.png

[cptcatz]

According to Tropical Tidbits this is now 91L.

[Iceresistance]

20 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

According to Tropical Tidbits this is now 91L.

Yes, it is now 91L

[Windspeed]

Carribean runner. I actually like development of this system and a hurricane landfall somewhere from the Rivera Maya, Yucatan, down to Nicaragua. Outflow looks really great. There will be some enhancement by an ULL to the north that may aid TCG. But then may impart a window of shear. By the time the system is south of the DR, however, conditions will support a strong hurricane all the way into CA.

[GaWx]

Thanks, ice. The 12Z EPS, though its mean is not nearly as active as the 12Z GEFS, did have a slight increase vs the 0Z EPS with several members having hurricanes vs none that I could see on the 0Z. More than likely, the Euro suite is underdone imho on the chances of this ending up as a strong TC by the W Caribbean although the GEFS could easily be overdone in the E Caribbean especially.

[Iceresistance]

The OP models generally want to have none of this, which is leading me to suggest that we may have spotted a sleeper system. 

[hlcater]

GEFS likes this one as well

[Amped]

I'd feel much better about it's long term prospects if it didn't have the ULL to survive.    It will likely reverse most of the organization that occurs in the next 36hrs.

 

 

[WxSynopsisDavid]

Deja vu all over again, this early track consensus reminds me of the early days of Ian. Though this system should track more to the north and not into South America, its very interesting to say the least 

[Iceresistance]

18 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

Deja vu all over again, this early track consensus reminds me of the early days of Ian. Though this system should track more to the north and not into South America, its very interesting to say the least 

I'm thinking more westward than northward component because the Hurricane Season in the Gulf of Mexico is possibly over (Can't call it over yet). My general idea is like Ian's track except for more westward after getting closer to Cuba. 

[WxSynopsisDavid]

Let's hope your theory is right because SST's in the Gulf are still 85+ and there is still a pocket of high Ocean Heat Content

[Iceresistance]

25 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

Let's hope your theory is right because SST's in the Gulf are still 85+ and there is still a pocket of high Ocean Heat Content

Lots of Dry air in the Northern GoM right now, which is why it's very hostile to Tropical Cyclones. 

[cptcatz]

18z GEFS backing way off. Strange system we have. 

[MJO812]

[WxSynopsisDavid]

2 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

Lots of Dry air in the Northern GoM right now, which is why it's very hostile to Tropical Cyclones. 

Across the northern Gulf, yes. But I wouldn't write the Gulf off yet. A path into southern FL or southern TX is still on the table if a system could stay across the southern Gulf. Also, we seen recently with Fiona and Ian that if these systems can RI and establish a deep core with convection upshear they can become resilient to not only shear but mix out dry air from the CDO. A lot of uncertainties remain and its way too early to say for sure what's going to happen. Let's hope the 18z GFS is right 

[MattPetrulli]

7 hours ago, hlcater said:

GEFS likes this one as well

GEFS inconsistency takes years off my life

That being said if something goes down in Caribbean as others have stated I think it's more of a Central America threat but our models stink so anything is possible.

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, MattPetrulli said:

GEFS inconsistency takes years off my life

That being said if something goes down in Caribbean as others have stated I think it's more of a Central America threat but our models stink so anything is possible.

 

 We're still far enough out for climo/history to be a somewhat useful tool to consider. I looked at all TC geneses Oct 1-10 since 1851. I focused on the CONUS. Before I give the track stats, here's the overall picture via the map for 1851-2015 tracks for geneses Oct 1-10:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/oct_1_10.png

 Here are the stats:

  First, I looked at geneses in the central to western Caribbean. I counted 44. Out of these 44, 31 or 70% later landfalled on the CONUS. Only 7 (16%) buried themselves into CA and only 5 (11%) recurved E of the CONUS. There was one (2%) that dissipated in the GOM.

- 21 of these 31 landfalls hit in FL and 6 hit in LA
- 19 of these 31 landfalls hit as a H
-  5 of these 19 H landfalls hit as a MH
-  3 of these 31 landfalls were during the eight 3rd year cold ENSO analog seasons: 
      - Isabel of 1985: hit FL/GA border as a TS
      - #5 of 1910: hit SW FL as a H
      - #5 of 1894: hit FL Panhandle as a H

 Second, I looked at the 7 geneses between the LAs and 50W that moved westward well into the Caribbean:
 - 2 of those 7 (29%) landfalled on the CONUS: one was Hazel of 1954 as a MH at the SC/NC border and the other was #6 of 1879 that hit the FL Panhandle as a TS
 - 2 of those 7 (29%) buried themselves into CA
 - 2 recurved barely east of the CONUS and 1 dissipated in the Caribbean

  So, out of the grand total of 51 looked at, only 9 (18%) buried themselves into CA while 33 (65%) or 3.6 times as many hit the CONUS (majority as a H). The main point is that IF there is going to be TCG from this, we shouldn't assume at this very early stage that it would bury itself in CA regardless of what the model consensus may suggest. The models of course may still be right as 18% is not a tiny percent and I'm not saying to bet on a US hit, but history says don't bet the farm on a CA burial this early especially due to the lack of model reliability that far out!

 To look at it in another way: had today's models been available, how many of the 42 TCs that didn't get buried in CA would have shown burial in CA at this early stage?

[Iceresistance]

I swear the accuracy of ASCAT is worse than a Star Wars Stormtrooper.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

For whatever reason, (I see some shear but not horrible), ensembles are not very enthusiastic.  Lost a lot of the convection, but the vorticity is rather evident.

[Windspeed]

For whatever reason, (I see some shear but not horrible), ensembles are not very enthusiastic.  Lost a lot of the convection, but the vorticity is rather evident.

Very evident mid-level rotation. There does appear to be low-level westerlies on the southside of the wave axis. Really nice moist envelope. Despite lack of early enthusiastic modeling, I'm still on the TCG train. Just needs to fire and sustain convection near the nascent center. The positioning of the axis folding is far enough south of the ULL/upper trough to avoid hinderance as far as strong shear. There may still be shear in the eastern Caribbean for a short window to deal with, but I really like this system to take off in the short term, then perhaps a steady state until the TC gets south of the Greater Antilles. Hopefully we'll get a recon flight out there in the next day or so.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

16 minutes ago, TheGhostOfJohnBolaris said:

 GFS with a monster just south of the Yucatan at 312

End of the run, adding salt, but a trough turns it N into the Gulf, and extrapolating past 384, towards the Central or Eastern Gulf.  Ensembles may be interesting...

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

41 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

End of the run, adding salt, but a trough turns it N into the Gulf, and extrapolating past 384, towards the Central or Eastern Gulf.  Ensembles may be interesting...

GFS storm is clear on the op by 228 hours, literally zero support at that time from ensembles.

[NavarreDon]

Looks like we have a unassigned flight enroute?


.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

31 minutes ago, NavarreDon said:

Looks like we have a unassigned flight enroute?


.

That could be tomorrow's flight forward deploying to the USVI.  I also noted a 53rd WRS plane flying from Curacao during Ian.

[Amped]

Icon is trying to develop something at 120hrs in the S central Caribbean.  This is close to what the EPS members had.  If 90L develops it will be this weekend or early next week after it gets past the ULL.